{"id":2119,"date":"2016-11-15T14:45:27","date_gmt":"2016-11-15T11:45:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/arabiangcis.org\/english\/?p=2119"},"modified":"2016-11-15T19:12:04","modified_gmt":"2016-11-15T16:12:04","slug":"trumps-first-me-military-action-may-target-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/monitoring-and-translation\/reports\/trumps-first-me-military-action-may-target-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s first ME military action may target Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"

In an analysis published by “DEBKA File” news website that in more than one campaign speech, President-elect Donald Trump declared that his number priority was \u201cto dismantle the disastrous deal\u201d with Iran, which he said was \u201cthe worst deal ever\u201d He was referring to the 2015 accord negotiated with Iran by the 5P+1 (five Permanent Security Council members plus Germany), which the Obama administration presented as putting the lid on Iran\u2019s nuclear weapons program.<\/strong>
\n Trump vowed to use force if necessary to prevent Tehran from acquiring the bomb.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The analysis raise a question that does Tehran have more to fear from Donald Trump than from Barack Obama in the way of US military intervention? They can\u2019t be sure that he will not set out to show the world \u2013 and especially the Iranians – that under his presidency, they can no longer \u201cmess with America.\u201d
\nDEBKA file\u2019s Iranian sources report that the mullahs are concerned enough to contemplate the following scenario seriously.\u2028The incoming president, after he takes office in the White House on Jan. 20, will act to raise America\u2019s lame image in the Middle East by a surgical strike against an Iranian nuclear facility. One option projected is the blowing up of the Arak heavy water plant for plutonium production at the military complex city of Arak; another would be destroying an Iranian ballistic missile base.
\nTrump and the Republican-ruled Congress would certainly not tolerate Iranian breaches after America coughed up $150 billion in eased sanctions and released frozen assets.
\nThe Analysis also mentioned that Trump administration would be able to marshal seven arguments to justify military action:
\n1.<\/span> On Nov. 2, a week before the presidential election, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna reported Iran in violation of the nuclear deal by producing 130.1 tons of heavy water at the Arak plant, 100kg\u00a0more than allowed. In past cases, the Iranians quickly exported the excess amount. However, with a new US president on the way, they may try to use it as a one-ton test of his resolve.
\n2.<\/span> In another challenge, Iran is threatening to renege unless more economic benefits are forthcoming.
\n2.<\/span> The nuclear restrictions imposed under the deal end in about seven years, when Iran can start going back to its weapons program.
\n3.<\/span> \u00a0Tehran never actually signed the 2014 nuclear deal in the first place. It has remained on paper on three pages as \u201cThe Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Regarding the “Islamic Republic” of Iran\u2019s Nuclear Program\u201d announced in Lausanne on July 14, 2015, by US Secretary of State John Kerry and Iran\u2019s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.
\nThree days later, Iran\u2019s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei commented: \u201cOur policy will not change the arrogant US government.\u201d
\n4.<\/span> The document was eventually endorsed by the UN Security Council. That obliged the IAEA to follow up its presumed commitments by inspections on the ground to confirm Iran\u2019s compliance. However, because much of its content was kept under wraps, American and Iranian obligations have been hard to pin down.
\n5.<\/span> The deal\u2019s omissions are a lot clearer. Tehran is not committed to release information on its nuclear program before the date of the deal – including how far it had progressed towards a weapon.
\n6.<\/span> The nuclear deal did not cover Iran\u2019s long-range ballistic missile program, which continues to develop apace.
\nTen months ago, the Obama administration tried to correct this omission by imposing fresh sanctions on Iran unless the program was curtailed. There is no information available up until now as to whether this deterrent worked.
\n7.<\/span> US military action against Iran\u2019s nuclear or missile programs may also serve the Trump administration to drive a wedge in the partnership between Moscow and Tehran and draw a new line in the sands of the Middle East. The Russians would certainly not step in by force in Iran\u2019s defense, except for possibly sharing some intelligence. Moscow would be shown as failing to back its ally and therefore secure the gains Vladimir Putin managed to\u00a0amass in the Middle East\u00a0when Obama was president.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In an analysis published by “DEBKA File” news website that in more than one campaign speech, President-elect Donald Trump declared that his number priority was \u201cto dismantle the disastrous deal\u201d with Iran, which he said was \u201cthe worst deal ever\u201d He was referring to the 2015 accord negotiated with Iran by the 5P+1 (five Permanent […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":2120,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[1157,524,1156,464,669,176,12,1160,386,1155,722,391,708,1161,1158,1031,237,1162,1159,39],"class_list":["post-2119","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-reports","tag-5p1","tag-bomb","tag-debka","tag-germany","tag-heavy-water","tag-iaea","tag-iran","tag-john-kerry","tag-khamenei","tag-me","tag-middle-east","tag-moscow","tag-nuclear-deal","tag-russians","tag-security-council","tag-trump","tag-us","tag-vladimir-putin","tag-weapons-program","tag-zarif"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2119","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2119"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2119\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2121,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2119\/revisions\/2121"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2120"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2119"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2119"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2119"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}