The US strike came in direct response to the escalation by Iranian proxies in Iraq (PMF militias), including the Hezbollah Brigades, against US forces. On December 27, 2019, armed Shiite militias shelled the K-1 US-Iraqi military base with nearly 30 rockets. Located north of Kirkuk, this base hosts US soldiers at the official invitation of the Iraqi government as part of the International Coalition to\u00a0 fight ISIS. A US civilian contractor was killed in the attack and four US servicemen as well as two Iraqi security personnel were injured. The death of the American contractor was the motive behind the sudden US response. It was a strategic blunder by Iran in the context of timing, given the fact that Trump is very close to the US presidential elections. With US elections quickly approaching this year, the Iranian\u00a0 bet was on striking US bases with the aim of putting President Trump in an awkward situation, as his administration would be reluctant in undertaking any hasty escalatory measure against Tehran which could jeopardize Trump\u2019s reelection chances. In the event of harsh reprisals by the United States, Iran planned to use this as a means to quell the anti-Iran protests in Iraq. This was a miscalculation by Iran. The US civilian contractor killed by a pro-Iranian militia\u00a0\u00a0 shifted US public opinion, with\u00a0 approval for retaliatory action against Iran. This was used by the Trump administration to justify Washington\u2019s escalation against Iran, especially since Trump does not have much\u00a0 time to procrastinate as the Democrats have passed a bill triggering\u00a0 an impeachment inquiry. Therefore, the US response was sudden and strong by assassinating the mastermind of the Iranian regional project. The table below highlights the timeline and incidents leading to the attack as well as some responses in the aftermath:<\/p>\n II- The Significance of the Timing of Qassem Soleimani\u2019s Assassination\u00a0 by the US\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>\n There are many reasons why the United States would want to\u00a0 assassinate\u00a0 Qassem Soleimani.\u00a0 He\u00a0 was the main architect\u00a0 of the Iranian expansionist project in the region, masterminded\u00a0 terrorist operations,\u00a0 symbolized Iranian transboundary expansionism, sponsored\u00a0 terrorist armed militias in\u00a0 Arab countries and fomented\u00a0 regional tensions in order to create conducive conditions for Iran\u2019s domination of the region. But the timing of his assassination is extremely significant.\u00a0 The US administration announced\u00a0 its maximum pressure strategy one and a half years ago, aiming to push the Iranian government to change its behavior.\u00a0 Previously, the United States did not\u00a0 respond to many of Iran\u2019s\u00a0\u00a0 provocative\u00a0 acts which posed a threat to\u00a0 regional countries, maritime navigation security, and oil export routes. It also did not respond when Iran downed a US drone. So\u00a0 why is there a sudden shift in the US position, and why was\u00a0 Soleimani killed at the time when Trump is preparing for the US presidential elections? There are several reasons behind the US killing of Soleimani.<\/p>\n It seems that the CIA had obtained information which indicated that Soleimani was hatching a dangerous plot to attack US diplomats and troops in Iraq,\u00a0 with the aim of putting Trump in an awkward situation as US elections approach. The Iranians hoped that this would damage his reputation in the eyes of the US public and his reelection chances, with his approval ratings dropping leading up to the 2020 presidential elections.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 The remarks made by President Trump on January 3, 2020, after the assassination of Soleimani echoed the information provided to the White House by the CIA. He said, \u201cthe US has killed Soleimani in order to end the war, not to start it.\u201d This is in addition to the remarks by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. He said, \u201cBy killing Soleimani, we have aborted an imminent Iranian attack,\u201d adding that Soleimani was plotting a major attack that\u00a0 threatened the lives of hundreds of Americans. The same justification was provided by Brian Hook, the US special envoy for Iran, who said that US intelligence tracked phone calls suggesting that Soleimani was plotting imminent attacks on US soldiers, interests and diplomats and planning to kill more Americans.<\/p>\n Also, perhaps the US administration realized that Soleimani was planning to kick President Trump out of the White House by creating strong US public opinion against Trump which would impact his chances for reelection.