Background and Context<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nZarif\u2019s vision is significant due to the current context and the critical moment that Iran is facing both internally and externally. Internally, the situation has dramatically worsened because of the economic challenges and difficult living conditions that Iranians are experiencing amid sanctions, pressures, and isolation from the outside world. This complexity puts considerable pressure on the ruling establishment, adversely impacting its overall political structure that has witnessed the gradual erosion of its effectiveness and efficiency over the course of more than four decades. The government is now facing a highly challenging transitional phase, particularly following Khamenei\u2019s tenure. His succession has become uncertain and extremely complicated, especially after Raisi\u2019s death.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the regional level, Zarif\u2019s vision emerges amid uncertainty regarding Iran\u2019s regional project, which has seen substantial investments over the past four decades. Iran is on the brink of losing some of its regional influence, particularly among proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and various armed factions in Syria. The campaign targeting this project and Iranian influence may also diminish the effectiveness of the IRGC in conducting operations beyond Iran\u2019s borders, including activities involving Iraqi militias and the Houthi group in Yemen. Consequently, Iran\u2019s borders and sovereignty have become more vulnerable than ever. This suggests that the strategy of forward defense has not succeeded in protecting Iran\u2019s borders and sovereignty. While Iran has attempted to maintain a balance by launching counterstrikes against Israel and indirect actions against the United States, it cannot sustain a long-term escalation due to imbalances in military and economic power, as well as the influence of international alliances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the international level, Trump\u2019s return to power and his Cabinet nominations signal hostile intentions toward Iran and perhaps a more coordinated policy than the strategy of maximum pressure pursued by Trump during his first term. It also suggests greater coordination with European parties this time due to the Iranian-Russian role in the ongoing war in Ukraine and the recent developments regarding the Iranian nuclear program, with Iran moving ever closer to reaching the nuclear threshold. The West has a negative view of the Iranian role in threatening security and stability in the Middle East and strategic sea lanes in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since Raisi\u2019s death, two conflicting trends within the Iranian establishment have competed to influence the direction of Iranian domestic policy. The first is the \u201chardliner\u201d current which is guided by the dictates of ideology and seeks to challenge and confront reality through Iran embracing a radical conservative policy. The supporters of this current have gone to the extent of advocating for a change in Iran\u2019s nuclear doctrine. This demand has been met with widespread international condemnation and concern. The choices of this current have ultimately led Iran to a historical impasse. The second current is much more realistic with it considering pragmatic choices to break the longstanding deadlock that Iran is experiencing at home and abroad. The first current represents the views of the IRGC, clerics, some legislators and those loyal to the supreme leader. The second current represents the \u201creformists\u201d and what can be referred to as the current of openness and dialogue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Zarif is at the heart of this realistic trend and has been one of its theorists and policy strategists since he was foreign minister in Rouhani\u2019s government. He is the architect of the 2015 nuclear deal and spearheaded the approach of engaging in dialogue and reaching understandings with the West. His return to the Pezeshkian government as a shadow man who will play an influential role in shaping Iran\u2019s strategic policy at the external level is nothing but an appointment engineered by the supreme leader to devise a realistic policy to help in overcoming Iran\u2019s current predicament, especially after the Gaza war. Zarif\u2019s presence as an active element in Iran\u2019s foreign policy is based on internal consensus created by the supreme leader among the two currents. He will count on Zarif to steer an effective policy through which the Iranian establishment can ensure its survival and avoid losses that could overthrow the ruling establishment and cost the country its religious identity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iran\u2019s Comprehensive Vision of Regional Security<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nIn his article, Zarif introduced a vision of regional security and stability based on several pillars, most notably:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n- –Achieving stability<\/strong>: According to Zarif, stability can be secured by improving relations with neighboring countries and creating a regional order that promotes strength, wealth, security, economic integration, freedom of navigation, environmental protection, and interfaith dialogue. This signals a vision that goes beyond security to economic cooperation and cultural and civilizational dialogue to overcome the sectarian barrier that has dominated Iran\u2019s relationship with the countries of the region over the past decades.