On December 22, 2024, Saudi Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Fayyad bin Hamed al-Ruwaili visited Türkiye upon an invitation from his Turkish counterpart, Metin Gürak. The two officials held both individual and joint discussions, and Ruwaili also met with Türkiye’s minister of defense. While no official statements or comments were issued regarding the visit, it reflects recent positive developments in Saudi-Turkish relations and the strengthening of strategic cooperation, particularly in the defense sector. The timing of the visit is significant, coinciding with regional developments following the Gaza war and ongoing transformations in Syria and the Horn of Africa, areas of mutual strategic interest for both nations. This report explores the strategic dimensions of the Saudi-Türkiye rapprochement and its impacts.
Wider Contexts and Dimensions for Cooperation
The visit took place against the backdrop of rapid regional developments and at a moment when both sides seek to leverage favorable conditions in order to transform longstanding dynamics. These dynamics have historically hindered the region’s progress toward cooperative and integrative frameworks that promote economic and security interests while countering hostile agendas. Key aspects of Saudi-Turkish cooperation may include the following:
Seeking to Forge Advanced Relations at All Levels:
Saudi-Turkish relations have advanced significantly across various levels, regaining momentum following Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Saudi Arabia in early 2022 and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to Türkiye in July of the same year. The two countries agreed to enhance ties in several key areas, leading to a noticeable increase in trade, which reached 25.4 billion riyals in 2023, marking a 15.5% growth. Saudi exports to Türkiye accounted for 15.6 billion riyals, while Turkish imports to the kingdom totaled 9.8 billion riyals. Both countries aim to expand this collaboration further, focusing on sectors such as mining, healthcare, technology, communications, tourism, infrastructure, information technology, and defense.
A Shared Security Vision:
Saudi Arabia and Türkiye share a vision for establishing a new security environment that promotes stability in the Middle East and sets an example for regional actors to follow. This vision includes strengthening the coalition of Islamic countries in global calculations and countering international and regional schemes aimed at altering the regional balance of power and developing projects aligned with the ambitions of the major powers.
Focusing on Military Cooperation:
Military cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Türkiye is experiencing significant growth. The meeting between the two countries’ military chiefs held as part of the Saudi-Turkish Joint Military Committee’s sixth session — and the third in 2024 alone — highlighted discussions on advancing defense and military collaboration. This accelerated cooperation traces back to Erdogan’s visit to Riyadh in July 2023, during which an executive plan for defense cooperation was signed. The plan aimed to elevate bilateral defense trade to the level of a strategic partnership. This initiative has since materialized through several memoranda of understanding and agreements, including Saudi acquisitions of Turkish companies. Numerous visits and meetings have also focused on fostering collaboration and facilitating the transfer of military technology to Saudi Arabia.
A Special Focus on Drones:
Türkiye’s success in developing a local defense industry, particularly in the drone sector, has drawn significant interest from Saudi Arabia. Turkish drones, proven effective in conflicts such as the Nagorno-Karabakh war, the Russia-Ukraine war and in Syria, have positioned Türkiye as a leader in this field. Recognizing this, Saudi Arabia has signed two acquisition contracts with Turkish defense company Baykar. These agreements include a partnership between Saudi Arabian Military Industries (SAMI) and Baykar to establish domestic manufacturing capabilities and develop drone systems within the kingdom. By 2026, over 70% of SAMI’s production of Akinci drones is expected to be locally manufactured. To support this initiative, SAMI has sent 300 Saudi employees to Baykar for training, aiming to enhance their technical expertise and contribute to the project’s success.
