If the Iranian uprisings that took\nplace during December 2017-January 2018, June-July 2018, and November 2019 are\nanalyzed based on economic trends and\npublic grievances, we can be sure that there will be uprisings in the future\nvery soon. The Iranian government\u2019s economic and foreign policies\nwill push the country further into a swamp of crises, so we should expect\nbigger spontaneous public outbursts in\nthe future. During Khamenei\u2019s reign, many of the government\u2019s decisions and\npolicies have been in favor of powerful\nand wealthy groups (“insiders”). Now the \u201coutsiders\u201d feel that they\nhave nothing to lose and are willing to risk their lives in order to express\ntheir grievances and discontent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The level of\ninefficiency and corruption that exists today in Iran is exacerbating wealth\ninequalities and making people worse off<\/a>. Therefore, in the near\nfuture, protests such as those that took place in November 2019 will be\nrepeated; however, it is expected that a\nlarger percentage of the Iranian population will participate in these protests. All socio-economic conditions point to the\npossibility of more protests, with Iranians no longer fearing the Basij and the\nIRGC. With the United States expected to\nincrease its pressure on Tehran, \neconomic problems are expected to worsen in the near future, which will\nadd more fuel to the grievances that already exist among the Iranian\npopulation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Based on economic and social conditions as well as the November 2019 uprisings, we\nare able to extrapolate and predict the nature of the future uprisings in order\nto answer four pertinent questions: What would be the future agenda of the\nprotesters? What kind of tactics would\nthe protesters employ? Who would the\nprotesters consider as their friends and\nenemies? What will be their slogans?<\/p>\n\n\n\n The present Iranian protesters have gone way beyond the reformist agenda that was popular in the 1990s and 2000s. The reformist agenda was to strengthen civil society, promote\u00a0 the rule\u00a0 of law and liberalize the Iranian political system. The \u201creformist\u201d camp failed to deliver on any part of its agenda. Iranians who voted for Khatami believed that the ballot box\u00a0 was the best way for change. Khamenei and the IRGC proved them wrong. The new generation is not convinced that the ballot box can initiate reform in Iran\u2019s political system. Now the majority of Iranians have lost<\/a> faith in the \u201creformist\u201d camp; protesters today are aware that any political, economic, social and cultural reforms are impossible as long\u00a0 as the Shi`i Islamists are in power in Tehran. <\/p>\n\n\n\n As the slogans show, Iranian protesters consider the West and the Pahlavi family as their allies. The protestors consider the government and its different factions, whether the \u201chardliners\u201d or the \u201creformists\u201d, as public enemies. Forty years of anti-Western propaganda and brainwashing via the educational system to present the West as evil have not been successful; the protesters during the November 2019 uprisings did not believe in this narrative spun by the Iranian government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Peaceful demonstrations, sit-ins, and strikes have never\u00a0 achieved anything in Iran. These are forbidden unless a license is approved by the Iranian government, something that never happens for the \u201coutsiders.\u201d This is why the \u201creformists\u201d became frustrated and eventually left the political scene except for a few professional politicians who have been co-opted by the Iranian establishment. These politicians\u00a0 can\u00a0 no longer sell reformism as a way out of Iran\u2019s multiple and complicated crises. <\/p>\n\n\n\n People who lost hope in Iran\u2019s\npolitical and religious system used three tactics to show their discontent\nduring the November 2019 uprisings:\n 1) They blocked roads and\nruined road signs, 2) Burned religious\ninstitutions such as Shi`i seminaries and the offices of Friday prayer leaders,\nand 3) Shut down the financial system. All these tactics were directed\ntoward fulfilling one key objective: shutting down the country and bringing the economy to a standstill. The protesters\nbelieved that this was the only way to\noust the Islamist government. The employment of these tactics highlights the fact that the protesters do not view Iran\u2019s existing financial and religious\ninstitutions as operating in their interests. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Iranian protests \nthat are not organized and sponsored by the government (mainly the\nIslamic Propaganda Organization) are devoid of religious slogans and rhetoric.\nIranians who are against the government\u2019s policies and decisions do not resort\nto Islamic ideology to express their grievances and needs. There were three basic slogans during the \nIranian protests of December 2017-January 2018, June-July 2018 and\nNovember 2019: the revival of the national government (\u201cReza Shah, rest\nin peace\u201d), the rejection of mixing religion and politics (\u201cthe mullahs must\nget lost\u201d), and the end of hostility to the West (“our enemy is\nhere”). The ideas behind these three slogans are very important for national coordination and unity in the\npost-Islamic government era. We can expect to hear the same slogans in\nfuture protests. <\/p>\n\n\n\n After the November 2019 uprisings were\nsuppressed, the gulf between the state and society deepened and widened.\nTherefore, if the Iranian government increases \nthe economic burden on the\nIranian population, this is likely to\ntrigger more unrest in the future. Considering the depletion of Iran\u2019s reserve\nfunds, and US sanctions on Iran\u2019s oil and financial sectors , as well as the mammoth financial outlay to fund Iran\u2019s interference in the affairs of\nregional countries, the Iranian government was forced to increase the financial\nburden on the Iranian people by tripling the price of gasoline. This was the\ntrigger that unleashed the recent protests. \nFormer Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC Mohammad Ali Ja`fari blamed<\/a>\nthe Rouhani administration for the uprisings. Another uprising could easily happen again in the near future.\nThe dominant slogans and tactics of the\nprotesters will be the same as the November 2019 uprisings. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" If the Iranian uprisings that took place during December 2017-January 2018, June-July 2018, and November 2019 are analyzed based on economic trends and public grievances, we can be sure that there will be uprisings in the future very soon. The Iranian government\u2019s economic and foreign policies will push the country further into a swamp of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":7293,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[545,3758,3759,3760],"class_list":["post-7292","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-reports","tag-enemies","tag-future-uprisings","tag-tactics","tag-uprisings-in-iran"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7292","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7292"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7292\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9306,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7292\/revisions\/9306"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7293"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7292"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7292"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7292"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}I- Agenda<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
II- Friends and Enemies<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
III- Tactics<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
IV- Slogans<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Conclusion<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n