Following the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, regional countries have responded differently to navigate the sudden political shifts in the country. Currently, clashes have erupted between US-backed Kurdish forces and the Türkiye -backed Groups, alongside numerous reports of intensified Israeli strikes. Arab League foreign ministers, joined by global diplomats in Jordan, emphasized support for a peaceful, inclusive transition in post-Assad Syria. Amid the rapid developments in Syria, regional countries are maneuvering in alignment with their own interests, concerns, and skepticism.
Israel has expanded its occupation of the Golan Heights, signaling plans to increase settlements in the area. The Israeli cabinet approved an $11 million plan to enhance services in existing settlements in the Golan Heights, and has leveraged the instability to expand its buffer zone. Israel said that it has destroyed 80% of the Assad regime’s military with its intensified attacks. Donald Trump was the first leader to officially recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights and with his return to power, Israel anticipates continued US support for its operations in the region. Regional countries remain cautious and have condemned Israel’s actions in Syria.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently met Syria’s new de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa to discuss Syria’s political transition and rebuilding efforts and has called for the lifting of international sanctions on Syria. Türkiye had intensified attacks against YPG-PKK fighters in northern Syria and Iraq in recent years and after the collapse of the Assad regime, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned Kurdish fighters in Syria to either disband or face destruction. Türkiye has expressed interest in increasing its energy cooperation and signing an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) agreement with Syria. Turkish officials have also expressed their willingness to help in postwar reconstruction that will be critical for Syria’s overall stability. Erdogan has announced plans to open a consulate in Aleppo, expecting more Syrian refugees to return next year.
The collapse of the Assad regime represents a major strategic loss for Iran and its “Axis of Resistance.” For over a decade, the Assad regime had been a vital ally of Iran, enabling Tehran to maintain its influence in the region. The Iranian embassy in Syria was attacked, further highlighting the vulnerability of Iranian interests in the region. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei urged Syrians to resist the rebel-led government following the ouster of Bashar al-Assad, claiming that the uprising was orchestrated by the West. Iran’s Expediency Discernment Council member Mohsen Rezaee stated that “the resistant Syrian youth and people will not remain silent in the face of foreign occupation, aggression, and internal autocracy by certain factions.” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has cautioned against rushing to conclusions about Syria’s future and has called the situation unpredictable, hinting at Iran’s intentions to interfere in the current security environment. These responses have been strongly criticized by the Arab League. It is yet to be seen if Tehran will engage with the new government in Damascus and how Tehran will navigate its interests amid widespread anger against its interference in the country.
Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi met Sharaa in Damascus. Jordan shares a 375 kilometer border with Syria and has been grappling with significant challenges, particularly regarding border security and the smuggling of weapons and drugs like Captagon pills. Jordan is home to approximately 710,000 Syrian refugees and Jordanian officials have recently emphasized efforts to expedite and support the voluntary return of these refugees. As the domestic situation in Syria is undergoing rapid changes, Jordan has swiftly begun engaging with the de facto government in Damascus to address its lingering security concerns and safeguard its interests.
Qatar’s Minister of State of Foreign Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi visited Damascus and met Sharaa. Qatar was a critic and an important supporter of the armed rebellion against the Assad regime. Qatar had refrained from restoring ties with Syria despite its return to the Arab League last year. Qatar reaffirmed its commitment to supporting Syria’s stability and reconstruction, emphasizing efforts to rebuild after years of war. Reports also suggest that Qatar could revive the $10 billion gas pipeline project to supply gas to Europe via Syria and Türkiye which was earlier rejected by the Assad regime. A Qatar Airways technical team assessed Damascus International Airport for potential recommissioning and has indicated plans for direct flights. Additionally, the Qatar Fund for Development engaged in discussions to establish mechanisms for humanitarian aid delivery. Qatar has also called for the immediate lifting of international sanctions on Syria.
A Saudi delegation met Sharaa in Damascus to discuss regional issues, including the longstanding challenges posed by the Captagon trade which has been a significant concern for Saudi Arabia. In an interview, Sharaa commended Saudi Arabia’s development and expressed aspirations for similar progress in Syria, emphasizing potential economic and development cooperation with the Gulf states. Saudi Arabia has been closely monitoring the situation in Syria and Saudi responses indicate a pragmatic approach rooted in fostering regional stability and addressing challenges in a collaborative and consultative manner.
UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan held a phone call with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani and discussed developments in Syria. They also discussed mechanisms to strengthen bilateral ties. The UAE has reiterated its support for Syria’s unity and sovereignty, emphasizing efforts for a comprehensive, inclusive transition to secure a prosperous future. This marks the first official UAE engagement with Syria’s new leadership amid growing regional diplomatic efforts. The UAE’s responses so far are indicative of its efforts to constructively engage with Syria, supporting an inclusive transition for stability and economic recovery.
Amid the unprecedented developments in Syria, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani emphasized Iraq’s diplomatic efforts to contain the crisis in Syria, citing its direct impact on Iraqi security. Iraq has expressed concerns over any spillover effects, especially as ISIS remnants remain a threat. The foreign ministers of Iraq and Oman also held talks in Baghdad and discussed the ongoing situation in Syria.
The focus of any government in Damascus must shift toward addressing the economic challenges and prioritizing stability to secure its survival. The support of regional countries, particularly the Gulf states, will be vital for Syria’s economic development, diversification, and broader engagement. This will help reduce dependency on any one country, as seen in the Assad regime’s reliance on Iran, which limited Syria’s strategic autonomy and restricted its foreign policy. Moving forward, Syria will have to avoid a similar situation to pave the way for active cooperation with its neighbors and regional countries. In the long term, balancing relationships with key regional powers is essential for Syria’s stability and sustainable growth.
The future approach will largely depend on the nature of the new government and Sharaa is well aware of this as evident from his recent responses and the political positions he has projected so far. Regional countries will likely test the waters before determining the scope and depth of their engagement and the level of regional support will also hinge on the new government’s ability to secure its borders and combat extremist factions, a challenge compounded by some rebel groups refusing to militarily disband unconditionally. Furthermore, international aid will play a critical role in Syria’s economic recovery, and the new government will have to demonstrate a commitment to upholding international law and human rights to secure such support.