{"id":9675,"date":"2021-09-16T09:47:08","date_gmt":"2021-09-16T06:47:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/?p=9675"},"modified":"2021-09-29T13:16:52","modified_gmt":"2021-09-29T10:16:52","slug":"ebrahim-raisi-ambiguous-future-for-irans-foreign-policy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/centre-for-researches-and-studies\/ebrahim-raisi-ambiguous-future-for-irans-foreign-policy\/","title":{"rendered":"Ebrahim Raisi: Ambiguous Future for Iran\u2019s Foreign Policy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Introduction<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ebrahim Raisi took office amid internal, and external crises and challenges, considered the most difficult since the 1979 revolution. The new Iranian president is facing  mushrooming economic and diplomatic crises along with social woes. Regional  countries,  particularly the Gulf states, hope that the new president will start a fresh chapter of regional relations based on cooperation and  build bridges of trust to guarantee the stability, security, and vital economic interests of the region. However, the light of hope has been waning,  with most indicators  forecasting that Iran\u2019s policy is tilting towards further extremism and escalation at all levels, not only at home but also at the regional and global level.  Raisi fully adopts the position of the supreme leader. He is known for his close ties with Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and his notorious  human rights violations. He was a member of the Death Committee, which supervised the executions of thousands of Iranian opponents under the direct supervision of Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini.  His electoral win was not only a shock and source of distress for  the world, but also for  Iran\u2019s elite at home. Raisi is not the only IRGC linked person  who came to power; other revolutionaries were also nominated to the government \u2014 most of them  are former IRGC officers or have strong ties to the IRGC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This study sheds light on four major topics: the implications of the revolutionaries\u2019 unprecedented dominance over power in Iran; the prevailing pessimism  regarding  the revival of the nuclear deal with Iran; rising mutual escalation between Iran and Israel that has caused disturbances in the region; and the difficulty in reaching a political understanding and inclusive reconciliation with Saudi Arabia despite positive remarks from both sides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study mainly argues that all the indications, from the beginning of Raisi\u2019s assumption of power, do not bode well for the future. In the upcoming years, we are unlikely to see a decrease in Iran\u2019s sectarianism, nor in its proxy wars in the region. Furthermore, constructive negotiations regarding Iran\u2019s nuclear and ballistic missile programs with the international community seem unlikely. Iran is not expected to reduce its cyber, maritime, missile, and drone attacks. Rather, it will continue to present  a strategic dilemma, thus hindering any form of stability and peaceful coexistence in the Middle East, unless the people at home, who are suffering from deteriorating living conditions, stage a popular uprising that undermines the  fundamental pillars  of the political system itself, or the international community resorts to adopting constructive strategic resolutions against Iran\u2019s arrogance and violations of international law \u2013 which will push  it to reconsider its strategic calculations, halt its offensive policies, and adopt the language of dialogue and partnership as the sole basis for resolving disagreements.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. Indications of the  Revolutionaries\u2019 Unprecedented Dominance Over  Power<\/strong><\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    The primary concern, which is the main indication of Iran\u2019s increasing arrogance in the coming years is that the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has successfully managed to place all the pillars of the ruling system under the grip of the \u201chardliners\u201d and former IRGC officers, who follow the principles  of the Iranian revolution and the positions of the supreme leader.     The political equation made up of the  \u201creformists\u201d and \u201cconservatives\u201d has become somewhat irrelevant. Raisi announced that his government  functions in accordance with the principles of the Iranian revolution and the approach of its founder, Ruhollah Khomeini. His remarks clearly affirm that he will be directed by and submit to  the supreme leader.   His remarks  also indicate that he will not operate beyond his remit  like past presidents who tried to do so and  his rise to power is to ensure an overhaul of  the social system so that it is line with Iran\u2019s revolutionary ideology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Today we witness a comprehensive transformation in Iran\u2019s political system, including its councils and executive government, into one absolute power-centric approach and  vision in order to implement the orders of the supreme leader and his close inner circle of decision-makers. This means  that the regional countries need to forge new policies to address a looming crisis.  This is quite likely, given the speech delivered by Raisi during his swearing-in ceremony at the Iranian Parliament. \u201cWe will stand by the oppressed, whether they are in Europe or the United States, in Yemen, Syria or Palestine [\u2026] We will be the voice of the oppressed and commit to the principles of the Islamic Revolution,\u201d Raisi said in his speech.