{"id":14298,"date":"2026-04-15T12:16:23","date_gmt":"2026-04-15T09:16:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/?p=14298"},"modified":"2026-04-15T12:16:25","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T09:16:25","slug":"rasanahs-monthly-iran-case-file-february-march-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/news\/rasanahs-monthly-iran-case-file-february-march-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Rasanah\u2019s Monthly Iran Case File: February-March 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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The International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah) has released its Iran Case File<\/em> (ICF) for February and March 2026, offering both general readers and specialists a detailed account of developments during the period under review. The ICF seeks to assess Iran\u2019s internal and external conditions while evaluating the interplay between its various political, economic and strategic dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Structured in three main themes, the ICF first surveys key Iranian developments, then turns to Iran\u2019s regional interactions and finally examines its relations with international powers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the domestic front, Iran experienced wide-ranging developments across political, economic, military, social and ideological spheres during the two-month period. Politically, the most consequential event was the killing of Ali Khamenei, the country\u2019s longstanding supreme leader, in large-scale US-Israeli strikes on February 28. Despite this, the Iranian leadership demonstrated institutional resilience, rapidly reorganizing both its political and military hierarchies. This included the appointment of a new supreme leader and a series of military reshuffles aimed at maintaining operational continuity against Israeli and US targets. Economically, the strikes targeted three core pillars of Iran\u2019s economy, exposing losses estimated to exceed $170 billion. Militarily, while Iran sustained significant setbacks \u2014 notably in its air defense capabilities \u2014 it retained the capacity to conduct sustained operations. This was reflected in missile strikes targeting Israel, the US Navy and the Gulf states, as well as in its closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Socially, internal cohesion emerged as a critical factor, countering external efforts to provoke domestic unrest following strikes on command-and-control structures. Ideologically, the transition of leadership after the assassination of Ali Khamenei and the succession of his son unfolded within a sensitive political and ideological environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In terms of Iran\u2019s regional engagement, the period was marked by notable developments. At the Gulf level, member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council coordinated their responses through unified statements, diplomatic initiatives and international engagement following Iranian missile and drone attacks that signaled attempts to widen the conflict. In Syria, Iran\u2019s diminished presence has reduced the likelihood of the country becoming a direct battleground, affording Damascus limited space to recalibrate its position and distance itself from the confrontation. In Yemen, the Houthis\u2019 announcement in late March of their entry into the conflict represented a significant escalation, with potential implications for the Yemeni arena. Regarding Israel, its initial objective of precipitating regime change in Iran did not materialize as anticipated. The conflict instead evolved through phases marked by Iran\u2019s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, intensified strikes against Israeli targets and the involvement of allied non-state actors, particularly Hezbollah.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the international level, Iran\u2019s relations with major powers entered a new phase. Its confrontation with the United States escalated significantly in the aftermath of the war with Israel. What began as a campaign aimed at regime change transitioned, over the course of roughly 40 days, into a protracted war of attrition, imposing broader costs on global economic stability and security. Meanwhile, Russia and China pursued a policy described as \u201cactive pragmatism,\u201d seeking to shield Iran from systemic collapse while avoiding direct military confrontation, thereby positioning themselves as stabilizing intermediaries without fully entering the conflict.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah) has released its Iran Case File (ICF) for February and March 2026, offering both general readers and specialists a detailed account of developments during the period under review. The ICF seeks to assess Iran\u2019s internal and external conditions while evaluating the interplay between its various political, economic and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":14300,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2451,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14298","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-monthly-reports","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14298","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14298"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14298\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14301,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14298\/revisions\/14301"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14300"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14298"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14298"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14298"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}