The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has deep historical roots, but in recent years, the dynamics have shifted significantly due to changes in regional politics, military capabilities, and international involvement. The trends in Israel’s strikes against Hezbollah, as well as the prospects for future engagements, reflect the broader geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. Indeed, since October 7, 2023, Lebanon has been one of the frontlines in the rise of tensions between Iran and its network of influence on the one hand, and Israel and its Western allies on the other.
On September 27, 2024, the death of Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary general of Hezbollah since 1992, marks a significant turning point in the ongoing conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. Nasrallah’s elimination by Israel, amid a broader campaign that also targeted much of Hezbollah’s military leadership, has delivered a severe blow to the group’s operational capabilities and its influence both in Lebanon and across the region. Nasrallah was not just the leader of Hezbollah but also a symbolic figure for many in the Lebanese Shiite community, credited with transforming Hezbollah into a powerful political and military force. His death leaves a vacuum that will be difficult to fill, mainly because his potential successors may lack his charisma and strategic acumen. This could lead to a period of disarray within Hezbollah, weakening its ability to mobilize against Israel in the near term effectively.
The immediate consequences of Nasrallah’s death could include a temporary reduction in Hezbollah’s military activities due to the loss of leadership and compromised communication systems. For Lebanon, the death of Nasrallah might provide an opportunity for the international community to advocate for a reduction in Hezbollah’s influence and support a more independent Lebanese state. However, the transition period could also be fraught with instability, as Hezbollah remains a significant force despite recent setbacks. Overall, Nasrallah’s death has introduced a high degree of uncertainty into an already volatile region, with potential ripple effects that could reshape the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. The death of Nasrallah will also affect the regional and international role of Iran. Indeed, Nasrallah and the Lebanese Hezbollah were a model for other members of the “Axis of Resistance” and an Iranian asset to promote the 1979 revolution in Africa and South America.
Over the decades, Hezbollah has grown into a powerful paramilitary organization with significant political influence within Lebanon. The group is backed by Iran, both financially and militarily, and its stated goal includes the “destruction of Israel.” This adversarial relationship has led to several major conflicts, including the 2006 Lebanon War, which saw extensive Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah positions. On September 23, 2024, Israeli military operations killed more than 500 people, including at least 35 children and 58 women. This means that in half a day, half of all the civilian losses Lebanon experienced in 2006 during the previous war with Israel were surpassed; entire families have been wiped out, and tens of thousands of people have been forced to flee.
With advancements in technology, particularly in surveillance and drone capabilities, during the first months of its military operation in Lebanon, Israel has been able to conduct targeted strikes. This shift is part of a broader strategy to degrade Hezbollah’s military capabilities as well as eliminate the leadership of the organization while avoiding large-scale escalation. A key target of Israeli strikes has been Hezbollah’s supply chains, particularly the routes used to transport weapons from Iran through Syria to Lebanon. These strikes often focus on arms depots, convoys and key infrastructure.
The Syrian civil war has provided Israel with both challenges and opportunities. Hezbollah’s involvement in the conflict, fighting alongside the Assad regime, has led to the group gaining battlefield experience but also becoming more entrenched in the region. Israel has capitalized on this by frequently striking Hezbollah positions in Syria, particularly near the Israeli border and in areas used as transit points for Iranian arms.
The prospect of increased tensions between Israel and Hezbollah is high, particularly as Hezbollah continues to benefit from Iranian military and financial support. The acquisition of precision-guided missiles and other advanced weaponry poses a significant threat to Israeli security. Israel’s strategy is focusing on preemptive strikes to prevent Hezbollah from achieving a military advantage, which in turn could lead to larger-scale conflicts.
On October 1, Israeli troops began their “limited” ground invasion of Southern Lebanon. According to two Lebanese security sources who spoke to Reuters, Israeli troops conducted overnight incursions into Lebanon for reconnaissance and probing operations. Additionally, the sources reported that Lebanese troops withdrew from positions along the border. Israeli officials said their operation would be “limited, localized and targeted ground raids based on precise intelligence” aiming at Hezbollah targets in Southern Lebanon. Israel had initially planned a larger invasion, but following extensive discussions with US officials urging Tel Aviv to reconsider, the ground assault was scaled back. However, it is anyone’s guess whether Israel’s operation will remain limited. Later the same day, Iran launched a barrage of 200 ballistic missiles aimed at Israel from its own territory. In the wake of this attack, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a resolute warning, declaring that “Iran made a big mistake tonight – and it will pay for it.” Iran claims that the strike served as a cautionary message to Israel, threatening “stronger and more painful” blows in response to any Israeli counteraction. While Israel is strengthening its forces in Lebanon, the Israeli military reported that one of its soldiers was killed in an ambush near Hezbollah tunnels in Lebanon, marking its first confirmed fatality since the start of the ground operation. According to The Times, Israel’s military has suffered many causalities and an unconfirmed number of dead.
In light of the October attack on its territory, Israel is unlikely to consider any diplomatic solution until it retaliates and achieves its goals. For its part, Hezbollah vowed to continue fighting Israel after Nasrallah’s killing. The cycle of violence seems never-ending.
The broader geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East, particularly the role of Iran, are crucial in shaping the future of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. As Iran continues to exert its influence through Hezbollah, Israel’s strikes may increasingly target Iranian assets in the region, raising the risk of a broader regional confrontation. The potential involvement of other regional powers, such as Russia, which has a significant presence in Syria, also adds complexity to the situation.
The international community, particularly the United States and France, plays a significant role in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. The United States, France and key allies issued a joint statement on September 25, 2024 calling on Israel and Hezbollah to agree to a 21-day ceasefire during which negotiations could take place on a diplomatic solution to the crisis on the Israeli-Lebanese border. Despite this US diplomatic posture, a key factor driving Israeli military operations and strategy is US military support for Israel.
While the prospect for a peaceful resolution to the Israel-Hezbollah conflict remains distant, changes in the regional or international political landscape could create opportunities for de-escalation. For instance, a shift in Iranian policy, either due to internal pressures or as part of a broader international agreement, could lead to a reduction in Hezbollah’s military activities. However, such a scenario appears unlikely in the near term, given the entrenched positions of the parties involved.
The trends in Israel’s strikes against Hezbollah reflect a complex and evolving conflict driven by technological advancements, regional power dynamics and international involvement. The prospects for the future suggest a continued pattern of targeted strikes and ground operations, with the potential for escalation depending on Israel’s retaliation to the direct Iranian missile attack. As both sides continue to prepare for potential large-scale conflict, the situation remains a critical flashpoint in the Middle East, with significant implications for regional and global stability.
