The International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah) has issued the Iran Case File (ICF) for June 2023. The file provides readers in general and researchers in particular with an in-depth analysis and overview of Iran’s variant interactions and affairs. The file is divided into two main parts: Internal Affairs and External Affairs (regional and international affairs).
The Internal Affairs section discusses five main files. The Political File analyzes in detail the sudden change of venue of the press conference with the foreign ministers of Iran and Saudi Arabia in Tehran, which presented an invaluable opportunity for the “reformists” to criticize their political opponents from the “conservative” current. It also details the attempts by the “conservatives” to blame the “reformists” for masterminding the incident.
The Economic File explores the government’s glaringly inconsistent economic statistics, and the internal pressures facing Iranian officials to improve perceptions regarding the government’s economic performance.
The Military File discusses two issues, the European project to maintain the sanctions imposed on Iran’s ballistic missile program and the continuation of Russian-Iranian military cooperation.
The Social File explains the position of the Iranian government regarding the increasing number of abortions in Iran as well as the conditions for legal abortions and the implications for Iranian society.
The Ideological File deals with the attempts of the religious and hawza elites to reform the Iranian governing system by condemning poverty, injustice and discrimination, as well as the continuous criticism expressed by one of the most prominent Sunni jurists in Iran, Maulvi Abdul Hamid, and his defense of the oppressed people in Iran.
The External Affairs section includes Iranian relations and interactions with Arab and international milieus. On the Arab level, Gulf-Iranian relations witnessed major developments, exemplified by the visit of the Saudi foreign minister to Iran and the state of confusion and controversy that Iran witnessed against the backdrop of changing the location of the joint press conference. Regarding Iranian interactions with Iraq, the emergence of new front groups loyal to Iran in the Iraqi arena, and the timing and objectives of establishing these new groups are analyzed. On Syria, the report addresses the activity of the Russian Wagner Group in Syria, the repercussions of the Wagner rebellion on the Syrian arena, as well as Iran-Russia relations in Syria after the Wagner crisis.
Concerning Yemen, the formation of the Hadramout National Council was the most prominent political event during June 2023. The report also discusses its composition, structure and political objectives.
On the international level, the report addresses the possibility of holding a new round of indirect talks between Iran and the United States after a series of regional mediations, most notably the Omani mediation. It also discusses the two parties continuing their pressure on each other and their manipulation of various levers of influence. With regard to Iranian interactions with Europe, the report deals with the Albanian police raid on the camp of the People’s Mujahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI) near the capital Tirana, and its delivery of sensitive information to Iran, as well as the decline in Albanian and US support for the Iranian opposition.
