The International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah) has published its January 2026 Iran Case File (ICF), offering a detailed assessment for both the general public and researchers. The monthly report seeks to assess Iran’s evolving conditions and interactions, structured across three sections: domestic developments, regional interactions and Iran’s relations with international powers.
Domestically, January saw notable economic, military, social and ideological developments. Economically, protests impacted the broader economy, driving inflation to 60% amid internet shutdowns and a worsening exchange rate. Militarily, Iran proposed selling weapons — including ballistic missiles, drones and warships — to foreign governments in exchange for cryptocurrency. Socially, structural changes have pushed the middle class toward poverty. Ideologically, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s appearance in Qom conveyed multiple messages to domestic audiences and religious authorities, coinciding with US threats of strikes or assassination.
Iran’s interactions across the Arab and regional spheres were marked by key developments in Iraq and Israel. In Iraq, US Special Envoy Mark Savaya navigated complex challenges amid delays in forming a new government following President Donald Trump’s veto of Nouri al-Maliki. In Israel, Tel Aviv’s support for protests, alongside US involvement, enabled the Iranian establishment to justify a security-based crackdown while mobilizing its popular base.
Internationally, tensions between Iran and the United States intensified. US threats of military action and potential regime change underscored Tehran’s refusal to comply with conditions extending beyond the nuclear agreement, signaling a new phase of escalation.