[1]<\/a> He confirmed before everybody that he came to power to revive the zest and spirit of the revolution, and to further translate revolutionary rhetoric into reality. In addition, he confirmed that he would remain committed to the revolution\u2019s principles and  ideological values.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    It is worth mentioning that the circumstances surrounding the election, which led to the disqualification of  other candidates and full backing  for Raisi to win the presidency, provide solid evidence that he came to power at a critical stage in light of the need to safely  transfer power post-Khamenei,  i.e., to consolidate Velayat-e Faqih as the bedrock of Iran\u2019s ruling system. Raisi, quite apparently, is the most likely person to succeed Khamenei even though he has not been granted yet the honorific title of ayatollah, which is given to  high-ranking Twelver Shiite clergy. The sitting Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had the title of  hojatoleslam before succeeding Khomeini; a lower rank than ayatollah. He was immediately bestowed with the title of ayatollah after becoming supreme leader as  the rank is a precondition for the supreme leader\u2019s post. Khamenei\u2019s case might be repeated with Raisi. Probably, interest lobbies of Iranian political, military, and religious elites will unanimously agree on Raisi to be the next supreme leader \u2014 just like the case of Khamenei. Raisi, from the very beginning is fully supported by the supreme leader and all the authorities and institutions of the ruling system in addition to state-run media outlets. \u201cFollowing the people\u2019s choice, I task the wise, indefatigable, experienced and popular Hojatoleslam Ebrahim Raisi as president of the Islamic Republic of Iran,\u201d Khamenei wrote in a decree read out by his chief of staff at the inauguration ceremony.[2]<\/a>  The flattering remarks of the supreme leader indicate his strong support for Raisi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    To consolidate the revolutionaries further in power, Iran\u2019s new Parliament elected Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a \u201cconservative\u201d leader and a former IRGC general as its new speaker, succeeding Ali Larijani who supported  former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and was an advocate of nuclear talks with the West.  In contrast, Ghalibaf  harshly criticized Rouhani\u2019s performance and described the nuclear  talks with the United States as \u201cuseless and harmful,\u201d adding, \u201cOur strategy toward the terroristic America is to complete our vengeance for the blood of the martyr Soleimani.\u201d[3]<\/a> Ghalibaf has played a critical role in making the Iranian Parliament adopt  extreme policies  towards commencing nuclear talks with the United States. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The dominance of the revolutionaries  is not limited to the presidency and Parliament, it also includes the judiciary. The Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed former Intelligence and Security Minister Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje\u2019i as Iran\u2019s chief justice to succeed Raisi. This raised the concerns of human rights observers on the future of Iran\u2019s human rights record  because the new chief justice has been  accused of repressing   intellectuals and  cracking down on political activists when he was working in the judiciary and during his  time as Iran\u2019s intelligence and security minister in Ahmadinejad\u2019s government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    President Raisi appointed Mohammad Mokhber, president of the Execution of Imam Khomeini\u2019s Order (EIKO) and a former IRGC commander, as his first vice president.  Mokhber was blacklisted by the US Treasury in January. Iranian legislators provided  a vote of confidence to 18 out of the 19 ministers proposed by President Raisi, most of the new ministers are linked to  the \u201cconservatives.\u201d  In forming the new Iranian government, Raisi mainly selected  candidates who are  linked to  the \u201cconservatives,\u201d and some of them had worked  under the former Ahmadinejad administration.   No woman was included in Raisi\u2019s 19-member government.  This raised concerns that Raisi might seek to undermine  women\u2019s rights. Further, his list did not include any Sunni candidate, which indicates that the sitting government will widen the gap of sectarianism and sexism between Iranians by exercising blatant discrimination. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    His list also included candidates who have been accused of involvement in  terrorism or corruption and individuals  who have held high-ranking posts in the IRGC and former governments with accusations of involvement in  suspicious corruption cases. The lion\u2019s share of ministerial appointments were in favor of IRGC commanders. Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, a former Iranian diplomat close to the IRGC\u2019s Quds Force, was appointed as  Iran\u2019s foreign minister.[4]<\/a> Amir-Abdollahian has strong ties with Iran\u2019s regional proxies; the so-called \u201cAxis of Resistance,\u201d most prominently Iraqi militias and the Lebanese Hezbollah. He is known to embrace the positions of  the supreme leader.  Amir-Abdollahian has carried out diplomatic missions with Iran\u2019s neighboring countries. He was a main member of the delegation which negotiated with American officials in Baghdad in 2007 over Iraq\u2019s security situation post-US invasion.