\u00a0 For example, if Iran, killed\u00a0 the US ambassador along with US diplomats in Iraq reminiscent of the killing of the US ambassador to Libya in 2012, US public opinion would turn against Trump and damage his reelection chances.<\/p>\n Trump would not allow this to happen, particularly as he heads into the US presidential race. Therefore, in order to avert this Iranian plan, which if successful, would cause a complete shift in US policy towards Iran\u00a0 by bringing in a new president who could reverse the sanctions and reshape US policy towards Iran, Trump, from among several options laid out before him by his inner circle of advisers,\u00a0 opted to kill Qassem Soleimani.<\/p>\n 2- A Propaganda Strategy Aimed to Boost President Trump\u2019s \u00a0Electoral Gains<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n Perhaps Soleimani\u2019s assassination is related to Trump\u2019s desire to strengthen his reelection\u00a0 chances by taking advantage of\u00a0 Iran\u2019s\u00a0 miscalculation especially since\u00a0 Trump\u2019s popularity has declined due to the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives vote just days before the end of 2019 to impeach him. The Iranian miscalculation gave Trump a historic opportunity at this phase through which he can achieve several goals, on top of which is exploiting US public opinion in the aftermath of\u00a0 the killing of a US civilian contractor in Iraq to justify the assassination of Soleimani. This\u00a0 will be used to support Trump\u2019s latest electoral pledge to protect the lives of American citizens wherever they are, which will bolster his approval ratings for the upcoming US presidential elections. This is in addition to\u00a0 Trump\u2019s policies which have resulted in improved economic indicators at home, which will also contribute\u00a0 to enhancing his chances for reelection in 2020. However, curbing Iran and preventing it from repeating attacks on more Americans in the future and sending a message to the Iranians that attacking US bases, targets and interests in Iraq and across the region is considered a breach of the redlines set by the United States, which will force Iran to reconsider its plans to strike US targets is a significant electoral boost for Trump.<\/p>\n 3- US Awareness That Iraq is Unable to Provide the Required Protection for US Targets<\/strong> <\/em><\/p>\n Iraq is going through a period\u00a0 of security, political and economic turmoil due to the outbreak of mass protests against the Iraqi government. Protesters have demanded that early elections be held, corruption and unemployment crises cutting across the Iraqi state apparatuses be tackled and, more importantly, Iran and its militias be expelled from Iraq. This is in addition to the failure to name a new prime minister in place of the outgoing Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi because Iran insists on naming a prime minister who is loyal to Iran and who acts in accordance with its agenda. Furthermore, the resignation of Iraqi President Barham Salih is viewed as a sign of solidarity with the protesters who rejected the nomination of Assad Al Eidani as prime minister, who is affiliated with the al-Binaa Alliance which is backed by Iran. Therefore, according to the US perception, Iraq in such circumstances, will not be capable of providing the required protection for US interests, bases, and forces.<\/p>\n 4-The Possibility of Transforming\u00a0 US Strategy<\/strong> <\/em><\/p>\n The United States\u2019 motive behind carrying out the assassination at this time was perhaps influenced by the strategic conclusion that due to\u00a0 repeated Iranian acts of provocation, and targeting US interests and bases directly, that Washington should define\u00a0 its role as a power dominating the monopolar world order. This is achieved \u00a0by moving from deterrence via a negotiation\u00a0 strategy to deterrence via the use of force and direct retaliatory attacks. The proof of this is the United States\u2019 use of drones in assassinating the most influential figures and ringleaders of\u00a0 Iran\u2019s expansionist project across several Arab countries, including Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon. This is further illustrated by the Pentagon\u2019s deployment, on January 1, 2019, of 750 marines to protect the US embassy in Baghdad and the deployment of an additional 500 soldiers to Kuwait to deter possible strikes by militias against the US embassy in Kuwait as well as the Pentagon\u2019s approval, on 4 January 2020, to send 3,000 additional troops to the Middle East. This comes as the United States possesses more than 50 military bases encircling Iran, as well as jet carriers, military bases, and sophisticated equipment in the Gulf region. This is added to Trump\u2019s statement that he will hit 52 targets inside Iran if US forces are attacked.