Iran’s Chabahar port has successfully connected Afghanistan to the Arabian Sea. The Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani, traveled with a convoy of 23 trucks loaded with cargo weighing 570 tons to the border city of Zarang where he hailed the “healthy cooperation between India, Iran, and Afghanistan.” He sent a message to Pakistan, a neighbor and his country’s largest trading partner, when he said, “Afghanistan is not landlocked anymore.”
In October 2017, New Delhi shipped 1.1 million tons of wheat to Kabul via Chabahar port, which is managed by India Ports Global Limited. The Modi government accomplished an incredible feat by convincing the Trump administration to exempt from US sanctions Chabahar port and India’s oil imports from Iran. The exemption expires in April unless renewed by the United States for another period of three or six months.
New Delhi can succeed in winning the approval of US President Donald Trump to extend its exemption for three reasons. First, the United States’ objective is to counter China’s outreach to the Arabian Sea through Beijing’s development of Pakistan’s Gwadar port and Chabahar port fits nicely into realizing this objective. Second, the Trump administration wants to isolate Pakistan and by strengthening economic ties between New Delhi and Kabul, it will lower Afghanistan’s economic dependence on Islamabad. Third, India will be helping to build Afghanistan’s economy as well as connecting Kabul to the region and this will naturally lower the war-torn country’s reliance on the United States, with Washington itself overstretched financially across the world. Despite these reasons, it is uncertain whether India will get another exemption from the United States vis a vis Iran. Some US officials have spoken about reducing the exemption period to three months instead of six months, whereas others are totally against any extension.
At first sight, the Kabul-Chabahar route leaves much to be desired. A key challenge for Afghan traders is their inability to work with Iranian banks, as they are blacklisted and traders risk the imposition of US sanctions if they deal with them. The other challenges are more logistical and bureaucratic, as well as security oriented. The security woes alone can be nightmarish not just due to Afghanistan’s domestic circumstances but equally due to Iran’s. While the talks between the US and the Taliban are ongoing, there exists no ceasefire on the ground. With trade activity picking up, saboteurs won’t ignore foreign laborers as well as the haulage of goods worth millions of dollars. Additionally, the escalating activity of Baloch militants in Iran’s Sistan-Balochistan province provides a stern warning to those using this trade route. The marginally guarded Afghan-Iran frontier remains a key channel for goods, drugs and weapons to be smuggled as well as for the movement of militants.
India has built the road to Zaranj which will require regular maintenance because of heavy traffic and the harsh climate to which the region is subject. The bridge connecting Iran and Afghanistan is not fit for heavy traffic and is also too narrow. The Ghani government has not kept up its pledge for removing the logistical bottleneck on the Zaranj-Delaram highway.
Corruption is reportedly rampant at the crossing point, promoting illicit businesses and undermining the core purpose of boosting Afghanistan’s trade. There is no high-tech infrastructure along this route, allowing for the possibility of lucrative narcotic and weapon smuggling. Also, inflated visa fees and the unavailability of lodging facilities or fuel stations may add to the failure of trade prospects. For truck drivers, the route is far more cumbersome than the historic alternative to Pakistan via Torkhum and Chaman. Recently, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan directed his respective institutions to take the necessary steps for round-the-clock operability of border crossings with Afghanistan. Due to border tensions, the trade route had to once be closed for 50 days. Not only did traders from both sides suffer, consumers in Afghanistan also faced a shortage of supplies. Iran has so far resisted the Afghan demand to keep the crossing open for 24 hours a day, seven days a week.
Nonetheless, Afghanistan also remains connected to Iran, China, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan via railroad. Except in the case of sanctions-marred Iran, the rail link can become an extremely vital logistical artery with the Central Asian countries. Regardless of President Trump’s curbs on Iran, India has been working on a $1.6 billion railway track connecting Zahedan to Chabahar. Meanwhile, China has been proactively working to accomplish its Gwadar-Kashgar road and railway link in lieu of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
India’s exemption from US sanctions against Iran has not really translated into any relief for Afghanistan except for India benefitting by encircling Pakistan and constraining China from investing in Iran. India-Iran-Afghanistan trade via Chabahar will face serious challenges of high costs as well as an irregularity in the value and frequency of shipments. Meanwhile, the shorter and more secure Gwadar route will not only feature Pakistan’s involvement but also China’s, which exercises far more significant leverage over Afghanistan than India due to its heavy investment and non-interventionist policy. After a possible US-Taliban deal and the upcoming Afghan elections, Kabul can use Beijing as a facilitator vis-a-vis Islamabad to iron out bilateral differences and longstanding concerns with its neighbor.
Notwithstanding strained US-Iran relations and the hefty Chinese and Gulf investment in Gwadar as well as in CPEC, the trilateral trade corridor carries colossal significance for its stakeholders. For India, Chabahar holds the prospect of extending into lucrative Central Asian markets. For Iran, Chabahar partially eliminates her economic isolation, while for Afghanistan the quest for an alternate link to coastal waters and the world is fulfilled through Chabahar.
