{"id":7248,"date":"2019-12-19T16:24:34","date_gmt":"2019-12-19T13:24:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/?p=7248"},"modified":"2019-12-19T18:16:58","modified_gmt":"2019-12-19T15:16:58","slug":"the-islamic-republic-threatens-europe-with-reducing-its-nuclear-commitments-further-the-budget-bills-revenue-sources-are-unreal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/monitoring-and-translation\/iran-in-a-week\/the-islamic-republic-threatens-europe-with-reducing-its-nuclear-commitments-further-the-budget-bills-revenue-sources-are-unreal\/","title":{"rendered":"The Islamic Republic Threatens Europe with Reducing its Nuclear Commitments Further; The Budget Bill\u2019s Revenue Sources are \u2018Unreal\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking towards the\nEast, but which East? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The editorial of Mostaghel focuses on Rouhani\u2019s recent claim\nthat Iran has always pursued a policy of looking towards the East, emphasizing\nthat it is not clear what he means by \u2018East\u2019. It also goes over the\nsignificance of Rouhani\u2019s recent trip to Malaysia and Japan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hassan Rouhani, at the outset of his trip to Malaysia and\nJapan, said Iran\u2019s policy of looking towards the East and forging close\nrelations with important Asian countries have always been the goals of the\nIslamic Republic. As for the objectives of this trip, he said at the Kuala\nLumpur Summit, important countries from the Islamic world will participate.\nIran, Turkey, Qatar, Malaysia, and Indonesia are among the countries whose\nleaders are to participate in this summit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

One should first ask President Rouhani what this policy of looking\ntowards the East means. If by East, he means geographical east, it is not\ncommon in political terminology to classify countries geographically. If by\nlooking towards the East, he means \u2018political east and eastern bloc\u2019, we should\nsay that such a classification is no longer in use after the collapse of the\nSoviet Union and after the essential economic change in China and its turn\ntowards a market economy. So there is no longer any eastern bloc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, Malaysia and Japan are geographically\nlocated toward the east of Iran, but Japan, for example, completely belongs to\nthe western bloc, and after World War II, it is the closest ally of the United\nStates in the far east. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Malaysia might not be considered as a strategic partner of\nAmerica and the West, but given its free economy and social fabric, it\ndefinitely doesn\u2019t belong to \u2018eastern bloc\u2019 at all. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rouhani also pointed to the presence of important Islamic\ncountries at the Kuala Lumpur Summit, while Saudi Arabia and Egypt two of the\nmost important and influential Islamic countries in the world are not present\nat this summit. One of the most critical problems facing the Islamic Republic\u2019s\nregional policy is its cold relationship with Saudi Arabia and Egypt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anyway, the countries present at the Kuala Lumpur Summit all\nhave close economic, political, military relations with the United States. They\nhave shown so far that they are not ready to endanger their good relations with\nthe United States for any other country. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mostaghel<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A sociological look\nat the recent protests<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The editorial of Arman Melli mulls over the November\nprotests in Iran, emphasizing that they not only highlighted the economic\nproblems the people have to deal with but also reflected the widening gap\nbetween the Iranian people and the establishment. So far, at least 304 people\nhave been killed in these protests. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The recent protests in November, triggered by tripling the\nprice of gasoline, added fuel to social concerns over serious economic issues.\nRaising the price of gasoline without any prior warning was unwise. If it had\nbeen announced before, it would have been digested better by the people and we\nwouldn\u2019t have seen such bitter incidents. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But announcing the price hike overnight shows that Iran\u2019s\nofficials were sure that there wouldn\u2019t be any serious reactions. For 2 or 3\nweeks, Iran\u2019s officials and lawmakers were saying that the price of gasoline\nwould be increased gradually, but suddenly the price of gasoline tripled. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And now, as time passes, we are witnessing that the people\nare more and more ignored and humiliated. The November protests indicated a\nserious rift between the people and Iran\u2019s officials, who seem not to\nunderstand the people\u2019s problems. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rate of unemployment is high, and the youth are facing\ndifferent issues. The authorities keep encouraging the youth to get married and\nhave children, but nobody asks how they can do so under such poor conditions.\nIran\u2019s officials, on the other hand, do not offer any clear explanations to the\npeople regarding their social problems; they talk as if everything is okay and\nthere is no problem. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even after the recent protests, Iran\u2019s officials cannot\nmanage the situation properly. There are still no exact statistics about those\nwho were killed, injured, or detained. The recent events indicate public\ndistrust towards Iran\u2019s officials, while some officials do not have a clear\ngrasp of society.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arman Melli<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overt and covert goals\nof Rouhani\u2019s trip to Japan<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The editorial of Setareh Sobh reflects on Rouhani\u2019s trip to\nJapan, as well as the possibility of Iran-US negotiations via this country. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On December 18, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani travels to\nJapan to meet with the country\u2019s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. This is, of course,\ndifferent from Abe\u2019s trip to Tehran. As the result of social turmoil and\neconomic problems, Iran is the one that called for this trip and meeting. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many consider that the main goal of these two trips is for\nJapan to mediate between the Islamic Republic and the United States. However,\nthe recent prisoner swap deal between Iran and the United States can facilitate\nnegotiations between the two countries. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American side, and particularly Donald Trump, wants a\nbig concession from Iran on the verge of the US presidential elections in 2020.\nThe Iranian side, meanwhile, seeks to increase public participation in the\nupcoming parliamentary elections. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Due to the US sanctions which have negatively impacted the\nsocio-economic conditions of the Iranian people \u2013 particularly after the recent\nprotests in Iran in November \u2013 economic pressures make Iran more willing to\nhold negotiations with America. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under the current circumstances, neither side seems to be\nwilling to step back from their positions. Each side must give into certain\ndemands and expectations of the other side. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

