Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa recently visited Moscow and met Russian President Vladimir Putin, marking his first official meeting since taking power. The meeting comes against the backdrop of uncertainties regarding the future of Syria-Russia relations ever since the fall of the Assad regime. Syria and Russia have maintained communication and held several meetings in recent months to assess prospects in their bilateral ties. In September, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak visited Damascus to discuss mechanisms to continue energy cooperation as well as reconstruction and humanitarian support with Syrian officials. Recent developments suggest that both sides are keen to engage constructively and seek mutual assurances to strengthen their partnership.
For Russia, it is extremely important to maintain control of its military bases in Hmeimim and Tartus. Russia also has a military presence at Qamishli airport in the northeast. These facilities are Russia’s only foothold in the region, crucial for sustaining regional influence without exhausting its resources amid the war in Ukraine. Russia has expanded its military footprint in the Sahel through private contractors and security partnerships, not only to counter Western influence but also to link and bolster its growing operations in Africa, including its bases in Libya, thereby enhancing its influence across the region. Therefore, Russia’s military presence in Syria serves as a strategic linchpin that anchors its power projection across the Eastern Mediterranean and Africa, ensuring strategic advantage in a rapidly shifting geopolitical environment.
The recent talks between both countries emphasized rebuilding Syria’s critical infrastructure, covering energy, rail and transport systems damaged by years of conflict. Russian influence could be formalized and stabilized if Moscow reaches a tactical understanding with the new Syrian regime, aligning interests to secure a long-term regional presence and operational continuity, which, as per reports, was discussed during the recent meeting. Russian companies are keen to maintain and scale up their operations in Syria’s oil sector, including new fields, signaling long-term engagement in energy projects. Russia’s involvement in Syria’s energy sector is motivated by the need to reinforce its strategic leverage, complementing its military presence, while also creating opportunities to navigate sanctions through trade and investment in a relatively less regulated environment.
For Syria, maintaining relations with Russia involves key calculations and considerations. Syria remains dependent on Russia for its food security, energy and defense, creating a structural asymmetry in their relations. The Syrian armed forces remain heavily reliant on Russian-supplied weapons systems, a dependence that cannot be swiftly altered, particularly given the country’s limited defense infrastructure, ongoing economic constraints and the absence of viable alternative suppliers.
Syria’s energy sector remains fragile, with limited domestic production and damaged infrastructure constraining output and exports. In this context, external support is crucial for stabilizing operations and facilitating gradual recovery, with countries like Russia able to play an important role. As per reports, Russia has increased shipments of Arctic oil to Syria, supplying around 2.6 million barrels so far this year to support Syrian refineries. This helps Syria replace suspended Iranian oil deliveries that had temporarily halted refinery operations. Russian support in rebuilding Syria’s energy infrastructure will remain crucial, given the government’s priorities to restore production capacity, attract foreign investment and reestablish the country’s position in regional energy markets.
The Syrian government also recognizes the importance of Russia’s diplomatic support at a time when it is actively pursuing global support. Russia, as a permanent member of the UNSC, can veto or block proposals related to Syria. Ensuring Russian acquiescence, or at least neutrality, is therefore a central objective for the Syrian government as it seeks to rebuild the country’s international legitimacy and attract economic and political backing. In this context, Sharaa reaffirmed to Putin Damascus’ desire to redefine bilateral relations on the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity. Beyond formal diplomacy, Syrian calculations likely aim to minimize distrust and reduce the risk of misperception or miscalculation. This includes seeking explicit assurances from Russia that it will not rearm remnants of Assad’s forces, a vital measure to consolidate governmental control and prevent potential destabilization.
The Syrian government’s outreach to Moscow essentially reflects realpolitik considerations, which is evident from the fact that it has so far refrained from provoking Russia or relying on any anti-Russian propaganda. Moreover, although Damascus has requested Assad’s extradition, it has not pursued the matter with rigidity. In a recent interview, Sharaa said he will use all legal means possible to bring Assad to justice. He also affirmed that engaging with Russia in a conflict now would be too costly for Syria. The Syrian government appears to be treating the extradition of Assad as one factor among many, rather than a sticking point that could jeopardize its broader strategic interests.
Regional geopolitical factors also remain important drivers of Syria’s foreign policy approach in the current context. Syria is confronted with imminent challenges, particularly Israeli escalations which have crossed critical thresholds, undermining international law and heightening regional tensions. Israeli attacks in Syria in recent months have only increased the Syrian government’s anxiety and concerns. Given that internal security is Syria’s foremost concern, and recognizing that only the United States can exert leverage over Israeli actions, the Syrian government must carefully balance its relations with both Washington and Moscow to protect its credibility and manage regional threats. Also, US reservations persist regarding the nature of Russia–Syria relations, with US officials wary of driving Syria back into Moscow’s orbit. Consequently, there is some pressure on Washington to expedite the full lifting of sanctions to maintain strategic leverage and influence over Damascus. In this context, Syria recognizes that restoring autonomy will require tactical balancing that could help leverage competition between the United States and Russia to its advantage while enhancing the scope for flexible diplomacy.
Syria’s approach reflects its cautious yet deliberate effort to diversify its partnerships, aligning with a broader regional trend toward pragmatic, interest-driven engagement. Syria, however, confronts a distinct challenge: unlike many other regional states, it lacks alternative partners in key sectors, making its engagement with both Russia and the West especially consequential. In this context, Syria’s reconstruction is closely tied to strengthening security and attracting investments. For now, both Damascus and Moscow have multiple areas of convergence and shared interests, but whether this partnership will endure in the long term is yet to be seen, as it hinges on reducing mistrust and managing regional uncertainties.
