Abstract
This research paper elucidates the interactions and strategic motivations that prompted both the United States and Iran to engage in nuclear negotiations mediated by Oman following the return of US President Donald Trump to the White House in early 2025. The study argues that developments following October 7, including the decline of Iranian geopolitical influence in the Middle East and the weakening of its network of allies (the “Axis of Resistance”) due to military confrontations with Israel, were influential factors in the negotiations. It further contends that there is a reciprocal relationship between this decline in geopolitical influence and the outbreak of the 12-Day War between Israel and Iran, which impacted the course of the Oman-mediated negotiations and the future of US-Iran talks. In other words, there is an assumption that the weakening of the “Axis of Resistance” influenced negotiations before the 12-Day War, just as it contributed to the war’s outbreak, which has redefined and will continue to influence the nuclear talks between Iran and the United States. The study concludes that future negotiations under the Trump administration are anticipated but will be contingent on US conditions; otherwise, Iran faces the prospect of a new military confrontation amid diminished leverage in terms of its regional and nuclear bargaining chips.
