{"id":9469,"date":"2021-07-15T14:59:38","date_gmt":"2021-07-15T11:59:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/?p=9469"},"modified":"2021-07-17T12:18:22","modified_gmt":"2021-07-17T09:18:22","slug":"the-ramifications-of-iraqs-electricity-crisis-and-the-iranian-dimension","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/position-estimate\/the-ramifications-of-iraqs-electricity-crisis-and-the-iranian-dimension\/","title":{"rendered":"The Ramifications of Iraq\u2019s Electricity Crisis and the Iranian Dimension"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Iraq\u2019s national electricity grid was totally shut down on the dawn of July 2, 2021, causing a tremendous power shortage and a sudden crisis in power production \u2014 declining from 16,000 megawatts to 4,000 megawatts. The power outage impacted the main power supply line connecting the capital Baghdad to the southern provinces. Iraqis, in many governorates, were plunged into darkness, especially those living in the Shiite-majority ones.  A few days later, given the scorching temperatures, vandalism and arson attacks were launched against power transmission buildings and stations, raising concerns about the revival of widespread protests leading to destabilization and a security crisis across the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This total  power shutdown exposes one of the most complicated crises that Iraq is facing. It is the second largest exporter in OPEC and  has the second largest  oil reserves in the Arab world.  The power crisis has always been a critical test for all  Iraqi governments. It is exacerbated during the summer months as unbearable heatwaves hit the country with scorching temperatures soaring to 50 degrees in the shade and 60 degrees under direct sunlight.  Iraq\u2019s  snowballing power crisis is because of  a shortage in supply and an increase in demand (especially in the summertime). In addition, it has been exacerbated by an ever-increasing population.  This raises questions about identifying the dimensions of the crisis, the extent of Iran\u2019s role in complicating it, and the role of the Gulf states  in mitigating its impact via supplying power to Iraq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I-Key Causes of Iraq\u2019s Power Crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iraq\u2019s electricity crisis has been present for a long while. The country has been suffering from an electricity shortage since the 1990s. The shortage was exacerbated tremendously post 2003.  Iraq witnessed Iranian intervention and infiltration into   its sovereign institutions \u2014 under a precise  stratagem devised by Iran to add  Iraq  to its expansionist plans and  vital spheres of influence, therefore, Iraq is a top priority for Tehran.  The power crisis, apparently, is getting more complicated for the following reasons:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A-Relying on Iran\u2019s Power Supply (Gas and Electricity) <\/em>   <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iraq\u2019s  total  electricity production capacity (including Iran\u2019s supply) is  estimated at approximately 16,000 megawatts<\/a>, according to  former Minister of Electricity Majd Mahdi Hantoush. Yet Iraq is massively in need of 30,000 megawatts to meet  its daily demands of power, i.e., the current shortage of power is nearly 14,000 megawatts (49 percent).  This shortage  led to power outages which lasted  for about eight hours each day, raising fears of massive protests erupting across Iraq.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iraq imports one third<\/a> of its power supply (gas and electricity) from Iran. For example, Iran\u2019s power exports to Iraq in 2019 were approximately less than one third of Iraq\u2019s total electricity production, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). In 2019, Iraq\u2019s electricity capacity was dependent on Iran in the following way:  23 percent was generated from Iran\u2019s natural gas, and 5 percent was imported from Iran, estimated at 5,000 megawatts to 6,000 megawatts.  Iran, therefore, has had a strong bargaining chip against Iraq\u2019s executive governments since 2003. The major cause of Iraq\u2019s ongoing power dilemma is because of Iran decreasing its power supply to Iraq since October 2020 and halting it completely in June 29, 2021<\/a> due to Iraq\u2019s accumulating debts and  Tehran\u2019s need to address its own domestic energy crisis.  As mentioned above, one third of Iraq\u2019s power sector depends on Iran\u2019s exports and its power deficit has reached nearly 50 percent. Thus, Iraq\u2019s power production fell sharply to unprecedented levels in just a few years, with the country generating barely less than 10,000 megawatts on normal days because of various reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B- Iran\u2019s Politicization of the Crisis<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran is fully aware of the crisis and its impact on Iraq\u2019s political equations,  especially in the summertime, and has exploited it since 2003 as a bargaining chip against the Iraqi government to  keep Baghdad within Tehran\u2019s spheres of influence.  