[5]<\/a> This means that he is well-versed in Gulf affairs. His involvement in foreign affairs once again indicates  that Iran\u2019s  future foreign policy will not  be open to others, something all regional countries are waiting for. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Ahmad Vahidi, a former IRGC general, was appointed as minister of interior; it is his second ministerial post after taking up the defense portfolio  during the second tenure of the Ahmadinejad government (2009-2013). He is wanted by Interpol for his role in the bombing of a Jewish community center (AMIA) in Buenos Aires. By appointing Vahidi as a minister of interior, the IRGC has maintained a firm grip over   most  of Iran\u2019s  ministries. This will allow the IRGC to consolidate its  control and supervision  over Iran\u2019s internal security apparatuses which implement  the directives of Iran\u2019s ruling system. Based on the \u201chardliner\u201d  approach of President Raisi, it is likely that the Ministry of Interior will impose harsh  protocols against protests in Iran, every now and then.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Mohammad Reza Ashtiani was appointed as defense minister. He  was sanctioned by Washington in 2020,  and since July 2019, served as Iran\u2019s deputy chief of staff of  its armed forces.   His ministerial program submitted to the Parliament included: internal and external concerns; future projects to  advance Iran\u2019s policies in the upcoming phase; the listing of the main pillars and principles of Iran\u2019s political system in  relation to continuing political and military support for terrorist groups across the region and the world; and the legitimization of Iran\u2019s intervention in other countries\u2019 affairs.  He confirmed the government\u2019s commitment to developing Iran\u2019s ballistic missile program as  the country\u2019s most prominent form of deterrence. This is in addition to  advancing the  weapons capability of the Iranian navy amid the current snowballing conflicts in the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.[6]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Esmail Khatib was appointed as minister of security and intelligence. He had served as director of the Intelligence Office for 12 consecutive years since 1991. Later, he served as the director of the Protection and Information Center of the judiciary for seven years.  After he was suspended from his post during the Ahmadinejad tenure, he served as the director of the Supreme Leader\u2019s Office in Qom.  This means that he is close to the supreme leader who approved his nomination to the current post. In defense of his ministerial program, Khatib said, \u201c[The unknown soldiers of Imam az-Zaman (the Imam of all time)] dedicated all of their efforts to establishing security in these countries. They have sacrificed themselves in countering enemies, plots, sedition, and agents of the arrogant front, armed groups, and spies. Thus, we have to remember and honor them.\u201d[7]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Nominating \u201chardliners\u201d to represent the new government indicates that the political establishment realizes that its popularity has been eroded and that it is ready to do whatever is necessary to maintain its cohesion, power, and  revolutionary path.  This means Iran  is heading backwards not forwards and this path  does not reflect the aspirations of the Iranian people; the majority are young who have experienced  dramatic changes and aspire for  real change and reform. They want to lift Iran from its slumber so that it can meet its financial needs and deal with growing socioeconomic woes.  Their aspirations cannot be compromised, neither can they be oppressed by the Iranian government, otherwise it risks domestic uprisings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    2-Indications of Political Will to Acquire Nuclear Weapons<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The second prominent indication of the dominance of the \u201chardline\u201d approach and the Iranian political system\u2019s escalating behavior is the growing international concern over the nuclear talks and expectations that  they will not end successfully  as Tehran is expected to create more  impediments and waste more time in order to further enrich uranium so that it reaches the level of producing a nuclear bomb.  If the political system manages to cross the nuclear threshold, its popular legitimacy will grow.  The system will have a stronger grip over power and eliminate the opportunities available to those wanting to liberalize  Iran\u2019s economy and society. Possessing a nuclear bomb will also help Iran achieve its  ambitions of regional  leadership; making  it the most potent and prominent power in the Islamic world and a \u201cdominant regional power.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    It seems that Iranian leaders believe that possessing  nuclear weapons  will halt  Washington from resisting  Tehran\u2019s internal and external policies. The United States, at this point in time, will not be willing to confront the nuclear-weapon state: Iran.  This is similar to Washington\u2019s position on North Korea; the United States is seemingly not prepared yet to confront it. The Iranian political system succeeded in mobilizing popular support for its  high-cost civilian nuclear program and promoted it as a source of national pride and a sign of military development. President Raisi on August 5, 2021 said, \u201cThe sanctions against Iran must be lifted\u2026 and we will support any diplomatic initiative that helps achieve this goal.\u201d[8]<\/a> However, Iran\u2019s nuclear archive seized by Israel and confirmed by former President Rouhani clearly shows the country\u2019s insistence on developing nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

