Ties between India and Canada are rapidly deteriorating after both countries recently expelled each other’s diplomats. In June 2023, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh separatist leader based in Canada, was killed outside a Sikh temple in Surrey, British Colombia, which led to tensions between both countries. Consequentially, Canada then paused trade talks with India, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced an investigation into allegations of the Indian government’s involvement in Nijjar’s killing. Diplomatic tensions continued into 2024 as the Canadian government accused India of targeting Sikh dissidents in Canada, escalating hostilities between the two nations. If tensions do not ease, the current escalation could have economic and political implications.
At the core of these lingering tensions is the Khalistan movement in Canada, which has continually strained bilateral ties. Successive Indian governments have expressed their concerns over the Canadian government’s approach towards Sikh separatist groups operating in Canada, especially after the 1985 Air India bombing that killed 329 people. The bombing was to retaliate against the Indian government for Operation Blue Star, which was aimed at removing Sikh militants from the Golden Temple in Amritsar in 1984. The domestic fallout from Operation Blue Star was severe, leading to the assassination of then-Prime Minister Indira Gandhi by her Sikh bodyguards. This assassination triggered violent anti-Sikh riots across various parts of India, further deepening the communal divide within the country.
Tensions between India and Canada have a long history, and recent events have exacerbated the situation. As per the statements from the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP), “Investigations have revealed that Indian diplomats and consular officials based in Canada leveraged their official positions to engage in clandestine activities, such as collecting information for the Government of India, either directly or through their proxies; and other individuals who acted voluntarily or through coercion.” The Canadian government has said that it believes that the Indian government has engaged in criminal activities in Canada. In a notably direct response, the Indian Foreign Ministry stated that it “strongly rejects these preposterous imputations and ascribes them to the political agenda of the Trudeau Government that is centered around vote bank politics,” reflecting the narrative in India that Trudeau’s policies are influenced by his reliance on support from the Canadian Sikh community. The Indian government brushed off the allegations, insisting that there is no evidence in support of the claims made by the Canadian government. Indian High Commissioner Sanjay Verma, in a recent interview, called Canada’s actions “the most unprofessional approach to bilateral relations.” However, the Canadian government accuses India of not cooperating with the investigation. Canada has the largest Sikh population outside of India which often features as a reason for political parties to tap into their votes. However, Canada also has an even bigger Hindu population whose vote could now shift away from the Liberal Party. As the House of Commons reconvenes for the fall session, an Ipsos poll reveals that Trudeau’s approval rating has dropped to 33%, marking a four-point decline since June.
In another development, the United States has charged former Indian intelligence officer Vikash Yadav with allegedly orchestrating a failed plot to assassinate a Sikh separatist in New York. The indictment, unsealed by the Justice Department, identifies Yadav as an ex-officer of India’s foreign intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW). As per the indictment report, Yadav recruited Nikhil Gupta, another Indian national, to carry out the assassination in the United States. To successfully refute this accusation, India now will have to prove that Yadav acted independently, as the Indian Foreign Ministry has asserted that he no longer works for the government. These findings have cast a shadow over India’s intelligence operations. The indictment against Yadav was released along with an arrest warrant, and typically in the US legal system it is issued by a grand jury after reviewing the evidence presented by the prosecutors, which means that there is substantial evidence to formally charge Yadav. The current situation remains complicated as Canada has been pushing the Five Eyes allies for support and recently the United States and New Zealand stated that Canada’s allegations against India in the killing of Nijjar should be taken seriously. US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller emphasized the gravity of the claims, urging a serious approach.
The indictment and escalating tensions over allegations of Indian involvement in extraterritorial violence have raised serious concerns about India’s conduct. However, it remains against the interests of the United States to sever ties with India, particularly given the current geopolitical landscape, where maintaining a strong relationship with India is crucial for counterbalancing China in the Indo-Pacific region. This underscores the complexity of the current situation, where ethical considerations clash with the long-term strategic interests of global powers like the United States.
The Indian response to the accusations made by the United States has been different from its response to the Canadian government, partly because of how the Trudeau government approached the case. The Modi government, which has now come to power for a third time, has often asserted a strongman image and the responses from New Delhi have been in line with this image. Moreover, the disparity in power dynamics and the level of influence both countries wield play a significant role in shaping India’s responses.
It is unprecedented for a prime minister to openly discuss such issues, as countries usually utilize various diplomatic avenues in such circumstances. Also, the narrative in mainstream Indian media has been completely against Trudeau, which complements the narrative of the Indian government to portray the situation in a way that aligns with its responses, potentially undermining diplomatic efforts to address tensions between India and Canada. This approach may further polarize public opinion and limit opportunities for constructive dialogue, thereby complicating prospects for an immediate resolution.
It is not in the interest of India and Canada to escalate the situation further as both countries have a lot at stake. The lingering diplomatic rift between both countries could deepen the uncertainty and tensions, impacting bilateral trade valued at around $8 billion. While India is now banking on its close ties with the United States and the UK to ease tensions, the Trudeau government has taken measures to convince its allies regarding the gravity of the situation. Canada and the United States have intelligence-sharing agreements as a part of their close alliance and Canada would have shared the evidence gathered by its agencies with Washington or vice-versa regarding the killing of Nijjar. However, the United States has refrained from taking a tough stance. So far, it seems like the United States posturing could be either because of the level of the required evidence to prompt serious action or because of Washington’s strategic priorities that have pushed it to take a more measured stance regarding Canada’s allegations.
