The International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah) has released its 10th Annual Strategic Report (ASR) for 2025-2026 under the title “Alliances of Necessity and Peace Through Strength.” Extending across 284 pages, the report is the latest edition in a flagship series first launched in December 2016. It is meticulously researched, grounded in extensive data and statistics, and supported by tables, charts, maps and visual illustrations. Through systematic monitoring, analytical assessment, trend extrapolation and forward-looking projections through 2026, the ASR seeks to anticipate major shifts and understand their likely trajectories. This year’s edition is particularly notable for its expanded analytical breadth, reflecting a wider thematic scope and a more comprehensive engagement with global and regional issues. The ASR is divided into four core parts: “Global Dynamics,” “Regional Dynamics,” “Iran Overview” and “Saudi Arabia in Review.”
On the international front, the ASR frames 2025 as a year of profound global turning points, most prominently marked by Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency. This development has reshaped domestic political dynamics in the United States and influenced relations among major powers, while also affecting global economic, security and cultural trends. The analysis addresses a range of key issues, including the second Trump administration and its unconventional policy trajectories; calibrated US-China escalation and its implications for the Indo-Pacific; efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war amid persistent risks of widening confrontation; developments in the global economy and future outlooks; international competition in non-traditional and emerging fields; and the evolving role of religious institutions and ideological movements between stagnation and transformation.
At the regional level, the ASR depicts 2025 as a period of heightened geopolitical tensions and accelerating conflicts, recalling the anxiety-filled atmospheres that historically preceded major wars. Diplomatic pathways narrowed as several regional actors increasingly turned to military tools to advance geopolitical objectives, even where ceasefire agreements formally existed. At the same time, influential regional and international players sought to contain crises and reduce escalation to avert broader threats to regional and global security. Within this context, the report examines the Gulf’s centrality in regional and international equations; the revival of Israel’s expansionist project in the Middle East; Türkiye’s evolving geopolitical positioning across multiple theaters; Africa’s struggle between development ambitions and persistent internal conflicts; shifting dynamics in the Indo-Pakistani rivalry and the future of ceasefire arrangements; and the Azerbaijani-Armenian peace process and its role in reshaping the geopolitical map of the South Caucasus.
The third part, “Iran Overview,” provides an in-depth analysis of developments inside Iran during 2025, highlighting events that affected political, economic, social, military and ideological spheres alike. It underscores the unprecedented challenges facing Iran’s relations with its Arab neighbors, particularly in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. Central themes include the war and debates over comprehensive regime reform; trends and pressures within the Iranian economy; intellectual and religious reassessments; the impact of conflict on the expansion of security and military institutions; Iranian society and the resurgence of nationalist discourse alongside the limits of internal cohesion; the war’s implications for Gulf-Iran relations; the Houthis as an active Iranian lever in Red Sea security; Tehran’s efforts to preserve influence in Iraq; Iran’s dilemma regarding Hezbollah’s weapons; the strengthening of Iranian-Pakistani relations following the 12-Day War; the fragility of the Israel-Iran ceasefire; the complex tests confronting Russian and Chinese relations with Iran; Europe’s role in reviving UN sanctions; and Iran’s strategic options following US strikes on its nuclear facilities.
The final part focuses on Saudi Arabia’s continued ascendance amid regional turmoil. It presents the kingdom’s policies during the reporting year as part of a coherent national trajectory that aligns internal transformation with regional and international responsibilities. According to the report, national, economic and institutional reforms have strengthened state cohesion and enhanced Saudi Arabia’s capacity to confront challenges, manage its regional environment and engage the international system from a position of greater independence and balance. This Saudi experience in 2025 is examined through four main themes: domestic policies and structural transformation within the framework of the comprehensive development vision; the kingdom’s role in the Arab and regional arenas and its management of crises and balances; partnerships and strategic positioning amid rapid global change; and the strategic challenges informing Saudi policy.