     We cannot believe Iran\u2019s claims that it does not intend to develop nuclear weapons. If Tehran is truly willing not to do so, the government could have adopted alternatives with much less cost to raise  its enrichment capacity. Moreover, it  could have established civilian nuclear programs to produce electricity by using imported fuel, an alternative that has always been on the table and always rejected by Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Iran has developed its nuclear capacity to an extent that meant  that international efforts to halt it turned out to be fruitless. It is not easy now for Iran to give up on the nuclear achievements that it has secured   over the three years since  Washington\u2019s withdrawal from the nuclear deal. Iran feels that it does not have to comply with the deal\u2019s commitments anymore. This raised the concerns of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). \u201cWe have a country that has a very developed and ambitious nuclear program which is enriching at very high levels \u2026 very close to weapons grade,\u201d IAEA Director Rafael Grossi said.[9]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Iran had declared that it  would reduce its commitments stipulated under  the 2015 nuclear deal. Its enrichment level now exceeds the 3.67 percent limit  set by the nuclear deal, and it breaches  the 300-kilogram limit. Iran also installed more advanced centrifuges, especially in Natanz nuclear  facility where an  explosion occurred recently. \u201cOn 14 August 2021, the Agency verified … that Iran had used 257 grams of uranium enriched up to 20 percent U-235 in the form of UF4 (uranium tetrafluoride) to produce 200 grams of uranium metal enriched up to 20 percent U-235,\u201d stated the IAEA.[10]<\/a>   The Iranian government made further breaches; it declared on June 15 that  it had produced 6.5 kilograms of uranium enriched  up to 60 percent purity.[11]<\/a> This development means that Iran has acquired the necessary knowledge and material to produce a nuclear bomb.  It is no longer difficult for Tehran to increase uranium enrichment up to 90 percent; the grade needed to build  a nuclear bomb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    According to the IAEA quarterly report, Iran\u2019s total stockpile of enriched uranium as of February 16 was nearly 3 tons, up from 2.4 tons in November, exceeding the limit designated in the 2015 nuclear deal; 202.8 kilograms.[12]<\/a> Six months after the publication of the IAEA report, Iran\u2019s uranium stockpile stands around 4 tons, the amount needed to produce a nuclear bomb. This explains why some American reports confirm that Iran, within less than one year, can produce a nuclear bomb if it continues  to develop centrifuges and produce  enriched uranium.  Iran has repeatedly confirmed its  advancement in its nuclear program in recent months, this is probably an Iranian claim  to use as leverage  against the Biden administration \u2014   to eventually mitigate sanctions  in return for   limiting its nuclear activities. However, some experts say that the real  quantity of Iran\u2019s enriched uranium  is much higher than the announced  figure.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    It is likely that Iran may undertake further steps to possess nuclear weapons.  The IAEA only accessed Iran\u2019s  nuclear data  since June 24, 2021;  it did not access its data since February 2021. At the time, Iran managed to limit the access of the UN watchdog\u2019s inspectors to the Natanz nuclear facility in July 2021. It started producing uranium metal exceeding 20 percent and installed more sophisticated centrifuges. The Iranian Parliament tightened measures related to implementing  its bill entitled \u201cStrategic Action Plan to Lift Sanctions and Protect the Iranian Nation\u2019s Interest,\u201d which was passed on December 2020. The bill aimed to speed up the country\u2019s uranium enrichment and limit  IAEA inspections.[13]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The United States, in the Vienna nuclear talks, adopted an escalatory  policy. It did not announce all of its conditions  to avoid closing the door on negotiations. In the sixth round of the talks, the US vision became completely clear. Iran on August 2, 2021, disclosed the US conditions, which included the inclusion of other files in order to reach a new agreement.   The other files included Iran\u2019s expansionist activities such as its intervention in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen and  its ballistic missile program. In addition, the United States wanted to maintain the arms embargo on Iran and amend the existing nuclear text. These conditions meant that Washington  sought to forge a new nuclear deal, which Iran absolutely rejected.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Further, not only has Washington  kept in place the  sanctions  imposed by the Trump administration but it has also  imposed new ones. In response to Iran\u2019s attacks on US troops in Syria and Iraq, Washington adopted military deterrence. It also seriously endeavors to rebuild a transatlantic consensus, and to cooperate with some countries in the region, against Iran. This was apparent in Washington\u2019s response to Iran\u2019s attack on MT Mercer Street, an Israeli tanker.  \u201cWe join our partners and allies in our strong condemnation of the attack against the Mercer Street, a commercial ship that was peacefully transiting through the north Arabian Sea in international waters,\u201d Antony Blinken said in a press statement. He further confirmed that the United States was  confident of Iran\u2019s involvement in the attack, adding that Washington was  working with its partners for \u201can appropriate response.\u201d[14]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    With Raisi now in power, it has become quite unlikely Iran and Western countries will be able to reach an agreement in regard to the 2015 nuclear deal because  Tehran has  already crossed the limit needed to develop nuclear weapons. Therefore, it will not allow  its new activities to be stopped and its recently developed capacity following the US withdrawal from the deal. The United States will not agree to lift all sanctions, which Iran demands  as a precondition   for the talks. As a result,  Washington is not interested anymore in  the ongoing talks with Iran.  Tehran will stay committed to its conditions, continue its policy of procrastination while making use of time to advance its nuclear capacity; the world may be shocked by Iran  manufacturing its first nuclear bomb. If they reach an agreement, it will be fragile. By concluding a deal, the US president meets his campaign promise but the agreement will not be able to curb Iran\u2019s ambitions to acquire nuclear weapons and develop its ballistic missile program, neither can it halt  its expansionist projects in the region.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Iran\u2019s stubbornness is evident; it refused to revive the nuclear deal, was inflexible in the nuclear talks, and laid down conditions that will not be accepted by the international community. By analyzing the recent remarks of Iranian officials, it becomes apparent that the new Iranian president defended  what he called the \u201ceconomy of resistance\u201d as he aims to make the Iranian economy more resilient against shocks. This concept is based on the claim that the country does not need trade openness with the world. Iran\u2019s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei echoed this approach when meeting with former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and his cabinet. He argued that the policy of openness adopted by the Rouhani government towards the West, particularly, the United States confirmed \u201ctrust in the West is useless.\u201d He expressed a pessimistic view in regard to reviving the nuclear deal in light of the US conditions related to  Tehran\u2019s ballistic missile program. The supreme leader  scathingly criticized Rouhani\u2019s negotiation policy and his government betting on the West, confirming that any negotiations with Washington  are currently impossible.[15]<\/a> This Iranian stance has not come about  haphazardly, it has been deliberately planned by the supreme leader. As long as  Iran\u2019s policy is under the grip of the current \u201chardline\u201d authority, it is unlikely that  its \u201chardline\u201d  position on returning to the nuclear talks   with specific conditions is merely symbolic. Iran is adopting a policy of brinkmanship to revive the nuclear deal and reap strategic gains while avoiding making any integral concessions, especially  regarding US conditions about its ballistic missile program and regional influence. Practically speaking, the Iranian political system has been prepared to face a new phase of resistance and confrontation; the gradual US withdrawal from the region has helped Iran in this matter.  The main concern here is that Iran will be tempted to move further forward in its secret nuclear program and cross the nuclear threshold to keep in place  the current political system.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

     3-The Expansion of the \u201cShadow War\u201d Between Israel and Iran<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The third indicator that forebodes Iran will witness a greater dark period is the rising escalation in the so-called  shadow war<\/em> between Iran and Israel. The long-running shadow war has been instigated from the relentless conflict between Israel and Iran; a war that  takes place on all fronts: sea, air, cyberspace, and sometimes on the ground. Israel targeted tankers smuggling oil from Iran to Syria, part of its sale profits were sent to Hezbollah. The sea attacks are only part of a much broader Israeli military action. Israel has launched several attacks against Iranian targets, including sites of Iranian proxies: Hezbollah and other Shiite militias.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    It is widely believed that Israel is behind the assassination of five Iranian nuclear scientists since 2010 and the attacks on nuclear sites inside Iranian territory. Iran held Israel and the United States responsible for the assassination of scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in an ambush on the outskirts of the Iranian capital, Tehran,  October 2020. In another incident, Iran pointed the finger of blame at Israel for the explosion at the Natanz nuclear facility, Iran\u2019s largest uranium enrichment facility, causing  severe damage to centrifuges. Israel is convinced that Iran\u2019s nuclear program has a military dimension and this will enable Tehran to build a nuclear bomb;  an existential threat for the Israelis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Since Ibrahim Raisi was declared  the winner of  the election, the escalation between Iran and