Abstract
This study examines the changes in Israeli-Iranian deterrence strategies following the 12-Day War, which erupted on June 13, 2025, and their impact on regional security. The region was already grappling with numerous security challenges following Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on October 7, 2023, which Israel exploited not only to retaliate against Hamas but also to weaken the Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance.” Israel succeeded in demolishing the Gaza Strip and curbing Hezbollah’s capabilities through a truce that temporarily removed it from the conflict, while the fall of the Assad regime in Syria further bolstered Israel’s dominance. Meanwhile, the Houthis continued their threats against Israel. The Israeli-Iranian confrontation (June 2025) revealed shifts in deterrence strategies, notably a transition from covert, indirect methods to overt, direct engagement, with both sides demonstrating the ability to penetrate each other’s territory and implement deterrence in practice. The study concludes that these shifts in deterrence have inflicted significant damage on regional security, encouraging states to pursue deterrent weapons to safeguard their threatened security. Furthermore, these changes have directly threatened Gulf security, violated Qatar’s national sovereignty and endangered maritime corridors and global energy security.