Amid Iraq\u2019s rising demand for electricity and a growing population,  the crisis has been exacerbated further. Iran supplied four Iraqi power stations in the south: Nasiriyah, Basrah, Diyala, and Samawah. These stations are of great value for Iran as they can be used to provide power to the Shiite-majority provinces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The crisis can be interpreted as having political dimensions because of  its timing and the benefits accruing to Iran\u2019s proxies. Iran completely halted electricity exports to place further pressure on Iraq\u2019s  Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, who has tilted towards forging a balance of power in the country\u2019s  foreign relations and prioritized Baghdad\u2019s return to its  Arab fold.  Iran aims to inflame people\u2019s dissatisfaction and anger, paving the way for the eruption of protests against Kadhimi \u2014 similar to  the protests in 2018 and 2020 against the governments of Haider al-Abadi and Adel Abdul Mahdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These Iranian moves come against the backdrop of  Tehran\u2019s increasing escalation against the West to pressure it to lift the sanctions and with  Iraq\u2019s parliamentary elections looming which are scheduled for  October 2021. In addition, Iranian moves come at a time when Iraq is making moves to  return to the Arab fold and the  Gulf states are attempting to secure the region\u2019s energy supply.  Finally,  the tripartite summit between Egypt, Jordan and Iraq in Baghdad to  push forward economic and trade integration between the three countries raised concerns in Tehran. Iran  is perplexed by Iraq\u2019s intentions to be independent from its sphere of influence.  Iran realized Baghdad\u2019s divergence from its spheres of influence, so  Tehran\u2019s policy is  to create domestic instability through complicating the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iraq realizes Iran\u2019s role in exacerbating  its power crisis. During his meeting with a member of the Emergency Crisis Cell on July 3, 2021, Kadhimi wondered why the previous Iraqi governments had linked <\/a> the country\u2019s electricity grids to Iran for 17 years, while other countries across the world diversify their electricity sources. In response, the Iraqi government proposed a project to link Iraq\u2019s electricity grids with the Gulf states, Jordan and Egypt to diversify its power sources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C- Spread of Corruption<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to  the  \u201cCorruption Perceptions Index (CPI) 2020\u201d published by Transparency International, Iraq is ranked 160 out of 180<\/a> countries in terms of corruption levels. The pervasive corruption in the country denies the Iraqi people of their basic rights such as access to electricity, and other vital commodities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 Iraq\u2019s former  Minister of Electricity Hantoush stated in May 2021 that the cost of electricity production in Iraq is extremely high, pinpointing  corruption in the country.  The state had spent nearly $80 billion on electricity<\/a> from 2003 to May 2021 as an operational and investment budget for the oil  sector.  Moen al-Dulaimi, an Iraqi electrical engineer said<\/a>: \u201cPeople have the right to wonder on what  this tremendous amount of money  was spent. Was it spent on the electricity sector?  Did it vanish  due to the winds of corruption, nepotism, waste,  and phantom deals?\u201d According to a probe by a parliamentary committee headed by Hassan al-Kaebi, vice speaker of Iran\u2019s Parliament, the amount of money spent on the electricity sector over the last 17 years  is record-breaking, adding that some countries spent less than a quarter and  were able to generate electricity, exceeding 30,000 megawatts such as Egypt and Morocco<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A main cause behind the pervasive corruption in Iraq\u2019s government apparatuses is Iran\u2019s growing influence. Iran\u2019s policy has intended to suspend qualified  Iraqis  from taking part in Iraq\u2019s decision-making process, especially when forming  governments. Further,  Iran has supported under-qualified officials who are loyal to Tehran and implement its agenda.  This is to maintain Baghdad within Iran\u2019s expansionist stratagem. Fighting various forms of corruption starts first with fighting political corruption, and  financial and administrative corruption exist under this dimension.  It also starts with uprooting the Iran-backed militias mushrooming in Iraq, a difficult challenge which cannot be achieved in just a few years \u2014  considering this political reality, the Iraqi crisis will exacerbate  and deepen further. .<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D- Targeting the  Electrical System as a Bargaining Chip<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