Israel has dominated the scene. An Israeli oil tanker was attacked off the coast of Oman at the end of July 2021, and Israel pointed the finger at Iran. This  incident also raised warnings that the United Kingdom, which lost a crew member in the attack, might be involved in any retaliatory action and could possibly join the United States, which established a naval force with its partners in 2019 to help protect sea lanes in the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    A week after the ship incident, officials in the Israeli Prime Minister\u2019s Office and the Defense Minister\u2019s Office held meetings on the attack with senior officials in the Biden administration. Meanwhile, the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs called on all UN Security Council members states to condemn the incident, and made it clear to them that Israel considered the attack to be very dangerous. Israel identified Iran  as the perpetrator and argued that the incident   was a serious threat to the security of international shipping.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Iran activated its proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah.   The Israeli army and Hezbollah exchanged cross-border fire in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah   announced for the first time since the last military escalation in 2019 that it targeted Israeli sites.  And it was also the first time since 2014 that southern Lebanon  has witnessed an Israeli air attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The accelerating tensions between Iran and Israel prompted Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz, in his speech to the Knesset, to state that he would not rule out the possibility that Israel might take military action against Iran, even if unilaterally, and Gantz warned that there were \u201chundreds of Iranian UAVs in Iran, Yemen, Iraq and other countries last year [\u2026] There have been no less than five  Iranian attacks on international ships, some using UAVs manufactured by Iran.\u201d[16]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz in early August during his meetings with the  ambassadors of  UN Security Council member states, claimed that Iran needs 10 weeks to obtain  the materials needed to  make a nuclear weapon. Both Gantz and Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid warned the United States that Iran is  approaching the nuclear threshold.[17]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Given this escalation between Iran and Israel, US Central Intelligence Agency Director  William Burns visited Israel. As some sources say, he came to remind Israel of the interests  and policies of its ally, Washington, and to see if Israel is fully aware and in agreement with the US position in regard to Iran\u2019s nuclear advancement.  In addition, he wanted to acknowledge Israel\u2019s deep reservations on a new nuclear deal with Iran. It is possible that Burns came to warn Israel to be cautious and to display restraint in its public discourse, and to de-escalate its naval conflict with Iran, at least for the time being.[18]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Amid the rising tensions between Iran and Israel, the new Israeli Prime Minister, Naftali Bennett, visited Washington and met with President Biden. Bennett warned the Americans of the consequences of the new nuclear deal, especially in light of Iran\u2019s progress in advancing its nuclear capabilities. \u201c[We will] deal with many fronts, especially the Iranian front, and especially the jump in the Iranian nuclear program over the past two or three years. In particular, we will discuss the plan to block this program,\u201d Bennett said during the meeting. According to the Prime Minister\u2019s Office, he added that talks would also focus on \u201cseveral actions to strengthen Israeli military superiority.\u201d [19]<\/a> It seems that Washington is ready to support Israel, and  it may provide the Israeli army with the necessary military technology to inflict  severe damage on Iran\u2019s nuclear potential,  or at least deter Iran so that it  returns to the nuclear agreement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The most significant statement was Biden\u2019s warning to Iran, \u201cWe\u2019re putting diplomacy first and we\u2019ll see where that takes us. But if diplomacy fails, we\u2019re ready to turn to other options.\u201d[20]<\/a> Biden\u2019s statement was strongly condemned by the Iranian government, especially by the supreme leader, who described the Biden administration as a \u201cpredatory wolf,\u201d and said it was no less abrasive  than the Trump administration.[21]<\/a> This escalation indicates that the long-simmering tensions  between Iran and the United States and its ally Israel   are most likely to mount further in the future. It is also possible that US-Israeli military coordination will increase to target  Iranian nuclear facilities  if efforts to revive the agreement fail.