There is an ongoing debate in Iran about how best to salvage the 2015 nuclear deal, from which the United States withdrew in 2018. Despite international calls to renegotiate a new nuclear deal with the Biden administration, one which tightens control over Iran\u2019s missile and nuclear programs, there is unanimity inside Iran that the nuclear deal, otherwise known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), should be preserved. The real disagreement is about how to ensure this. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iran\u2019s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,<\/a> says there is no point in trusting<\/a> a Biden administration, let alone renegotiating a new nuclear deal with it, and that the United States should rejoin the nuclear deal and lift the sanctions on Iran. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Iran\u2019s President Hassan Rouhani is open to renegotiating with the United States and other global powers, even if it means revising some of the provisions of the JCPOA, in order to help lift the sanctions on Iran. The United States\u2019 withdrawal from the nuclear deal and a plethora of tight sanctions could provide the Biden administration with more bargaining power against Iran<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, in December, Iran\u2019s hardline Parliament<\/a> passed a nuclear law<\/a> awkwardly dubbed the \u201cStrategic Action to Annul Sanctions and Defend the Iranian Nation\u2019s Interests.\u201d This law is crafted to lay out conditions for Iran in complying with the provisions of the JCPOA once again. Rouhani\u2019s government criticized the law, saying that it intends to derail future negotiations with the incoming US administration. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The law calls on Iran\u2019s government to increase uranium enrichment<\/a> to 20 percent and bars compliance with major segments of the JCPOA by encouraging the use of advanced 1,000 IR-2m centrifuges for enrichment<\/a> in order to accelerate the storage of higher-grade uranium<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Furthermore, the law threatens to hasten Iran\u2019s departure from the Additional Protocol of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty<\/a> (NPT), if the global powers do not help Iran to sell its oil and carry out international banking transactions. The Additional Protocol allows snap inspections of Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Finally, the law calls for punishing government officials who refuse to comply with it. Iranian officials could face up to 25 years in prison<\/a>. Iran\u2019s Parliament says the law\u2019s strict provisions end the one-way street Iran was on, trying but failing to convince the global powers to uphold the JCPOA<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Iran\u2019s hardline Guardian Council<\/a> has endorsed the law. This means that Rouhani\u2019s government must comply with the new law when it comes into effect in less than two months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In this tight time-frame, Rouhani may not have enough time to convince the incoming Biden administration to return to the JCPOA without preconditions, although Rouhani says he has no doubt that the United States will return<\/a> to the nuclear deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n European partners to the JCPOA, including France, Germany and the United Kingdom<\/a> called on Iran to not implement the new law. US allies in Europe, including Germany<\/a>, think that a new deal should be negotiated. At the same time, to appease Iran\u2019s \u201chardliners\u201d,\u00a0 the Europeans reiterated\u00a0 support for the JCPOA and UN Security Council Resolution 2231<\/a> which upholds it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In response, Iran\u2019s government initially dismissed international concerns<\/a> about the law, and said that it will comply with the JCPOA<\/a> if the United States rejoins the nuclear deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u00a0However, it is clear that by passing the law, Iran\u2019s \u201chardliners\u201d are aiming to out-maneuver the Biden administration<\/a> by forcing it to quickly rejoin the JCPOA. Moreover, it\u00a0\u00a0 aims to pressure\u00a0 Biden not to capitulate to the Republican Party\u2019s demand to craft a new nuclear deal which would include provisions to curtail Iran\u2019s ballistic missile program and interference in the sovereign affairs of neighboring countries.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n So far, the law\u00a0 has prompted the EU foreign ministers<\/a> to agree not to set new conditions to revive the JCPOA.\u00a0Iran\u2019s \u201chardliners\u201d have also forced\u00a0 the embattled Rouhani government to shift its position\u00a0 and support them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Rouhani now argues that he will only talk to the Biden administration about reviving the JCPOA\u00a0if Washington<\/a>\u00a0upholds its provisions. Iran\u2019s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif confirmed that Iran will reject new talks<\/a> until the United States\u00a0rejoins the JCPOA. He urged the European partners to the JCPOA to save the deal<\/a> by remaining committed to it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n President-elect Biden<\/a> has not made it clear how he aims to address this challenge. He wants to return to the deal, but at the same time wants to make changes to it to ensure its longevity.\u00a0Biden\u2019s National Security Advisor-designate Jake Sullivan says the United States will build a follow-on agreement<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Meanwhile, the Gulf states\u00a0 and Israel<\/a> are urging the new US administration to\u00a0 design a new deal before easing pressure on Iran. The Trump administration\u00a0 imposed a plethora of tough sanctions<\/a>\u00a0 on Iran during the last two years, and recently targeted\u00a0 organizations directly linked to the Iranian supreme leader.\u00a0Other parties to the JCPOA, including Russia<\/a> and China<\/a> want the United States to rejoin\u00a0 the nuclear deal without stipulating preconditions<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Iran\u2019s \u201chardliners\u201d are untrusting of the United States, especially after the recent assassination of the Iranian nuclear scientist<\/a> Mohsen Fakhrizadeh which they blame on Israel and Washington. They also think that Rouhani is delusional to believe that US-Iran relations will normalize under the Biden administration. This is because Biden could be unsuccessful in lifting the Trump era sanctions on Iran or rejoining the JCPOA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u00a0Iranian economists\u00a0 are warning the \u201chardliners\u201d that Iran\u00a0 cannot survive under perpetual sanctions, and will face rising inflation<\/a>. Rouhani\u2019s government is already facing a severe budget deficit and struggling to deal with the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, it is facing criticism as it has based\u00a0 next year\u2019s budget<\/a> on the assumption that the United States will rejoin the JCPOA and lift sanctions as stipulated under the nuclear deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n