 Iran-backed militias and other terrorist organizations have a common goal:  to systematically target Iraqi electricity stations and power transmission networks. This is  to place pressure on the Iraqi government to make concessions  in their favor or to undermine its performance in front of  the Iraqi public. They also want Iraq to fall into the abyss of  chaos and instability, so that they can implement their plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attacks targeting Iraq\u2019s power grid have equaled approximately 35 attacks since the beginning of 2021.  Some of these attacks were carried out by ISIS (Daesh), which on June 27, 2021, claimed  responsibility  for launching Katyusha<\/a> rocket attacks against Salah al-Din Power Station in the city of Samarra. Other attacks were carried out in the territories liberated from ISIS such as the Salah al-Din, Karuk and  Diyala governorates \u2014 where the militant group faced a sequence of defeats, according to Iraq\u2019s Security Media Cell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some attacks were launched by other militias. A security source told Iraq News Network that the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) targeted power transmission towers in response to  Iranian orders for achieving certain political and economic objectives. Neither the Iranian statements nor the ISIS claims of responsibility are accurate because the power transmission towers under attack were located within the PMF\u2019s spheres of influence<\/a> in Salah al-Din, Karuk, Diyala and  Mosul.  The Katyusha rockets used in the attacks belong to the PMF, according to  security sources.    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The blowing up and sabotage of multiple power stations caused a spike in the number of blackout hours, prompting multiple local residents to switch to power generators. This gave rise to the phenomenon of \u201csmall generator\u201d traders who have profiteered and benefited from the power crisis. Perhaps the systematic attacks on the power transmission towers and stations is a message to Iraq\u2019s Arab  Gulf partners in the field of electricity supply  that  their stations will face attacks and  sabotage. The aim is to push them to reconsider their supply of electricity to Iraq, and for the country to remain under Iranian influence. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

E-Iraq\u2019s Weak Policies in Power Crisis Management<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

 Iraq\u2019s  Ministry of Electricity  lacks a national strategic vision to benefit from the country\u2019s resources to address its electricity crisis.  Consecutive Iraqi governments  have not depended on  the country\u2019s locally-produced gas nor on its  associated petroleum gas and free gas \u2014 to resolve the electricity crisis.  This has led to an excessive waste of money and corruption in Iraq\u2019s electricity file.   Iraq\u2019s associated petroleum gas makes up 70 percent of the country\u2019s gas reserves.  However, over 60 percent of it has been wasted because of  burning over the past years and due to the lack of much-needed infrastructure to drill rock formations.  It is a paradox that Iraq burns nearly tenfold the amount of gas it imports from Iran, according to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. It can secure up to 75 percent of Iraq\u2019s gas needs <\/a> if  it is drilled properly.  The report, issued by the World Bank\u2019s Global Gas Flaring Reduction Partnership (GGFR) in 2020, said that Iraq is one of the world\u2019s leading countries in burning gas<\/a>.  It is the second-biggest worldwide, with only Russia burning more associated petroleum gas than Iraq.  World Bank figures indicated that in 2016, Iraq burned 17.73 billion cubic meters of gas. In 2019, it rose to  17.9 billion cubic meters of gas. On the other side, the free gas in Diyala and western Anbar accounts for nearly 30 percent of the available gas in Iraq. But  it is hard to depend on due to the high cost of drilling, prospection, and extraction, which renders investment  unattainable. It is a huge waste of money worth billions of dollars at a time when Iraq imports gas from Iran worth millions of dollars. Germany\u2019s Siemens indicated in 2020 that Iraq could save $5.2 billion<\/a> over the coming four years in case it reduces the  percentage of burned gas and achieves self-sufficiency in gas to operate its power stations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 Iraq\u2019s Minister of Electricity  Qasim al-Fahdawi said that there are outside actors \u2014 in reference to Iran and its proxies \u2014 who are working to prevent Iraq from  utilizing  associated petroleum gas. He said: \u201cThere are disputes that made the stability of the electricity infrastructure a pawn in the Iranian agenda<\/a>,\u201d adding that the former  Minister of Electricity Jabbar Alluaibi had attempted to  drill for associated petroleum gas in Nahran Omar field, but he faced tremendous difficulties and challenges because of vested interests and external influence.  He noted that this field \u201cwould have saved 75 percent of the amount of gas imported from Iran<\/a> at a very low cost.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There has been a lack of coordination between  Iraq\u2019s consecutive electricity ministers since 2003 and the Iraqi Ministry of Oil particularly to pinpoint which resources to exploit in the best way possible and how to prevent the huge energy waste that reaches nearly 40 percent because of the country\u2019s aging networks, grids and transmission\/distribution lines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among the paradoxes is that Iraq\u2019s electricity production capacity is close to 32,000 megawatts while it produces only half of this amount (16,000 megawatts) because of  aging transmission and distribution supply lines,  according to a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency in 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kadhimi indicated on multiple occasions that  Iraq\u2019s electricity transmission supply lines lose  40 percent of production because of the country\u2019s aging networks and its inability  to develop sophisticated transmission and distribution supply lines. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

