{"id":12814,"date":"2024-08-05T14:49:32","date_gmt":"2024-08-05T11:49:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/?p=12814"},"modified":"2024-09-10T09:31:00","modified_gmt":"2024-09-10T06:31:00","slug":"navigating-shifts-change-and-continuity-in-iranian-foreign-policy-under-pezeshkian","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/centre-for-researches-and-studies\/navigating-shifts-change-and-continuity-in-iranian-foreign-policy-under-pezeshkian\/","title":{"rendered":"Navigating Shifts: Change and Continuity in Iranian Foreign Policy Under Pezeshkian"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Introduction<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran has witnessed a significant political change with the election of the new \u201creformist\u201d President Masoud Pezeshkian, following the death of former President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in western Iran. Therefore, examining the contours of change in Iran\u2019s foreign policy under the new president is crucial. Iran\u2019s foreign policy holds greater salience as the country is an influential player in both regional and international affairs, possessing significant geopolitical weight and influence due to its geographical location, economic capabilities, and human resources. Furthermore, it is involved in numerous complex regional and international issues that impact its foreign relations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The victory of the \u201creformist\u201d president, following years of \u201cconservative\u201d dominance in the presidency, raises several questions: what is the extent of the president\u2019s influence on various aspects of foreign policy including its substance, formulation, implementation and outcomes? What are the anticipated features, challenges, and opportunities for the new president\u2019s foreign policy? Additionally, what new achievements can President Pezeshkian bring to the realm of foreign relations, particularly concerning the three main contentious issues: nuclear negotiations, the ballistic missile program, and support for loyalist groups? Finally, developments in Iran\u2019s relations with the Gulf states and neighboring countries will be closely observed during this new period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran\u2019s Foreign Policy Dimensions Under President Pezeshkian<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the ascendance of a new political leader, a country\u2019s foreign policy is determined by his proposals, campaign statements, and electoral programs related to the outside world as well as remarks made after winning the presidency. In the case of the new Iranian president, the central feature of his foreign policy emphasizes \u201cdialogue and openness to the outside world,\u201d following a pragmatic approach that seeks to realign ideology with national interests. This shift aims to lift economic sanctions, which would help mitigate the severity of isolation and economic siege, providing a more effective option for addressing anti-regime protests in Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to President Pezeshkian\u2019s vision,[1]<\/a> openness to the outside world contributes to creating a favorable environment for improving deteriorating living and economic conditions, enhancing economic growth, and curbing migration as the nation seeks to rebuild. However, it is important to acknowledge that exceptions arise due to the nature of the presidential role in Iran, where the desires and orientations of the supreme leader significantly influence the president\u2019s decisions and choices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pezeshkian\u2019s speech during his first televised debate in the second round of the presidential elections on July 1, 2024, emphasized the need for compromise and engagement with opponents to resolve outstanding differences. He stated, \u201cWe must sit down and compromise to solve our problems with the world,\u201d further explaining, \u201cMy foreign policy aims for the prosperity of the people and encourages them to survive, build, grow economically, and develop.\u201d[2]<\/a> In his article titled \u201cMy Message to the New World,\u201d published in English on July 12, 2024, on the Tehran Times website, he identifies the principle of interest as a fundamental tenet of his foreign policy, asserting that his government\u2019s approach will be guided by the principles of \u201cdignity, wisdom, and interest.\u201d[3]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new president\u2019s appointment of former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to head the Strategic Council responsible for nominating officials and ministers for the president, along with the increasing likelihood of each of the following: Abbas Araghchi, the chief Iranian negotiator in the government of former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani; Ali Akbar Salehi, the former Iranian foreign minister, and Majid Takht-Ravanchi, Iran\u2019s ambassador to the United Nations, assuming the duties of the Foreign Ministry portfolio, provides significant evidence of the new president\u2019s pragmatic approach to international relations, particularly regarding nuclear negotiations. This scenario mirrors the Rouhani-Zarif approach toward the Europeans and Americans. The following are the most prominent features of his anticipated foreign policy agenda:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prioritizing Regional Relations<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The regional sphere is a key priority within the framework of the openness policy that President Pezeshkian has articulated. In his statements, debates and articles, he has identified the regional neighborhood as the first circle essential to improving Iran\u2019s foreign relations. Consequently, it is anticipated that the new administration will continue the regional policies of the late President Raisi regarding the enhancement of relations with neighboring countries. This continuation aligns with the directives of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who, in his message to the people on July 6, 2024, following President Pezeshkian\u2019s election victory, stated, \u201cI recommend that Dr. Pezeshkian, the elected president, look to distant and bright horizons by trusting in God and continuing the path of the late Raisi.\u201d[4]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

