US sanctions have\ncurbed the Iranian government\u2019s destabilizing and expansionist activities in\nthe Middle East. They have weakened Iran\u2019s financial capabilities and its\nability to invest in high-tension areas in the region or in conflict zones in\nAfrica and South America. Iran\u2019s weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and\nballistic missile program, directly bankrolled by Iran\u2019s oil and gas revenues,\nhave also been curtailed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
US sanctions have also had an important impact on domestic\npolitics, especially with regard to voter turnout. There is no doubt that US\nsanctions have limited voter turnout, with the last parliamentary elections in\nFebruary witnessing the lowest turnout since the 1979 revolution. According to\ngovernment statistics, the voter turnout was 42\npercent<\/a>, however, opposition leaders believe that the\nactual turnout was even lower than this figure. The Iranian government blamed\nthe outbreak of the coronavirus on the low voter turnout. <\/p>\n\n\n\n US sanctions will continue to increase poverty, unemployment\nand inflation rates in Iran. This will have a direct impact on voter turnout in\nfuture elections, with the presidential elections scheduled in 2021. If the US\nsanctions continue, Iran\u2019s foreign exchange reserves will reach zero and\nforeign debt will increase. Under these circumstances, loyalists will also be\ndeprived of government subsidies and voter turnout in the next elections is\nexpected to decline by another 10 percent to 20 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n How Have the Sanctions\nWorked?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The Islamic Republic is governed by a centralized and\nmaximalist government, meaning that 1) the government monopolizes resources\n(about 80 percent), 2) the government wants the maximum number of people to be\ndependent on it (about half of the population live on the government’s\npayroll), and 3) the government wants to\nhave the maximum impact on the Iranian people through cultural, social, and\npolitical engineering. Therefore, any US policy that targets one of these three\npillars and mitigates their impact will influence the behavior of the Iranian\ngovernment, and importantly lead to the Iranian people distancing themselves\nfrom the political system. <\/p>\n\n\n\n US sanctions on Iran\u2019s oil industry have resulted in oil\nexports dwindling<\/a>. Iran can export energy and\ngoods to Iraq but cannot<\/a> receive its money. It has\nrecently been announced that Iran\u2019s $5 billion has been blocked in Iraqi banks.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n Under US sanctions, the government cannot play its\nmaximalist role. The Iranian government has complained<\/a> about its size and is\nseeking to cut personnel. Several hiring programs have been halted during the\nlast two years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n