As regional tensions continue to escalate amid increasing Israeli attacks in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Beirut and Damascus in an attempt to demonstrate Iran’s unwavering support and solidarity with its regional allies. During his visit to Syria, he met Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Foreign Minister Bassam al-Sabbagh and Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali. During his visit to Lebanon, he met Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and other top government officials. The visits were part of Iran’s wider efforts to reach out to regional players and achieve consensus to de-escalate tensions that Tehran fears could severely affect its regional interests as well as threaten its stability.
Iran understands the limitations of the Lebanese government in responding to the Israeli aggression in southern Lebanon. As the Lebanese Armed Forces are poorly trained and face a severe resource deficit, Hezbollah continues to have the upper hand when it comes to countering Israel in southern Lebanon, reinforcing Iran’s dependence on Hezbollah. However, with recent setbacks faced by Hezbollah, its ability to deter and ensure stability in southern Lebanon is questioned, especially as civilian casualties continue to increase. As per the reports of the Lebanese Health Ministry, the death toll from Israeli assaults since October 8, 2023 has reached 2141, with over 10,099 injured.
During his recent visit, Araghchi said that Tehran supports efforts for a ceasefire in Lebanon on the condition that it is supported by Hezbollah and simultaneous with a truce in Gaza. His remarks reflect the urgency and need for Iran to avoid the possibility of a wider war especially as Hezbollah and Hamas in recent months have faced severe losses, leaving both severely weakened. The security situation is expected to deteriorate further as the Israeli military has launched a ground offensive into southern Lebanon. Meanwhile, Israel also has increased attacks in Syria and raided a villa in Damascus which as per some sources belongs to the brother of Bashar al-Assad and the commander of the Syrian Army’s elite 4th Armored Division, Mahar al-Assad.
Israel is exploiting this situation to intensify attacks and continue targeting Iranian proxies which could escalate the situation in Syria as well. Israel’s aim is to drag Iran into a wider war which would then compel the United States to intervene — a situation that Iran is concerned about especially as it does not have the appetite for a costly war given its current dire economic circumstances. Hence, Iranian responses have emphasized caution and restraint, aiming to project Iran as a responsible actor to the international community. In a recent interview, the former Iranian Foreign Minister and the current Vice President for Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif said, “Iran has reserved the right to respond at a time of its choosing, and we haven’t given up that right. However, we have exercised a great deal of restraint.” Iran’s retaliation so far has been largely symbolic; however, if tensions continue to escalate, the future trajectory of the conflict remains uncertain.
In response to questions and doubts, the visits were also intended to reinforce the image of Iran as the leader of regional resistance forces. The fulcrum of Iran’s foreign policy has always been to strengthen the “Axis of Resistance” by providing economic, political and military support to its regional proxies and allies. On the other hand, Israel has always sought a window of opportunity to strike at the capabilities of Iran’s regional proxies to decimate their command-and-control structure — as evident in the ongoing Israeli attacks against Hezbollah and Hamas. The pager attacks on Hezbollah exposed the extent of Israel’s infiltration, highlighting how Israeli intelligence agencies, using a combination of human intelligence and electronic intelligence, were able to breach Hezbollah’s network despite its extensive security measures.
Against the backdrop of the regional security situation becoming increasingly unstable and unpredictable, Iran has signaled a desire to de-escalate tensions rather than pursue a broader regional war; Iran is focused on diplomatic outreach to secure political support and avoid escalation. However, within Iran, there are growing calls for the militarization of the state and a revision of the nuclear doctrine, both of which could prove to be counterproductive to Iran’s quest to de-escalate and win the backing of neighboring countries in the context of its conflict with Israel.
