The recent NATO summit in Washington celebrated the alliance’s 75th anniversary. During the summit, NATO allies highlighted the historic accession of Finland and Sweden. Despite certain divergences, the summit’s core focus was on aiding Ukraine and enhancing deterrence against Russia. The summit emphasized unity in supporting Ukraine, transitioning European security responsibilities to European capitals, and strengthening defense cooperation with Indo-Pacific allies. Key initiatives with the latter included building a robust defense industrial base, advancing cyber defense, countering disinformation, and technological projects to deter challenges from within and beyond the region. The summit underscored rising concerns about China’s expanding global influence and Russia’s persistent resilience in the ongoing war in Ukraine. European allies are cautious about escalating tensions between China and the United States, prioritizing economic relations with China, while still recognizing Russia as the main threat.
In the summit declaration, NATO member states identified Russia, China North Korea, and Iran as primary challenges and threats. As in previous summits, the latest one also highlighted China’s coercive policies in the Indo-Pacific and its strategic partnership with Russia. NATO allies used stronger language than before to criticize China for its role in assisting Russia in its war against Ukraine, labeling it a “decisive enabler” of the war. China was specifically called out for supporting Moscow’s “no limits” partnership by providing military assistance. The responses to NATO’s declaration are important and highlight the growing tensions. Beijing criticized NATO for amplifying the “China threat” and provoking tensions, with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi rejecting claims of Beijing’s support for Moscow in the Russia-Ukraine war. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov condemned NATO’s actions as inherently “confrontational.” Iran also dismissed NATO’s accusations of military support to Russia, attributing the Russia-Ukraine war to NATO’s provocative policies led by the United States.
There has been a significant increase in European defense budgets from 2022 to 2024, with 23 out of 32 NATO allies meeting the 2% GDP target. This increased defense spending among European allies could strengthen NATO’s collective defense posture. NATO leaders have also committed to supplying Ukraine with at least $43 billion in military aid over the next year to strengthen its defense against Russia. This is primarily intended to reinforce deterrence against potential threats and solidify bipartisan US support for the alliance.
Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen confirmed that the process of transferring F-16s to Kyiv is currently in progress after thorough pilot training and political discussions. The first F-16 fighter jets are now en route to Ukraine and are expected to commence flights this summer, as announced by the Dutch and Danish governments. In a joint statement, the leaders of the United States, the Netherlands and Denmark pledged support for the jets’ sustainment, armament and further pilot training to boost operational effectiveness, while continuing coordinated efforts to bolster Ukraine’s defenses. The arrival of the F-16s marks a significant boost for Ukraine’s air capabilities, fulfilling a longstanding request from Kyiv and potentially enhancing its defensive and offensive operations amid the ongoing war.
This year’s summit also reflected underlying concerns about divisions within NATO, particularly as Hungary’s Viktor Orban engaged in solo peace efforts, including a meeting with former US President Donald Trump. Orban’s attempts to act as a mediator to end the Russia-Ukraine war, which also involved visits to Russia and China, caused friction with Hungary’s NATO allies like the United States, Germany, France, and Lithuania.
As in previous years, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended this year’s summit. It is important to note that Kyiv has not received a formal invitation to join NATO, as there is no consensus among allies on this matter. NATO’s cautious approach to Ukraine’s membership reflects fears of provoking further conflict with Russia. NATO reaffirmed that Ukraine’s future lies within the alliance, continuing support for its path toward full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership. Building on decisions from the 2022 Madrid Summit and 2023 Vilnius Summit, NATO allies committed to supporting Ukraine’s progress on interoperability and necessary security reforms. NATO leaders confirmed that an invitation could be extended when conditions are met and allies reach a consensus. The qualification of “when conditions are met” highlights a significant catch, as it introduces uncertainty. This could lead to delays, especially if a future US administration, such as a potential Trump presidency, alters the approach to Ukraine’s NATO membership and shifts the alliance’s current priorities.
Trump has consistently criticized NATO, hinting he might withhold defense protection for allies failing to meet their defense spending targets or even suggesting withdrawal from the alliance. Although the US Congress has passed laws to prevent unilateral presidential withdrawal, Trump could still undermine NATO by blocking consensus or withholding aid during crises, threatening the alliance’s effectiveness and prompt responses during escalations. With the US elections approaching, possibilities about Trump’s potential return remain a major concern for NATO allies. Former Trump administration National Security Adviser John Bolton had predicted that “In a second Trump term, we’d almost certainly withdraw from NATO.”
This year’s summit also marked a renewed focus on the Indo-Pacific, with NATO stepping up cooperation with Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. Significant measures were taken to enhance cross-regional dialogue, including a flagship project centered on cyber defense and technology. This reflects a strategic pivot toward enhancing defense capabilities across regions. The collaboration between NATO and its Indo-Pacific partners is largely intended to address emerging global threats, especially from China, reinforce collective security, and ensure strategic stability amid concerns that a loss for Kyiv in the war would make it more difficult to deter China in the Indo-Pacific.
Looking ahead, generating consensus on major issues, and ensuring continuity in policies and approaches is critical to preserving the alliance’s effectiveness and credibility, even as domestic political shifts occur in key NATO states like the United States, France, and the UK. However, it remains an open question whether a second Trump presidency would lead to the end of NATO.
