{"id":5494,"date":"2018-09-09T11:53:21","date_gmt":"2018-09-09T08:53:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/?p=5494"},"modified":"2018-09-09T11:53:21","modified_gmt":"2018-09-09T08:53:21","slug":"did-rouhani-sacrifice-his-public-support-for-khameneis-trust","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/position-estimate\/did-rouhani-sacrifice-his-public-support-for-khameneis-trust\/","title":{"rendered":"Did Rouhani Sacrifice his Public Support for Khamenei\u2019s Trust?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Once the Spokesman of the Iranian Parliament announced not to refer Rouhani\u2019s issue to the judiciary, the most heated disputed ever between the executive and legislative powers in Iran was closed. The scapegoats in this simmering dispute were the minister of finance and economic affairs and the minister of labor, who were both voted out by the parliament.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong> Reasons for Parliament&#8217;s desire to hold Government accountable<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\nThe endless protests and the ongoing bubbling discontent because of deteriorating economic conditions, the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal, and the re-imposition of economic sanctions, as well as, an oil embargo expected in November made Iran\u2019s parliament \u2014whose members\u2019 true political affiliations are not clear until voting on major domestic issues \u2014 impeach the government.<br \/>\nIran\u2019s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei did not stop the impeachment; he probably paved the path to it. This is a very smart move from Khamenei; who is trying to pacify the public as Iran\u2019s economic woes increase and another economic storm is fast approaching; while distancing the Revolutionary Guard and its affiliated organs from the crisis and its responsibility, as well as, presenting the political uproar as a sign of the \u201cstrength of Iran&#8217;s democracy.\u201d He seeks to test Rouhani\u2019s loyalty to the regime as the drums of \u201ceconomic war\u201d beat louder. Khamenei needs to know whether Rouhani is the right man to address Iran\u2019s economic crisis, or changes need to be made to the regime, as well as, ensuring that the ruling elite and the domestic front are strong enough to address the crisis.<br \/>\nThe Revolutionary Guards were monitoring Rouhani\u2019s answers to the questions in parliament and implicitly revised their own policy after pushing him to face this challenging test. Although Rouhani\u2019s pragmatic supporters are the largest faction in the parliament, they did not rally behind him. They organized a new faction to impeach him because of his failure to address the economic crisis or there is a probability that they took revenge since they did not receive Cabinet positions during his two terms in the presidency.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong> Rouhani to confront or negotiate?<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\nAs the parliament announced a plan to impeach the Rouhani government, some thought Rouhani would seize the opportunity to blame the Revolutionary Guards and the Supreme Leader\u2019s office \u2014along with the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal and the re-imposition of sanctions\u2014 for the economic crisis. Considering the political considerations, Rouhani realized that he should set aside his remarks -to gain popularity among Iranians- rather than risk his political career and jeopardize the whole country\u2019s political stability.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong> Options left<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\nTwo main options are on the table for Rouhani: First, to accuse the Revolutionary Guards and the Supreme Leader for the crisis which would probably incite a dispute, and the parliament would have to settle it. The reformists, who do not possess the most seats in the parliament, are not satisfied with Rouhani\u2019s governance, so they would most likely organize a faction against Rouhani. This faction could expand with the support of the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guards. Consequently, Rouhani could face a no-confidence motion by a third of the parliament\u2019s members and a two-thirds vote could impeach him. Second, to keep silent about the Revolutionary Guards\u2019 economic violations and turn a blind eye to his previous remarks which would help him, especially as he has appeared in parliament. In addition, he could blame the U.S. administration\u2019s plots against Iran for the deteriorating economic situation.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong> Rouhani made his decision<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\nWhen Rouhani spoke out in the parliament, he said, \u201cI would like to be committed to the points and recommendations the Great Supreme Leader ordered to be carried out in this session.\u201d He wanted to make clear to the parliament that what he said had been approved by the Supreme Leader and he had agreed with him on all the areas he had covered. Then, Rouhani started receiving the five questions set by the lawmakers.