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In the same vein, American expert Dennis Ross,  the US point man for the Middle East peace process in both the George H. W. Bush and  Clinton administrations,  said to  Bloomberg<\/em> that the Biden administration, according to the demands of some in Congress, should consider providing Israel with missiles such as \u201cThe GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator,\u201d a 30,000 pound mountain penetrator. This is a weapon that could be used to destroy Iran\u2019s underground enrichment facility at Fordow and other fortified nuclear sites. The willingness to provide  Israel with such a terrifying weapon and the use of a B2 bomber to deliver it will send a strong message to the Iranians. In fact, providing Israel with the GBU-57 missile might be the best incentive for Iran to negotiate a \u201clonger and stronger\u201d nuclear deal. \u201cOnly then might the regime accept that the United States is serious about preventing Iran from acquiring a threshold status \u2014 and that Iran risks its entire nuclear infrastructure in the absence of an agreement. Under such circumstances, \u201cIran\u2019s leaders have an incentive to agree  something now which the U.S. and Israel might otherwise oppose.\u201d Dennis Ross added.[22]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    We accordingly conclude that given the supreme leader\u2019s and Raisi\u2019s continuous  attempts to impede the nuclear talks to facilitate Tehran\u2019s quest to reach the nuclear threshold, it is possible that the United States  will allow Israel to launch preemptive air strikes  to destroy Iran\u2019s uranium enrichment facilities or inflict  severe damage  on these facilities. This might hold Iran back from achieving its goals for many years to come. Thus,   we are quite likely to witness in the coming months a noticeable rise in tensions between Tel Aviv and Tehran. As a result,  we are expected to witness uncontrollable escalation spirals that might lead to  a  serious crisis if either side makes a  single  mistake. Without a doubt, it  is a turbulent start for Raisi\u2019s presidency, opening the door  for more tensions and the likelihood of military responses from Tehran on the one side and Israel and its Western allies and the United States on the other side, given the   growing  fear that the region will be driven by the logic of military warfare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    4- The Challenges of Diplomatic Normalization With Saudi Arabia<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Tehran\u2019s relationship with its great neighbor Saudi Arabia is one of the biggest challenges facing  Iranian foreign policy under Raisi for the coming years. Historically, the conflict between Riyadh and Tehran has gone through many ups and downs.   Saudi Arabia severed its diplomatic relations with Tehran following the 2016 attack on the Saudi embassy by an Iranian mob. Consequently, dialogue and negotiation initiatives have been blocked.  However, some regional factors raise the possibility that the two parties will  sit at the negotiating table to reduce tensions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Some Iranian politicians realize that a good relationship with Saudi Arabia will impact  Iran\u2019s communication with other Arab and Islamic countries, and  its problems, even with the international community,  will be easier to resolve  via a good relationship with Riyadh, which has influence and political weight in international decision-making centers. The Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, said in a television interview, \u201cAt the end of the day, Iran is a neighboring country. All we ask for is to have a good and distinguished relationship with Iran [\u2026] to drive prosperity and growth in the region and the entire world.\u201d Yet he pointed out to thorny issues hindering reaching this end: Iran\u2019s nuclear and ballistic missile programs and proxy militias in some countries in the region.[23]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Currently, Saudi Arabia is holding talks with Iran mediated by Iraq. Although the two parties have welcomed the talks,  they seem thorny and may not make any progress, at least in the coming period. Saudi Arabia demands that Iran  must stop supporting its proxy wars in Arab countries, especially support for the Houthis in Yemen and  supplying them with missiles and drones \u2014 which have been targeting Saudi territory at an increasing pace. In addition,  Iran must comply with its obligations under  the nuclear deal,  and  halt its  missile program, which is the greatest external threat to the national security of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. However, the Iranian government, apparently, does not intend to make any concessions related to Saudi demands   although Iranian officials have made political remarks, affirming their country\u2019s  willingness to   establish good relations with Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Rouhani himself clearly expressed his country\u2019s willingness to establish amicable relations with Saudi Arabia, accusing some internal parties of being responsible for deteriorating relations with Riyadh. \u201cMay God does not forgive those who did not allow us to have good relations with some neighbors. Some groups engaged \u201cin childish and stupid\u201d actions and \u201cattacked diplomatic missions. If these actions had not taken place we would be in a better situation,\u201d Rouhani said. [24]<\/sup><\/a> President Raisi echoed Rouhani\u2019s remarks saying,  \u201cstrengthening and building comprehensive relations with neighboring countries is one of the priorities of the government that we will form,\u201d considering that \u201csuch relations serve both Iran and its neighboring countries as well.\u201d[25]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Saudi Arabia is used to such positive remarks from all Iranian presidents but they do not lead to concrete results. This is because there is a lack of political will on behalf of the   supreme leader to put words into practice via respecting the rights of neighbors and establishing stability in the region.  