{"id":8730,"date":"2021-01-19T10:18:27","date_gmt":"2021-01-19T07:18:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/?p=8730"},"modified":"2021-01-19T10:18:29","modified_gmt":"2021-01-19T07:18:29","slug":"diplomacy-overrides-revenge-in-iran-amidst-bidens-transition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/monitoring-and-translation\/reports\/diplomacy-overrides-revenge-in-iran-amidst-bidens-transition\/","title":{"rendered":"Diplomacy Overrides Revenge in Iran Amidst Biden\u2019s Transition"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Though the first anniversary of Qassem Soleimani\u2019s death passed without Iran exacting the \u201chard revenge\u201d it had vowed,  the United States and its allies in the Gulf flexed their military muscle in anticipation of possible Iranian attacks.  The United States dispatched an aircraft carrier group and its heavy bombers to the Gulf, while an Israeli attack submarine simultaneously crossed the Suez Canal<\/a> into the Red Sea, sparking Iran\u2019s rage<\/a>. These military movements coincided with Iran\u2019s President Hassan Rouhani signing  the nuclear bill that would lead to Tehran increasing its uranium enrichment to 20 percent in contravention of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).  The IAEA was duly informed<\/a> of the nuclear bill, prompting its director general to sound the alarm<\/a> about the urgency to salvage the 2015 nuclear deal \u201cwithin weeks and not months.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The limits of Tehran\u2019s double-edged strategy were exposed when it attempted to strike a delicate balance between belligerence and amenability. The ongoing Iranian mixed signaling is nothing new. However, this strategy of sending mixed messages has been employed more fully in anticipation of the incoming Biden-Harris administration which is set to take office on January 20.  As a result, it is not likely that Tehran will rush to raise its uranium enrichment purity levels immediately. It is apparent that the nuclear bill intends to pressure the United States to rejoin the JCPOA and lift the harsh sanctions imposed on Tehran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the Atlantic, a different kind of storm is brewing. Trump seems to have been deserted by key Republican lawmakers <\/a> (10 voting for impeachment and four abstaining) as the Democratic Party initiates its second impeachment process. Whatever the outcome,  the storming of Capitol Hill has brought  the Democrats and Republicans closer together in opposition to Trump\u2019s policies.  The fissures among the Republican National Committee will not only  help Biden to confirm his cabinet nominees, they will also help in forcing  a compromise in dealing with the Iranian quagmire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was spotted dining with Mossad Chief Yossi Cohen at Cafe Milano<\/a> in Washington DC on Monday. The Israeli spy chief\u2019s visit to the United States  at the very tail-end of Trump\u2019s presidency would no doubt have sent an unsettling signal  to Iran as well as to other JCPOA members, which have done their best to avert any preemptive military action against Tehran. It is believed that the intensive Israeli midnight air raids<\/a> in Syria  against Iran\u2019s proxy militias on January 12 are  linked to the duo\u2019s meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tel Aviv\u2019s constant pressure creates a dilemma for Tehran as it cannot overlook a threat while desperately seeking to appease the incumbent government in Washington. The likelihood of Trump launching an attack against Iran has lessened because of   the many internal issues facing the United States at this moment in time.  Senate Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi was in  direct contact<\/a> with the US military chief after the storming of Capitol Hill  and raised the issue of Trump potentially launching an  attack against a foreign nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Amidst the United States sending military reinforcements to the Gulf, Iran unveiled a new \u201cunderground missile city\u201d on January 8, which \u201cis one of several bases housing the Guards\u2019 Navy\u2019s strategic missiles,\u201d according to<\/a> IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami. While the strategic community believes such underground bases to be near the Gulf\u2019s coastal waters, there are no specific details  about their location as well as no information about the capability of the weapons systems deployed at these bases.  Nonetheless, such bases not only provide  Iran with credible deterrence but also offer it offensive capabilities.  Iran\u2019s continuing quest for a smarter sub-system for its weapons and its involvement in money laundering led to the arrest<\/a> of  two Iranian nationals in Ontario, Canada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On January 15, Iran initiated an unannounced drill of fighter jets, missiles, drones and air defense systems. Later, the IRGC chief announced that the drill will continue for five days, concluding the day Biden is inaugurated  as the 46th<\/sup> US president. Meanwhile, one of Iran\u2019s test-fired missiles hit the Arabian Sea, dangerously close<\/a> to a merchant ship and about 150 kilometers from the US supercarrier USS Nimitz. Iran also claimed to have warned an enemy submarine<\/a> to stay clear of the area as its own submerged ship fired a torpedo on a \u201ctarget\u201d in the Gulf waters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another noteworthy dimension of Iran\u2019s belligerence is its policing of the Gulf waters. Ahead of Biden\u2019s inauguration on January 20, Iran is putting pressure on South Korea over its seized tanker<\/a> MT Hankuk Chemi. Iran claims that the tanker was seized for  causing pollution in Gulf waters.  Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stated that the tanker\u2019s seizure  was a technical issue  and must not be politicized. However, he called on South Korea to unfreeze  $7 billion in oil payments during a meeting with the South Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choi Jong-kun. Despite this Iranian attempt to pressure South Korea, Seoul can wait for a few more weeks instead of giving into Tehran\u2019s blackmail.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Trump is facing  many internal challenges, Iran seems unlikely to  go  beyond defiant posturing and refrains from taking  matters into its own hands. Prudence seems to triumph amid the ongoing tensions between Washington and Tehran. There is no doubt the storming of Capitol Hill has reduced the pressure on Iran.  Hence, Tehran is raising the stakes for the Biden administration to start early talks and rejoin the JCPOA. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Though the first anniversary of Qassem Soleimani\u2019s death passed without Iran exacting the \u201chard revenge\u201d it had vowed,  the United States and its allies in the Gulf flexed their military muscle in anticipation of possible Iranian attacks.  The United States dispatched an aircraft carrier group and its heavy bombers to the Gulf, while an Israeli […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":249,"featured_media":8731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8730","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-reports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8730","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/249"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8730"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8730\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8732,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8730\/revisions\/8732"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8730"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8730"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8730"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}