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- – New<\/strong> <\/strong>arrangements for regional security<\/strong>: These arrangements depend on reducing dependence on external powers, addressing conflicts through dispute resolution mechanisms, and replicating the Helsinki process in the region which sought to reduce tensions in Europe between the Soviet and Western blocs during the Cold War and led to the formation of \u00a0the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Zarif also called for implementing the mandate that the UN Security Council gave to the UN secretary-general in 1987, under Resolution 598 \u2014 which ended the Iran-Iraq War, \u00a0as a legal basis for measures to enhance security and stability in the Arab \u00a0Gulf.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- – Integrating<\/strong> <\/strong>Iran<\/strong> <\/strong>instead<\/strong> <\/strong>of the Abraham<\/strong> <\/strong>Accords<\/strong>: \u00a0Zarif believes that these agreements have proved ineffective in isolating and besieging Iran. Therefore, he believes that it is necessary to get rid of them. He believes that the integration of Iran is what must be relied upon and that this can be done by addressing the roots of the conflict, \u00a0and accepting \u00a0Iran as part of the regional project. Zarif addressed the region\u2019s countries by saying that all countries are interested in overcoming \u00a0the underlying causes of regional unrest.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- The settlement of the Palestinian question<\/strong>: Zarif believes that Iran and the Arab countries unanimously agree on resolving the Palestinian issue. \u00a0In this context, Zarif introduced a more nuanced approach that differs drastically from the official Iranian anti-Israel rhetoric. However, he stressed ending the occupation and the inability of the occupation to eradicate grassroots resistance movements. He presented Iran as a constructive player in settling the conflict and reaching a permanent and democratic solution, which does not deny the presence of Jews in the Palestinian territories, a position that the ruling establishment has embraced. \u00a0Zarif proposes a referendum in which everyone living between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean \u2014 Muslims, Christians, Jews, and even the Palestinian diaspora \u2014 \u00a0would be able to participate in determining a viable future system of governance.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
\n- \u00a0A framework for Gulf security<\/strong>: Zarif believes that constructive engagement with Iran and a commitment to multilateral diplomacy can build a framework for global security and stability in the Arab Gulf. This system, Zarif believes, can reduce tensions and foster long-term prosperity and development.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- \u00a0The role of external powers<\/strong>: Regarding the relationship with the United States, Zarif believes that Western pressure on Iran is futile and that this policy is counterproductive. Zarif believes that \u00a0after Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal, the Iranian nuclear program \u00a0entered an uncertain phase. Zarif holds Trump responsible for this phase. \u00a0Furthermore, he states \u00a0that dependence on external powers in the region should be reduced. Despite the challenges, he proposes reviving the nuclear deal if Iran benefits from its advantages.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Implications and Messages<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nZarif\u2019s article holds important implications and messages, most notably the following:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n- –\u00a0A more comprehensive vision<\/strong>: Iran\u2019s regional initiatives have always been fragmented, \u00a0such as the Hormuz Peace Initiative or the previous initiatives for dialogue with the Gulf states. However, Zarif\u2019s vision seems to be more integrated and comprehensive. It includes all Arab countries. It puts forward a vision regarding the most complex issue in the region, the Palestinian issue. However, this vision does not correspond to the Arab proposal to settle the issue through the Arab Initiative. Moreover, Zarif\u2019s vision comes amid mounting pressure on Iran, and its realistic basis does not push Iran to make far-fetched promises and ensures that \u00a0its \u00a0political rhetoric and agenda align with new approaches and behavior in the region.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- \u00a0– The desire to open up<\/strong>: There is a growing sense of realism in determining Iran\u2019s foreign policy and awareness of the seriousness of the current situation. \u00a0Zarif\u2019s vision is consistent with many initiatives made by Iran regarding \u00a0dialogue and openness. Notably, in November 2024, \u00a0Iran received the International Atomic Energy Agency Director General\u00a0 Rafael Grossi and proposed cooperation on the suspension of uranium enrichment and the return of international inspectors to work in Iran. \u00a0In addition, Iran has engaged in\u00a0 dialogue with the European countries that participated \u00a0in the nuclear deal. The two sides discussed the \u00a0Iranian nuclear program, Iran-Russia relations, and Iran\u2019s influence in the Middle East.\u00a0 Zarif\u2019s article reflects the momentum of the policy of openness and dialogue that the Pezeshkian\u00a0government aims to pursue.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
