Since the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in 2021, tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan have escalated, marked by recurring border skirmishes. The 2640-kilometer-long porous Pakistan-Afghanistan border has historically been difficult to manage, making it a persistent flashpoint for security challenges and cross-border tensions. Recently, clashes have escalated with reports of repeated cross-border attacks. The recent escalations underscore the deep-rooted complexities in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, highlighting longstanding issues that have the potential to trigger low-intensity conflicts and further escalations.
The UN Security Council’s 35th Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team report revealed that the Afghan Taliban continues to provide financial, logistical and operational support to the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and the group has significantly increased its attacks against the Pakistani military in recent years. In March 2024, Pakistan launched airstrikes on TTP hideouts inside Afghanistan, which the Taliban government condemned as a violation of Afghanistan’s sovereignty. Similar strikes in December 2024 targeted TTP camps, reportedly causing collateral damage that triggered public outrage in Afghanistan. As per reports, in March 2025, Pakistan killed TTP militants attempting to infiltrate Pakistan’s North Waziristan region. Pakistan has intensified its counterterrorism operations across the Afghan border in recent months, and the latest flare-up must be viewed within this broader context. On October 9, TTP militants attacked Pakistani paramilitary troops, killing 11. Pakistan retaliated with airstrikes near Kabul and other areas targeting senior TTP figures, including its chief Noor Wali Mehsud. In response, Taliban forces fired on Pakistani border posts along the Durand Line, triggering heavy clashes and sporadic escalations. Pakistan’s military claimed to have killed over 200 Afghan fighters, while Afghanistan reported killing 58 Pakistani soldiers and wounding 30 others.
The roots of the current escalation are historical. The Taliban government views the Durand Line as an illegitimate and colonial construct that unjustly divides ethnic and tribal communities across the Afghanistan–Pakistan border. This view forms a core ideological convergence between the Afghan Taliban and the TTP, both of which reject the legitimacy of the border. This view was recently reflected in the statement given by the Taliban Deputy Interior Minister Nabi Omari, who said that the Durand Line between Afghanistan and Pakistan was imposed by force, and Afghanistan would seek to reclaim the usurped territories. Such rhetoric underscores that the border dispute is not merely a flared-up political disagreement but a longstanding structural issue with deep nationalist and ideological underpinnings. Consequently, recurring clashes are symptomatic of this unresolved historical grievance.
Both countries have their own political and strategic interests as well as long-term security considerations amid recent escalations. For Pakistan, the security calculus and regional geopolitical developments are deeply intertwined with its concerns over cross-border militancy and internal stability. Having recently been engaged in a conflict with India, Pakistan is operating in a tense security environment and on high alert along its eastern border. Any escalation along the western frontier with Afghanistan would therefore impose significant strain, compelling Islamabad to manage potential security threats on two fronts simultaneously. The border dispute is further complicated by deep ethnic and demographic interlinkages, particularly among the Pashtun populations on both sides of the Durand Line. The TTP’s ambitions to erode Islamabad’s authority in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan continue to be a major internal security threat for Pakistan.
In the current context, Pakistan perceives the improving ties between India and the Taliban government as a matter of growing concern. The recent escalations coincided with the Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s first official visit to India, during which India upgraded its technical mission to a full-fledged embassy in Kabul. These developments have been interpreted in Islamabad as part of New Delhi’s broader effort to expand its strategic footprint in Afghanistan and challenge Pakistan. Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif openly accused Kabul of conducting a “proxy war” for New Delhi.
The Taliban government is unwilling to leave Pakistan’s actions unanswered, as doing so would project an image of weakness and undermine its legitimacy. The Taliban’s hostility toward Pakistan has deepened in recent years, fueled by Islamabad’s increasing expulsion of Afghan refugees and migrants. The Taliban leadership, seeking to consolidate authority and project strength, views a strong response as essential to maintaining credibility and establishing deterrence. Moreover, the dynamics of Afghan politics often compel the Taliban government to frame its posture toward Pakistan as a matter of autonomy and national pride. This further increases the security dilemma, especially as Afghanistan’s retaliations are only adding to the heightened threat perceptions of Pakistan, which further prompts stronger countermeasures.
For Afghanistan, maintaining internal stability and security has become an imperative, particularly as the Taliban government seeks international legitimacy and economic assistance. Demonstrating the capacity to control militant groups operating within its territory is central to this objective. The continued presence of extremist organizations has raised serious concerns regarding Afghanistan’s role as a potential hub for transnational terror groups. Such developments are detrimental to both Afghanistan’s domestic stability and broader regional security. For the Taliban government, the challenge lies in balancing its traditional ideological affinities with militant factions like the TTP against the pragmatic need to eliminate terror outfits that undermine its quest for international engagement. Unless the Taliban government takes decisive and visible measures to rein in these groups, Afghanistan risks continued isolation. Hence, ensuring effective control over militant networks is not only a security necessity but also an urgent prerequisite for political legitimacy.
In recent years, South Asian geopolitics has been driven by pragmatic recalibrations, and the escalations between Afghanistan and Pakistan are deeply tied to the broader geopolitical shifts. At the regional level, India views Pakistan’s engagement with the United States with increasing apprehension. Also, the United States’ renewed interest in Afghanistan, exemplified by President Donald Trump’s remarks about retaking the Bagram Air Base, signals Washington’s intent to reassert a strategic foothold in the region. Control of Bagram would offer the United States a vantage point to monitor China, Iran, Russia and Central Asia, while also serving as leverage in its broader geopolitical contest with Beijing. Anti-Taliban factions, including the National Resistance Front (NRF) and remnants of the former US-backed Afghan Republic, have expressed support for a potential US return to Bagram, viewing it as an opportunity to revive organized resistance against the Taliban regime. There is speculation that the United States, with the help of Pakistan’s powerful military establishment, may seek to intensify coercive measures against the Taliban government if tensions escalate. Collectively, these developments underscore how Afghanistan once again sits at the crossroads of great power rivalry and clashing strategic interests.
On October 19, 2025, Pakistan and Afghanistan reached a Qatar and Türkiye-mediated ceasefire agreement in Doha, committing to mechanisms for lasting peace and stability. However, as per reports, the peace talks between both countries in Istanbul collapsed after four days as Pakistan accused the Taliban of refusing to act against the TTP militants. Pakistan had earlier warned of an “open war” if these negotiations failed. Looking ahead, several factors are likely to shape the prospects for sustainable peace and stability. First and foremost, the Taliban government must take steps to contain militant groups operating within Afghanistan, which will help mitigate mistrust and reduce cross-border tensions with Pakistan. Second, both countries need to rationally prioritize the economic opportunities on offer, especially considering their economic challenges and Afghanistan’s dependence on Pakistan for regional connectivity. Achieving this will require effective mediation by regional stakeholders and international partners, along with plans for investments, inclusive governance and attention to local grievances. Finally, regional countries should prioritize continuous engagement and promote confidence-building measures.