America expects changes in Iran\u2019s domestic policies, as well\nas in its international and regional relationships. Both Iraq and Lebanon,\nIran\u2019s close allies, are facing domestic crises, which makes Iran\u2019s role in the\nregion more significant. Meanwhile, Iran wants US economic sanctions to be\nremoved. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both demands seem currently impossible. If these two\ncountries are serious about holding negotiations, we should see what\nconcessions they are willing to grant to each other. Some of these demands\nmight be brought up in Rouhani\u2019s trip to Japan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Japan has close ties with Iran and is one of the best buyers\nof Iran\u2019s oil. This country is trusted by both Iran and America, so Abe can do\na great deal in this regard. But eventually, everything depends on either\nside\u2019s decision. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Setareh Sobh<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What do people want? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The editorial of Etemad explains the rift that exists\nbetween the Iranian people and the country\u2019s officials, emphasizing that\nIranian officials act as if they are out of touch with the realities of Iranian\nsociety and public demands. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

They say that during the French Revolution, Queen of France\nMari Antoinette asked, what do people want? They answered: they are hungry and\nwant bread. The Queen then said: \u201cLet them eat cake!\u201d This story points to the\ndeep rift that existed between the monarch and the French people in the\neighteenth century which eventually led to the French revolution.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is also the story of some of the country\u2019s officials\nwho are not in touch with Iranian society and its realities. The young minister\nof information and communication technology, Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi,\nrecently announced: \u201cWe have prepared the grounds for moving postal packages\nwith drones so that there is no place in Iran that is inaccessible.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It seems that he is so out of touch with ground realities\nthat he is unaware that many people in Iran do not have access to basic modern\nrequirements such as the internet.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is notable that this lack of communication with people is\nexactly what causes psychological insecurity in society. Society expects\nofficials to understand the situation and take steps to improve it, but there\nare officials who do not take responsibility for their actions, as if by not\npaying attention to public demands, they are mocking society and it\u2019s problems.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just recently, Iran\u2019s government spokesperson, Ali Rabiee,\nadmitted to making a mistake by not presenting their case to the people in\nregard to raising the price of gasoline. But he should be asked, how can you\nearn the trust of the people when they see that the pressure of sanctions is\nonly on their shoulders? How can people trust the government they have voted\nfor when its minister of information and communication technology says that he\ndoesn\u2019t like filtering but can\u2019t do anything about it? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a result of this rift, people look at the country\u2019s\nofficials and their actions with doubt more than ever. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ebtekar<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Parliament\u2019s Research\nCenter calls the budget bill\u2019s revenue sources \u2018unreal\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Parliament\u2019s Research Center\npublished a report and considered the major part of the 2020-2021 budget bill\u2019s\nrevenue sources as \u2018unreal\u2019, stressing that the government must amend the\nprocess of drafting the budget bill. The Head of the Supreme Audit Court too\nsays that unlike what the government says, the next year\u2019s budget relies on oil\nfor more than 20% of its revenues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Research Center, in its report, says that there have\nbeen no serious amendments in the revenue sources and expenditure plans for\nnext year\u2019s budget, emphasizing that the 2020-2021 budget bill is similar to\nthis year\u2019s budget and has considerable overestimates in its revenue\nsources.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Iran\u2019s First Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri has\nadmitted to a severe drop in oil exports, emphasizing that the US sanctions\nhave created structural problems in Iran\u2019s economy and management. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the statistics by Kepler tanker tracker\ncompany, Iran\u2019s entire oil exports in November reached 213,000 bpd, two-third\nof which was sent to China and the rest to Syria. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is not clear if Iran receives any payments for these\nshipments, but before the US sanctions, Tehran exported 2.5 million bpd and in\n2018, Iran\u2019s oil export revenues reached over $60 billion. Iran\u2019s current oil\nexports are estimated at 100,000 to 300,000 bpd. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Jahagiri admits to a severe drop in oil exports, the\ngovernment has predicted exporting 1 million bpd in the next year\u2019s budget. If\nthis fails to come true, the budget deficit must be compensated through foreign\ncurrency reserves and the National Development Fund. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2020-2021 budget bill is also said to indicate that the\npublic sector\u2019s debts to Iran\u2019s Central Bank have had a 999% growth reaching\n63,000 billion tomans. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rouhani\u2019s government will not be able to meet public\ndemands, nor will it be able to make promises about the future. What is more,\npeople will not pay any attention to any promises.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Radio Zamaneh<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Radio Farda<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shamkhani: If Europe\ndoesn\u2019t live up to its obligations, we will take the next step<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The British foreign minister, after meeting with his French\nand German counterparts, expressed concerns over Iran reducing its commitments\nin the nuclear deal. Iran\u2019s secretary to the Supreme National Security Council,\nAli Shamkhani, says if Europe doesn\u2019t fulfill its obligations within the\nnuclear deal (JCPOA), Iran will inevitably take further steps in reducing its\ncommitments in the JCPOA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After the US pulled out of the JCPOA and imposed heavy\neconomic sanctions on Iran, the Islamic Republic\u2019s officials announced that if\nEurope does not fulfill its banking and oil obligations to Iran, the Islamic\nRepublic would pull out of the JCPOA step by step and would increase uranium\nenrichment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Islamic Republic has taken four steps in reducing its\nobligations in the JCPOA so far, and European leaders haven\u2019t been able to find\na way for de-escalating the tensions between Tehran and Washington. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Shamkhani has threatened that Iran will further reduce\nits obligations within the JCPOA, British Foreign MinisterDominic Raab has\ntweeted about his talks with French Foreign Minister Le Drian and German\nForeign Minister Heiko Maas regarding Iran, saying that \u201cBritain, France, and\nGermany remain committed to the nuclear deal, but Iran has taken steps that\njeopardize its future. These must be addressed urgently.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Radio Zamaneh<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A member of the\nChamber of Commerce: the US gives a permit to several companies to export\nmedicines to Iran<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Alireza Kolahi, a member of Tehran\u2019s Chamber of Commerce,\nsaid several American companies have been able to obtain permits from the US\nTreasury Department to export medicines to Iran. According to ILNA, these\ncompanies have submitted a list of several banks for financial transactions,\nand the US Treasury has accepted two of these Iranian banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kolahi didn\u2019t mention the names of these two banks but emphasized\nthat if money laundering bills are not ratified by the Expediency Discernment\nCouncil, these banks too will face difficulties and this path too will be\nclosed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to this member of Iran\u2019s Chamber of Commerce, not\nratifying these bills is like breaching one of the main international laws and\ndeliberately pulling out of the global banking system. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earlier Sigal Mandelker, Under Secretary of the Treasury for\nTerrorism and Financial Intelligence, had welcomed exporting medicines and\nhumanitarian aid to Iran, saying that the United States strongly supports this\nprocess. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Swiss and American officials recently told Reuters news\nagency that a humanitarian mechanism for exporting foods and medicines to Iran\nwill be launched in the upcoming months. This mechanism can help to export\nSwiss goods to Iran without breaching the US sanctions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In recent months there have been numerous reports regarding\nmedicines in Iran. Human Rights Watch in its report had written about the\nnegative impact of US sanctions on the availability of medicines in Iran. In\naddition, the reluctance of countries to engage in financial transactions with\nIran has hindered the import of medicines. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Foundation for Defense of Democracies had\nreleased a report indicating an increase in the export of medicines from Europe\nto Iran in 2019, noting that if there are any problems for patients, it is\nbecause of state corruption in Iran.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Radio Farda<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A 30% drop in visits\nto health treatment centers due to high prices<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