<br \/>\nRouhani had, on many times, accused the Revolutionary Guards of destroying Iran\u2019s economy. He said on June 2017, implicitly pointing to the Revolutionary Guards, \u201cWe handed a portion of the state\u2019s economy to a state with a rifle. This state, which carries a rifle, controls all media outlets, and nobody can compete with it.\u201d He responded to goods smuggling saying, \u201cthere is a corrupt body able to smuggle goods, they do not want the country to flourish.\u201d Media outlets, loyal to Rouhani, revealed that the Revolutionary Guards\u2019 affiliated firms had withdrawn money from Iran\u2019s banks and converted it to U.S. dollars.<br \/>\nHe responded to the parliamentary questions, \u201cI should make it clear to the Iranian people that we will overcome this crisis with the power of God, the guidance of the Supreme Leader, and cooperation with the three branches of the government and Armed Forces.\u201d He added, \u201caccording to smuggling goods and hard currency, the Armed Forces, particularly, the Revolutionary Guard Corps, play a key role that should be appreciated. The Supreme National Security Council assigned the Revolutionary Guards Corps to counter smuggling in the Gulf, and the Sea of Oman, as well as, on the eastern and western lander borders.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong> It is the people\u2019s fault<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\nRouhani claimed that the economic crisis Iran faces now is generated by foreign pressures, denying any misgovernance from his government. He did not point to the impact of the \u2018destructive\u2019 role of the Revolutionary Guards on the country\u2019s economy. He did not stop here; he blamed the protests that broke out across Iran in December 2017 for triggering President Trump to withdraw from the nuclear deal, worsening the economic crisis and bringing down the regime.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong> Votes of the parliament<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\nThe parliament voted that Rouhani\u2019s answers were not satisfactory, except for one answer about the recession. Rouhani confirmed that Iran faces only a very slight recession as in economic language it is negative growth which is consistent over the course of nine months, which has not occurred during his presidency. The members of parliament voted to refer the matter to the judiciary. The lawmakers confirmed the decision would be made on September 2. That was after the Supreme Leader met with Rouhani at the annual meeting; known as: \u201cWeek of Statehood.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong> Khamenei rewards Rouhani<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\nDuring the period of the nuclear deal, Khamenei used to criticize the Rouhani government, listing its weaknesses in the economic field. But now, while the Rouhani government is heavily stumbling across its worst economic performance, Khamenei praised it saying, \u201cthe government is capable to manage the national economy [\u2026] The parliament members question the president, who won with 23 million votes, and he answers with high self-confidence and this is what religious democracy means.\u201d Rouhani replied, \u201cthe people rallying behind the Supreme leader will thwart the enemy\u2019s plots.\u201d \u201cSince the subject of the lawmakers\u2019 questions to the president was not a violation of the law, the presiding board decided not to refer the issue to the judiciary,\u201d MP Behrouz Nemati said.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong> Did Rouhani lose the Iranian people?<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\nRouhani could not utter a word against the negative role of the Revolutionary Guard in the country\u2019s economy. Both Khamenei and Rouhani agreed not to take up any direct talks with the United States, and not to negotiate on the country\u2019s ballistic missile program or its military presence abroad. It seems Rouhani has just lost the trust of his grassroots supporters, who believed that he was the best of the rest.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Once the Spokesman of the Iranian Parliament announced not to refer Rouhani\u2019s issue to the judiciary, the most heated disputed ever between the executive and legislative powers in Iran was closed. The scapegoats in this simmering dispute were the minister of finance and economic affairs and the minister of labor, who were both voted out [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":5495,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1402],"tags":[386,2279,2771,38,2770,2772,2773],"class_list":["post-5494","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-position-estimate","tag-khamenei","tag-position-paper","tag-public","tag-rouhani","tag-sacrifice","tag-support","tag-trust"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5494","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5494"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5494\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5496,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5494\/revisions\/5496"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5495"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5494"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5494"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5494"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}