II – Arab and Gulf Interconnection as a Prospective Solution to Resolve the Electricity Crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the context of its efforts  to mitigate the negative impacts of the electricity crisis on the Iraqi people  on the one hand and  develop workable solutions on the other hand, the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity in 2019 signed with the Gulf states  an agreement to supply Iraq with electricity.  Kadhimi announced the beginning of electricity interconnectivity  with the Gulf states and that  Iraq has accomplished 85 percent of the work, adding that it  will be completed in 2022<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In August 2020, spokesman for the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity Ahmed al-Abadi revealed that the technical workings related to the interconnectivity of  electrical grids with Saudi Arabia have reached an advanced stage, and the first  interconnectivity grid between Iraq and Saudi Arabia will  extend towards Basra and provide it with 500 megawatts. The second grid will  extend towards Samawah and  provide it with nearly 300 megawatts to help in overcoming the  power outages in the two provinces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Iraqi-Saudi electricity  interconnectivity project  falls within  Saudi Arabia\u2019s plan to develop  Iraq and  strengthen its Arab depth. It is one of the most important mutual development projects. It aims to  mitigate Iraq\u2019s  electricity crisis, bolster  its ability to meet  growing demand and help in dealing with the suffering facing the Iraqi people because of the constant power outages, particularly in the summer. As for electricity  interconnectivity with Jordan, the spokesman for the Ministry of Electricity revealed that 26 months is the timeframe to complete the first phase of the interconnectivity project with Jordan. It shall secure 150 megawatts of energy to the western provinces, and it will increase to 900 megawatts in the subsequent phases. In addition, the Jordanian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources revealed that an agreement has been signed to provide Iraq with electricity from Jordan. The first phase of the project has started, in which 1,000 megawatts will be exported to Iraq from Jordan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When it comes to the electricity  interconnectivity project between Egypt and Iraq, the Egyptian Minister of Electricity and Renewable Energy Mohammed Shaker revealed that the  project was agreed upon during the tripartite summit.  Egypt already has electricity interconnectivity  with Jordan. A source in the Egyptian Ministry of Electricity said that the capacity of the electrical  grid with Jordan will be boosted to 2,000 megawatts and 3,000 megawatts instead of the current capacity of 150 megawatts, so it can supply Iraq in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Arab and Gulf states\u2019 moves to establish electricity interconnectivity with Iraq face challenges particularly due to Iran-backed militias rejecting these plans and sabotaging them. These  moves will have a major impact on  Iran\u2019s influence in Iraq on the one hand. On the other hand, these moves will deprive Iran and its militias from benefitting financially as to date they have reaped rewards by providing Iraq with electricity at high prices. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dr. Abdulrahman al-Mashhadani, an economics professor at Al-Iraqia University, pointed to the huge gap in the price of exporting a unit of electricity  to Iraq. While Iraq imports the unit from Iran at 9 cents, Saudi Arabia offered exporting the unit at 2 cents<\/a>, which explains the multiple visits of Iranian officials to Iraq in recent times  to dissuade Iraq from its electricity interconnectivity projects with  the Arab and Gulf states. Hence, it is likely that the Iranian parties will be negatively impacted, leading them to  create political and security challenges. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

III- The Alternative Solutions to Mitigate the Crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Arab and Gulf  projects to supply electricity  to Iraq are likely to be completed by the summer of 2022, at the earliest. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But these projects are insufficient to address the electricity crisis in Iraq as the deficit that needs to be covered to resolve the crisis is nearly half of Baghdad\u2019s total production (16,000 megawatts). Hence, there are some solutions that have been suggested to mitigate this crisis, however, their execution could need at least one year to reap the fruits and address the crisis, given its complicated causes and realities. These solutions include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n