According to Koroush Farzin, deputy to Iran\u2019s Health\nInsurance Organization, the number of visitors to health treatment centers has\nhad a 30% drop compared to last year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

He added the cost of treatment is very considerable for many\npeople, and they do not go to health centers for ordinary diseases, not because\nthere is no insurance coverage, but because everything has become more\nexpensive. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Farzin said that due to a rise in prices, people do not go\nto see the doctor and try to treat illnesses such as catching a cold by home\nremedies and resting unless the illness becomes more serious. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

During past two years, Iran\u2019s national currency has severely\nlost its value, and there has been a rise in medication prices and medical\nservices. Recently Ali Nobakht, head of Parliament\u2019s Health and Treatment, said\nthat before the US sanctions, the price of a bottle of aspirin was 42,000\ntomans, but immediately after the sanctions, it became 145,000 tomans.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recently, Fars news agency reported that long lines in front\nof government hospitals reflect the people\u2019s inability to pay treatment costs.\nAccording to this report, a considerable number of people cannot afford to go\nto health centers, which is why they have turned to self-treatment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Radio Frada<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Looking towards the East, but which East? The editorial of Mostaghel focuses on Rouhani\u2019s recent claim that Iran has always pursued a policy of looking towards the East, emphasizing that it is not clear what he means by \u2018East\u2019. It also goes over the significance of Rouhani\u2019s recent trip to Malaysia and Japan. Hassan Rouhani, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":6281,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[461,2151,12,1637,186,3640,97,2466,2731,38,1871,3135],"class_list":["post-7248","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran-in-a-week","tag-europe","tag-hassan-rouhani","tag-iran","tag-iran-in-a-week","tag-japan","tag-kuala-lumpur","tag-malaysia","tag-rasanah","tag-rasanah-issues","tag-rouhani","tag-rouhanis-government","tag-the-islamic-republic"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7248","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7248"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7248\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7265,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7248\/revisions\/7265"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6281"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7248"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7248"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7248"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}