{"id":14020,"date":"2025-11-26T10:29:23","date_gmt":"2025-11-26T07:29:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/?p=14020"},"modified":"2025-11-26T11:47:41","modified_gmt":"2025-11-26T08:47:41","slug":"iraq-elections-2025-external-influences-over-the-new-government","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/centre-for-researches-and-studies\/iraq-elections-2025-external-influences-over-the-new-government\/","title":{"rendered":"Iraq Elections 2025: External Influences Over the New Government"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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The 2025 Iraqi parliamentary elections \u2014 the country\u2019s sixth \u2014 hold extraordinary significance, extending beyond Iraq\u2019s borders into a highly volatile regional context marked by intensifying geopolitical conflicts. Iraq is deeply entwined in these dynamics, particularly due to the competing interests of external actors within its territory. Unlike prior elections, which often culminated in routine consensus mechanisms for appointing the prime minister, these polls represent a pivotal moment that may shape Iraq\u2019s stance on critical regional issues amid ongoing transformations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Notably, these elections highlighted the influence of militias linked to external actors in Lebanon, Yemen and Palestine as well as Iranian apprehensions over a potential strategic shift that could redefine Iraq\u2019s identity and orientation. Iraq is widely regarded as a cornerstone in sustaining the remaining elements of Iran\u2019s regional geopolitical project, therefore the stakes of this electoral process were sharply heightened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All internal and external actors perceived the 2025 elections as exceptional and decisive \u2014 a genuine test of control over Iraq amid critical regional developments. The elections presented a historic, perhaps unrepeatable, opportunity to forge a new political equation in Iraq and coincided with notable shifts in US policy under President Donald Trump, whose administration is intensifying efforts to diminish Iranian influence in Iraq and weaken the reach of its allied militias. This strategy follows US and Israeli objectives to neutralize Iran\u2019s regional footprint, first in Lebanon and Syria, and now within Iraq. The United States is employing multiple mechanisms to counter Iranian interference in government formation and to foster an Iraqi political identity aligned with a regional axis independent of Tehran, or at a minimum, one reflecting a genuine balance of power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The elections were thus widely viewed as a litmus test. Given their significance for internal power dynamics and broader Middle Eastern geopolitics \u2014 particularly with the anticipated parliamentary majority that will select the highest executive office \u2014 every shift is measured against its impact on the US-Iran regional confrontation. Key questions emerge in this context: What opportunities do the elections provide for redefining Iraq\u2019s identity and orientation? How will electoral outcomes impact Iraq\u2019s future political environment? What are the defining features of the new electoral map? What are the implications for Iraq\u2019s various alliances and the distribution of power? How will Iran\u2019s role in Iraq be affected? And finally, how will Iran adjust its strategic orientations in Iraq, particularly in light of unrelenting US pressure?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran\u2019s Preponderant Role in the Sixth Iraqi Elections<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Iraq, each parliamentary term unfolds within a distinct electoral environment that shapes alliances and influences the overall outcome. The sixth electoral cycle stands out as markedly different from its predecessors. The first elections in 2005 occurred amid the aftermath of the US invasion and the initial phase of Iranian intervention, aimed at molding Iraq\u2019s identity, deepening sectarian divisions and consolidating Shiite control in the country. The 2010 elections reflected an expanded the Iranian presence through military proxies, while the 2014 polls took place as Iran leveraged the US withdrawal and regional Arab Spring uprisings to further entrench its influence in Iraq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fourth parliamentary elections in 2018 occurred two years after Iran had consolidated its influence by integrating Shiism into Iraq\u2019s political system through the approval of the Popular Mobilization Forces Law.[1]<\/sup><\/a> The fifth elections in 2021 followed a period of popular unrest, notably the October 2019 protests against Iranian interference.[2]<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the time, the regional landscape was also undergoing upheaval following the 2020 US assassination of Soleimani which aimed to deliver a major blow to Iran\u2019s regional project, yet instability and Iranian influence persisted in Iraq. The current elections unfolded amid a regional context in which Iran and its militias have faced setbacks, and the United States has resumed a more active role in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. These circumstances are expected to significantly influence the balance of power among Shiite alliances and the formation of the new Iraqi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

External Developments<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Compared with previous electoral cycles, external factors exerted the greatest influence on the sixth parliamentary elections. This placed Iran \u2014the main architect of Iraq\u2019s prevailing political identity \u2014 in a historically unprecedented position amid intensified US pressure to alter Iranian influence, and created an opportunity for political alliances to play a more decisive role in shaping the next phase of Iraq\u2019s political landscape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Implications of Waning Iranian Influence<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the first time since 2005, Iraqi parliamentary elections took place amid a noticeable decline in Iranian influence. The Iranian establishment, which shaped the post-Saddam era, faces a historic predicament, having suffered significant blows to its centers of power*<\/a> and the unravelling of the \u201cAxis of Resistance,\u201d the cornerstone of its regional project. This has created a new regional phase, forcing Iran into a defensive posture, limiting its ability to preserve Shiite dominance in Iraq, testing Shiite alliances like never before and opening opportunities for cross-sectarian coalitions. At the same time, Shiite communities in Iraq\u2019s southern provinces aligned with Iran\u2019s position over Gaza as documented on social media, particularly in the wake of Israeli and US strikes on Iran. This sentiment may have influenced voter attitudes toward Shiite alliances, particularly those with military backgrounds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consequences of the Post-October 7 Phase<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iraq is among the countries whose militias took part in the recent Gaza conflict, under the Iranian strategy of \u201cunity of arenas,\u201d proclaiming to defend Palestinians. However, militia activity witnessed a reduction following President Trump\u2019s assumption of office in early 2025.  Moreover, Israel\u2019s unbridled aggression in Gaza may also have influenced the general mood of Iraqi voters and shaped their electoral behavior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Increasing Turkish Influence in Iraq<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The elections occurred amid T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s expanding role in Iraq, where Iran\u2019s influence has long challenged Ankara both within the country and regionally. The early November 2025 signing of the water cooperation agreement marked a breakthrough in the longstanding water-sharing dispute, granting T\u00fcrkiye authority to manage Iraq\u2019s water resources and implement projects financed through Iraqi oil in exchange for water flow. This raised public concerns over growing economic and water dependence on Ankara, potentially undermining Iraq\u2019s historic water rights and encroaching Turkish influence. Rising discontent on social media may threaten Turkish-backed Iraqi alliances like Siyada, while the Iraqi government seeks balance through a strong regional partner to limit Iranian pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US Pressures on Iraq<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The decrease in Iranian influence over the elections is matched by mounting US pressure to dismantle the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and reassert full state control over all unauthorized weapons. US pressure has taken shape through several clear steps and policy signals such as the following:<\/p>\n\n\n\n