\n- A change of approach and\u00a0 preparations for Trump 2.0<\/strong>: This momentum in openness and dialogue with the enemy would not have been possible without the authorization of Khamenei. The election of \u201creformist\u201d Pezeshkian through an electoral process that many believed was engineered, was done to diminish \u00a0the pressure on Iran and in anticipation of Trump\u2019s return to the White House. Therefore, Zarif, the strategic mind of the Pezeshkian government, is responsible for crafting a flexible policy based on diplomatic engagement and dialogue instead of an aggressive and \u00a0confrontational approach. This could \u00a0help Iran avoid the expected wave of escalation, quell Trump\u2019s anger and desire for revenge, and contain his aggressive approach. All this clears the way for a possible change at the international and regional levels.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- – An opportunity<\/strong> <\/strong>for change<\/strong>: Zarif could not have written his article without internal and institutional consultation due to his official post. Therefore, his \u00a0vision reflects the outlook of the Pezeshkian government. \u00a0Suppose it is true that there is strong support for Zarif\u2019s vision,\u00a0 especially from the most influential parties such as the \u00a0supreme leader and the National Security Council, then in this case, \u00a0there is a clear prospect for a significant breakthrough in the barrier that Iran has built with the West and region. \u00a0This article \u00a0is a signal to internal and external audiences. Accordingly, Iran can be integrated, especially as the international arena witnesses \u00a0cooperative and competitive relations. These different styles of relations \u00a0can be managed to achieve common interests and reduce tensions. The regional states adopt\u00a0 independent foreign policies that favor \u00a0collective action when it comes \u00a0to new arrangements to achieve\u00a0 national interests rather than seeking to entrench the hegemony of \u00a0international powers.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- – Alignment with the Saudi vision<\/strong>: The new Saudi policy has positively impacted the region, including Iran. As a result, Saudi Arabia has emerged as a pivotal regional and international player in promoting stability and peace in accordance with its Vision 2030 goals. \u00a0It has strengthened its regional position and global status as an emerging power. The kingdom was among the first to launch a comprehensive regional stability initiative. This approach\u00a0 started with the reconciliation with Iran, settling\u00a0 differences with regional powers, resolving \u00a0problems, opening up to regional powers, diversifying global partnerships, and not engaging in conflicting regional blocs nor submitting to the dictates of major powers. This has yielded positive results that support the development plan and \u00a0Vision 2030. In addition, Saudi Arabia has avoided the negative repercussions of the regional conflict and protected itself from polarization. Iran, which \u00a0views Saudi Arabia as a regional rival, was significantly affected by \u00a0the dominant \u201chardliner\u201d trend, however, \u00a0the dialogue that followed the reconciliation has led to converging views on regional arrangements, the region\u2019s future, and its system. The two sides can propagate a more coordinated vision to create a new regional reality based on cooperation and non-polarization, deeper collaboration, and conflict management and settlements through peaceful mechanisms. \u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
In summary, it can be stated that Iran has allowed this vision to emerge because its regional project \u2014 through which it hoped to strengthen its regional clout \u2014 faced serious setbacks. The Iranian establishment is currently facing unprecedented challenges and threats, prompting a shift toward realism and the use of Zarif\u2019s foreign policy expertise to navigate its way out of the current crisis. This shift has become necessary as the perspectives of the conservative and radical factions, which have led the establishment and the country toward a dangerous situation, have proven inadequate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is perhaps crucial to seize the current opportunity to engage with Iran, assist it in overcoming ideological constraints, and dismantle the hostility and interference it has exerted over the region. Saudi Arabia, more than any other nation, has the potential to help create a new reality that fosters a more secure and stable Middle East that includes Iran. The Saudi leadership has consistently emphasized that it does not oppose Iran\u2019s role as an active and participatory regional power, provided it refrains from being an interventionist force and an instigator of chaos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n\u00a0Opinions in this article reflect the writer\u2019s point of view, not necessarily the view of Rasanah<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In an article titled \u201cHow Iran Sees the Path to Peace\u201d published by Foreign Affairs on December 2, 2024, Iran\u2019s Vice President for Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif presented the Pezeshkian government\u2019s vision for regional security and stability. This vision includes Iran\u2019s views on cooperation, regional integration, the challenges ahead, the differences between the United […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":214,"featured_media":13160,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13159","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13159","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/214"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13159"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13159\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13161,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13159\/revisions\/13161"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13160"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13159"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13159"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13159"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}