<\/p>\n Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n Insomuch as the assassinations of Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis reveal the level of US military capabilities, its ability to respond, and its preparedness to face up to the dangerous threats and that the post-Soleimani era is totally different from the era that preceded it, the assassinations reveal, in the same proportion, the threats to the security of the region, bringing it closer to the brink of war. Many of those possessing the voice of reason in the region seek to prevent this outcome, regardless of the level of Iranian provocations or the attacks by its proxy militias. The core essence of the US maximum pressure strategy is forcing Iran to change its behavior, not to drag the entire region into wars that\u00a0 destroy the peoples\u2019 resources. We still believe that the best option is to continue an approach based on proportionate responses. Escalation is not in favor of the international community, including Iran and the region\u2019s countries.<\/p>\n All parties should practice self-restraint and not be deluded into imagining that problems could be resolved by opening fire or hiding behind militias. The Middle East is still bearing the brunt of wars which it entered into in the 1990s and the 2000s, and it is not ready for the fueling of further tensions at this time.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" In a new and sudden escalation by the United States in its campaign against\u00a0 Iran, involving a high level of risk\u00a0 and aggravating\u00a0 existing tensions in the region which have been gathering since consecutive Iranian attacks threatened\u00a0 maritime navigation security in the Arabian Gulf<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":7313,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1402],"tags":[756,12,263,351,27,926,2466,2731,3865],"class_list":["post-7311","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-position-estimate","tag-baghdad","tag-iran","tag-iranian","tag-iraq","tag-oman","tag-qassem-suleimani","tag-rasanah","tag-rasanah-issues","tag-soleimani"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7311","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7311"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7311\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7321,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7311\/revisions\/7321"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7313"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7311"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7311"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7311"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nOnly two days after the attack carried out by the Iraqi Shiite militias on the US base, on December 29, 2019, the US army responded to Trump\u2019s directive. Using F-15 fighters, the US\u00a0 carried out reprisal attacks by bombing five facilities, bases and arms depots affiliated with Iraq\u2019s Hezbollah Brigades, which is one of the pro-Iran PMF factions. Three facilities were bombed in Iraq\u2019s Qaim city in Anbar province near the Iraqi-Syrian border and two facilities were hit in Syria on the border triangle with Iraq. The attack killed nearly 28 fighters, including the Hezbollah leader, the commander of the first regiment in the 45th<\/sup> Brigade, Abu Ali al-Khazali, who was\u00a0 one of the closest figures to Qassem Soleimani, and 48 other PMF affiliates were wounded.
\nThen Iran ordered its proxies, led by Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, to besiege the US embassy in Baghdad\u2019s\u00a0 Green Zone on December 31, 2019, which led to the destruction of the embassy\u2019s wall.\u00a0 Its main gates, towers, and security cameras were set on fire and windows were smashed. The protesters decided to hold a sit-in and demanded\u00a0\u00a0 US forces pull out from Iraq before PMF leaders urged them to\u00a0 swiftly withdraw\u00a0 from the vicinity of the US embassy on the request of the Iraqi government.
\nIntelligence reports indicated that the swift dispersal of the protesters around the US embassy came following a phone call from Trump to Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi. Trump threatened that storming the US embassy would result in grave consequences.
\nAfterward, Trump accused Iran of orchestrating the attack on the US embassy, holding it fully responsible.\u00a0 He asserted that the United States will adopt\u00a0 a strategy of preemptive strikes in order to abort Iranian plans to kill Americans in Iraq.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/01\/table.png\")
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