Although the main thorny issue between Riyadh and Tehran will be discussing the Yemeni crisis, more comprehensive files will determine the chances of  rapprochement, dialogue and future relations.  Will the Iranian government continue with its longstanding policy?  Or will it adopt a new position?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In fact, Tehran will continue to negotiate tactically as it did before, but not to reach strategic solutions to resolve   all outstanding problems. Tehran has always  impeded possibilities for dialogue in order to gain more time and it has shown no real intention to reach a comprehensive peace.  The Iranian government, especially in the  current stage which is witnessing the  domination of  the \u201chardliners \u201d over all state apparatuses,  will remain faithful to the principles of the revolution, and the Iranian Constitution. In addition, it will embrace  comprehensive strategic plans such as the Theory of Umm al-Qura.  There is a protracted crisis regarding  religious  representation between Tehran and Riyadh. Iran is seeking to emerge from this crisis as an Islamic model to be emulated. Iran always wants to go against logic and time, and to wrest the religious position from Riyadh, which explains  its constant attacks  against Saudi Arabia during the Hajj season and the politicization of religious rituals. There is also the problem of  Iran\u2019s ideological project in the region; it contains, at its heart, the export of the revolution and using  Shiites as a tool of pressure which must  be curbed and discussed until a real stability of relations is guaranteed. In light of Iran\u2019s ideological project, dialogue between the two countries will not lead to comprehensive rapprochement, nor to drastic solutions to  address complex strategic dilemmas, which have emerged in various fields.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Conclusion <\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    All the previously discussed indicators   show that Iranian foreign policy under the new government of President Ebrahim Raisi will adopt  a \u201chardline\u201d approach that will be enhanced by the support of the supreme leader himself who oversees the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, which is the pivotal entity in shaping strategic defense and security policies. Therefore, the international community, the region, and the Gulf countries neighboring Iran will never see Tehran adopting moderation in its political and security behavior nor constructive and pragmatic foreign and diplomatic interactions  at least during   Raisi\u2019s term  in office \u2014 which may extend to another presidential term. All parties are expected to face  difficult years,  through which they will focus predominantly on crisis management rather than on  launching dialogue and forging rapprochement. Thus, the Arab countries, the Gulf states in particular, need to adopt a different approach towards Iran\u2019s hegemonic tendencies. This is through using all means available based on comprehensive approaches that are capable  of triggering  Iran\u2019s political awareness and making  it realize its potential losses and gains  in case  it continues to adopt its revolutionary ideology,   promote a military confrontational approach,  mobilize sectarian  Velayat-e Faqih supporters, and  operate  beyond the framework of international legitimacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n\n\n\n

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    [2]<\/a> \u201cIran\u2019s Raisi Inaugurated Vowing To Fight \u2018Tyrannical\u2019 U.S. Sanctions,\u201d Radio Farda<\/em>, August 3, 2021, accessed September 8, 2021, https:\/\/bit.ly\/3ngiGhc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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    [25]<\/a> \u201cRaisi: \u2018Strengthening Relations with Neighboring Countries Is a Priority,\u2019\u201d A<\/u>l-Mayadeen<\/em>,  July 10, 2021, accessed September 12, 2021, https:\/\/bit.ly\/2YJDLGB<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Introduction Ebrahim Raisi took office amid internal, and external crises and challenges, considered the most difficult since the 1979 revolution. The new Iranian president is facing  mushrooming economic and diplomatic crises along with social woes. Regional  countries,  particularly the Gulf states, hope that the new president will start a fresh chapter of regional relations based […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":256,"featured_media":9676,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[1269,5872,1659,162,1388,674,503,465,12,355,69],"class_list":["post-9675","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-centre-for-researches-and-studies","tag-ali-larijani","tag-amia","tag-ebrahim-raisi","tag-economic","tag-foreign-policy","tag-ghalibaf","tag-hezbollah","tag-hormuz","tag-iran","tag-irgc","tag-united-states"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9675","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/256"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9675"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9675\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9720,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9675\/revisions\/9720"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9676"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9675"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9675"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rasanah-iiis.org\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9675"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}