Ever since the military escalation in December 2025, the situation in Yemen has been evolving rapidly. Recent developments indicate that the country may be entering a critical phase in which the choices made by local and regional actors will decisively shape prospects for stability. Given Yemen’s geostrategic location and its proximity to international trade routes, stability in Yemen and the Red Sea is not just a regional concern but a matter of global importance. Amid shifting regional geopolitical dynamics, Yemen has increasingly become an arena for competing influences, a reality that has only deepened its instability. Without a coherent and coordinated approach, Yemen risks remaining trapped in recurring cycles of fragmentation, humanitarian collapse and destabilizing spillover effects beyond its borders.
In early January, developments in southern Yemen underscored the fragility of the internal situation in the country. Amid the military escalation by armed groups in the south, Saudi airstrikes targeted positions in Hadramawt. Recently, Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) announced that its forces had regained control of Hadramawt, Al-Mahra and Aden. These moves were widely interpreted as a decisive Saudi response aimed at restoring state authority and enforcing red lines directly linked to national security. The Southern Transitional Council (STC) announced its dissolution following talks hosted by Saudi Arabia. While the group credited Riyadh’s mediation efforts, its former leader, Aidarous al-Zubaidi, who is now accused of high treason by the PLC, fled the country. The PLC subsequently revoked his membership, referred him and allied ministers for investigation. Recent developments reveal the political differences and splits within the STC. Saudi and Yemeni officials nonetheless expressed optimism that inclusive dialogue in Riyadh remained the best route toward a political settlement. Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman announced that Saudi Arabia will convene an inclusive Riyadh conference on southern Yemen to advance a comprehensive political solution through dialogue.
Recent developments must be assessed along with Yemen’s structural challenges as well as regional priorities. The Houthis continue to control much of the north, creating persistent challenges for aid distribution, economic recovery and proper governance. In the south, recent military escalations due to unilateral decisions by armed groups exacerbated competing armed formations, political rivalries and fragile governance arrangements. This fragmentation has compounded longstanding humanitarian issues. Parallel government structures and a volatile security environment have severely affected living conditions, marked by chronic electricity shortages, food insecurity, a deteriorating healthcare system and widespread poverty. As per UN reports, Yemen’s humanitarian crisis is among the world’s most severe: an estimated 17 million people, which is nearly half the population, face acute food insecurity and around 1 million are at risk of extreme hunger. Such conditions cannot be addressed through humanitarian relief or aid programs alone; they require parallel efforts to tackle deep-rooted structural challenges, which in turn depend on sustained stability and a broad regional and local consensus. As long as internal infighting and episodic violence continue, attention and resources are repeatedly diverted away from recovery and reconstruction, leaving the ordinary Yemeni population to bear the cost.
It is in this context that the role of the international community and Saudi Arabia becomes central. International organizations and institutions, including the European Union, have contributed humanitarian assistance and supported diplomatic efforts, but their impact ultimately depends on the existence of a coherent political framework inside Yemen. Saudi Arabia’s role is distinct because the stakes for Riyadh are high and proximate, especially considering the long border it shares with Yemen. The latter’s instability directly affects Saudi Arabia’s internal security and economic interests, including the protection of critical energy infrastructure and global shipping routes. Unlike more distant actors, Saudi Arabia has both the incentive and the capacity to invest political and security capital in stabilizing Yemen. Any security vacuum in eastern or southern Yemen would also provide fertile ground for terrorist organizations. Given this situation, Saudi-led initiatives carry weight because Riyadh possesses the diplomatic influence, resources and security leverage to translate political will into tangible outcomes. Importantly, Saudi Arabia’s actions have not been unilateral; they have remained aligned with and channeled through Yemen’s internationally recognized government (IRG). Strengthening and empowering this framework is essential for three key reasons. First, it preserves Yemeni sovereignty and the institutional legitimacy of the IRG. Second, it provides a unified and credible interlocutor for regional and international engagement, and third, it creates the necessary foundation for stabilizing security, restoring governance and advancing a sustainable political settlement.
For peace efforts to succeed, Yemen requires more than political declarations or temporary truces. Stability must be built through practical mechanisms that translate dialogue into governance. Inclusive political dialogue is essential as Yemen’s history reveals that exclusion fuels conflict and mistrust. Equally important is the unification of political decision-making and the minimization of internal rifts that armed actors have historically exploited.
A viable roadmap for Yemen now centers on a Saudi-led high-level dialogue that safeguards both Saudi security interests and Yemeni sovereignty. Strengthening the PLC as the internationally recognized executive authority is critical, as it remains the primary channel through which Yemen can engage with the wider world and access international support. Moreover, Saudi support remains vital for the protection of the oil assets, energy routes and maritime corridors, which are critical for the country. At the diplomatic level, managing relations with regional partners reinforces the priority of tackling competing external agendas within the country and focusing on rebuilding a coherent state. Saudi-led initiatives to address Yemen’s military situation were recently announced by PLC President Rashad al-Alimi. As part of these efforts, the PLC has formed a Supreme Military Committee to unify, equip and prepare government-aligned forces for the next phase of the conflict, with the committee operating under the Saudi-led coalition to ready forces should the Houthis reject a peaceful solution. The immediate focus is based on two parts: building consensus both regionally and with international institutions and addressing the military situation by supporting Yemen’s forces to push back against threats.
Focusing on the nature of power-sharing arrangements will be necessary to accommodate Yemen’s regional diversity without undermining national cohesion. Managing challenges concerning the fragmented armed groups is among the biggest obstacles to stability. While integration is a long-term process, incremental steps toward unified command structures and clear chains of authority can reduce the risk of renewed conflict. Economic stability also remains a key pillar of peacebuilding in the country, for which international aid and regional support remain critical. Yemen’s war economy has entrenched interests that thrive on disorder. Without tangible improvements in livelihoods and services, any political settlement risks losing public support. The humanitarian dimension cannot be separated from these efforts. As mentioned earlier, Yemen continues to face one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, with millions dependent on aid. While emergency assistance remains vital, it must be urgently complemented by early recovery initiatives that rebuild infrastructure and restore basic services. Protecting humanitarian access and avoiding the politicization of aid are critical to maintaining civilian trust and enabling reconstruction.
Yemen stands at a precarious juncture, and at this point, the focus of regional powers should be to restore state authority, facilitate inclusive dialogue and enhance regional security. The situation in Yemen poses a regional risk with global ramifications, making it critical and highly volatile, where any miscalculation could have serious consequences.