President Pezeshkian advocates for the establishment of a \u201cregional framework\u201d aimed at fostering dialogue, building confidence, promoting sustainable development, and ensuring peace through collaborative regional efforts. He envisions the creation of a \u201cstrong region\u201d governed by diplomacy rather than force, drawing on the shared values, peaceful Islamic traditions, and abundant resources present among the countries of the region. According to President Pezeshkian, this framework will enhance peaceful initiatives, restore calm and create a stable regional environment, promote sustainable development, and resolve conflicts that drain resources and squander wealth. Harnessing these resources will bolster regional capabilities and enable collective responses to common challenges and foreign interventions, allowing the region to exert significant influence in the emerging multipolar world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In light of this vision, the following trends are expected:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Continued Strengthening of Arab-Iranian Relations<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is likely that Iranian efforts to bolster relations with Arab and Gulf countries, particularly with the Saudi Arabia, will continue. In his writings, Pezeshkian emphasized his ambition to cooperate with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and Iraq, aiming to enhance joint cooperation within regional organizations to deepen economic, trade, and investment relations.[5]<\/a> This vision aligns with the supreme leader\u2019s guidance to the new president to follow in the footsteps of the late Raisi regarding foreign relations. Furthermore, Pezeshkian has received congratulatory messages from leaders and presidents of most Arab and Gulf countries, reflecting their desire to collaborate with the new president.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Continuity of Hostile Relations With Israel<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new Iranian president\u2019s perspective on Israel reflects a continuation of hostile relations, as he believes that the policy of openness will extend to all capitals of the world except Tel Aviv. In his article, he asserts that \u201cIsrael remains an apartheid regime to this day, now adding \u2018genocide\u2019 to a record already marred by occupation, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, settlement-building, nuclear weapons possession, illegal annexation, and aggression against its neighbors.\u201d[6]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In his article, the new president outlines several paths for action against Israel. The first is to collaborate with Arab countries to establish a permanent ceasefire in Gaza to halt the ongoing massacre and prevent the escalation of the conflict. The second is to work toward ending the Israeli occupation, which has devastated the lives of four generations of Palestinians; all countries have a binding duty under the 1948 Genocide Convention to take necessary measures to prevent genocide. The third is to urge countries to sever relations with Israel and avoid rewarding it by normalizing ties with Tel Aviv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ongoing hostile relations between Tehran and Tel Aviv signify the intractability of the conflict, with Israel persisting in its aggressive policies in the Middle East while Iran continues to support what it terms the \u201caxis of resistance,\u201d using the Palestinian cause to further its expansionist goals. Pezeshkian\u2019s stance on the normalization issue places Iran in a dilemma, as it seeks to balance its desire to strengthen relations with Arab and Gulf states while rejecting normalization with Israel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran\u2019s Regional Project \u2014 an Immutable Red Line<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new president understands that the Iranian expansionist project and its strategic lever, represented by the axis of resistance, falls within the ruling establishment\u2019s red lines. Therefore, during his conversation with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, as well as in his messages to both Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and the head of the Hamas Political Bureau, he declared his commitment to providing unwavering support to the resistance fronts in the Middle East. For instance, his message to Nasrallah included, \u201cIran has always supported the resistance of the peoples of the region against the illegitimate Zionist entity. Support for the resistance is rooted in the established policies of the Iranian regime, the ideals of Khomeini, and the directives of the supreme leader, and it will continue with force.\u201d[7]<\/a> Many observers view Pezeshkian\u2019s stance on the axis of resistance as a realistic reflection of Khamenei\u2019s instructions and an indicator of the seemingly positive relationship between the new president and Khamenei. This is evident not only from Khamenei\u2019s praise for Pezeshkian, along with his recommendation to the Parliament on July 22, 2024, to approve the ministerial cabinet of Pezeshkian\u2019s government, but also from Pezeshkian\u2019s announcements during debates expressing his support for the supreme leader\u2019s directives, describing Khamenei\u2019s leadership as wise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, Pezeshkian appears to enjoy a strong rapport with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which is illustrated by several key moments. The first was his public display of support for the IRGC following the death of IRGC Commander Qassem Soleimani in a US airstrike near Baghdad International Airport in early 2020, where he donned the IRGC uniform and wore his signature scarf around his neck. The second was his significant praise for Soleimani during his election debates, where he referred to him as a national hero, stating, \u201cOne of the reasons that prevents others from taking any action against Iran is the presence of the IRGC.\u201d[8]<\/a> Thirdly, he visited Soleimani\u2019s family at their home, stating, \u201cSoleimani was a national and popular figure for the Islamic world. He had a transcendent view of sectarianism and did not categorize people into specific groups. We must solve the country\u2019s problems by following the path and example of martyr Soleimani.\u201d[9]<\/a> Lastly, the positive sentiments expressed by IRGC commanders\uf02a<\/a> regarding Pezeshkian\u2019s victory were reflected in the congratulatory meeting held on July 14, 2024, where IRGC Commander Hossein Salami stated, \u201cThe IRGC are ready to cooperate with Pezeshkian to implement Khamenei\u2019s policies.\u201d[10]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Return to Policies of Dialogue and Openness to the West<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the new president\u2019s proposals, he aims to return to the path of openness toward the West. He believes that the path of isolation has hindered the achievement of the ultimate goal set by the supreme leader: transforming Iran into the leading regional power in all fields by the year 2025.[11]<\/a> Therefore, he argues that the political philosophy of economic resistance, adopted by the late President Raisi to render the sanctions ineffective, will not alleviate the impact of sanctions, improve living conditions, or reduce the popular protests, as it is a long-term strategy. Instead, the current crises in Iran require immediate and rapid solutions, which can only be achieved through the lifting of sanctions and the provision of substantial financial aid that contributes to improving the country\u2019s economic and living standards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To achieve this goal, Pezeshkian is working on resuming talks with the West, as explained below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reviving Nuclear Talks<\/em><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new president believes that reviving nuclear negotiations is an urgent priority aimed at lifting the sanctions that are burdening the Iranian economy. He argues that returning to the nuclear agreement would have a significantly positive impact on Iran, alleviating daily losses caused by the inability to increase oil exports amid growing popular discontent and tension. In Pezeshkian\u2019s view, this situation is what prompted the former US president to withdraw from the agreement in 2018.[12]<\/a> Consequently, some of the most prominent promises made by Pezeshkian during his election campaign include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n