Saudi Vision 2030 and the Indigenization of Military Industries:
Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 serves as a strategic framework guiding the kingdom’s defense policies, with a focus on diversifying defense partnerships, transferring advanced expertise domestically, and localizing defense production. The goal is to localize 50% of total defense spending by 2030, with nearly 20% of localization already achieved in 2023 — a significant milestone for Saudi defense industries. Saudi interest in defense cooperation with Türkiye aligns with this vision, particularly as the defense sector has been allocated $72.5 billion in the 2025 budget, marking a 5% increase compared to 2024. This reflects the kingdom’s progress in localizing defense production, with localization rising from 4% in 2018 to 19.35% by the end of 2023. Türkiye, in turn, sees these advancements and the broader Saudi vision as an opportunity to deepen its engagement with the kingdom and benefit from its ambitious defense industry initiatives.
Türkiye’s Emergence as a Major Arms Supplier:
Türkiye has recently solidified its position as a significant global arms supplier, with its defense industry exporting to 178 countries, including NATO member countries. On December 17, 2024, the state-owned Defense Technologies Engineering Company in Türkiye signed a contract with the Portuguese navy to construct two supply ships. Additionally, Turkish Ambassador to Spain Nüket Küçükel Izberci and Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles signed a memorandum of understanding for the sale of 24 Hurjet jet trainer aircraft, manufactured by Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), to Spain. Experts note that this marks the first time Türkiye has sold military ships and aircraft to NATO and EU member states. This highlights the strategic importance of Saudi Arabia’s cooperation with Türkiye in the military domain. Beyond purchasing Turkish arms, the partnership emphasizes collaboration in developing and localizing military industries — a priority for Saudi defense and strategic objectives.
Saudi-Turkish Military Cooperation — Strategic Impacts
Saudi-Turkish military cooperation at the defense level has taken on a strategic dimension, which could have significant effects on both their bilateral relations and the broader regional balance of power as follows:
Strategic Cooperation With Geopolitical Consequences:
The growing military cooperation between Riyadh and Ankara represents a significant strategic boost to their bilateral relations, potentially leading to closer collaboration across various domains, including regional coordination. This could impact the regional balance of power, especially amid the current regional volatility in the region and the efforts to reshape the Middle East. Both countries share common ground on several regional issues, including the Palestinian cause, the future of Syria, and their interests in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa regions. Furthermore, they prioritize regional stability to foster development and prosperity rather than chaos. Importantly, their cooperation does not antagonize the West, as both Riyadh and Ankara maintain strong ties with Western countries and are vital partners for Washington in the region, setting their military collaboration apart from their relations with other states.
Enhancing Capabilities in Light of Modern Warfare:
Saudi-Turkish cooperation strengthens the unconventional military capabilities of both countries, particularly in light of the evolving nature of warfare, where drones have become a decisive factor in urban conflicts, asymmetric warfare, and proxy wars in the region. The acquisition of these drones by non-state actors also poses a threat to the security and stability of countries. Turkish drones are not only more affordable than their US counterparts but also offer advanced technological capabilities, positioning them at the forefront of military technology. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is ambitiously developing its shipbuilding industry as part of its maritime modernization program. The newly established Shipbuilding Authority aims to localize 100% of naval shipbuilding within the kingdom. Given Türkiye’s prominent role in the global shipbuilding industry, it is expected to become a key partner in this field.
Mutual Gains and Interests:
Saudi-Turkish defense cooperation reflects mutual interests. Türkiye seeks financial resources, expanded arms sales and a strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia, a country ranked fifth globally in terms of defense spending. For its part, Saudi Arabia aims to leverage Türkiye’s expertise to advance its goals of reducing reliance on foreign defense capabilities. This collaboration could enable both countries to realize more ambitious objectives in the defense sector. Notably, such a level of military expertise transfer typically occurs only when there is a high level of alliance and mutual trust between the parties involved.
An Opportunity to Reposition Amid Global Shifts:
The global order is experiencing significant upheaval, with power struggles among major actors creating opportunities for middle powers to assert their interests and redefine their roles regionally and globally. Both Türkiye and Saudi Arabia possess the potential to influence the reshaping of the Middle East in this transitional period. Comprehensive bilateral cooperation could pave the way for forming a regional axis led by Riyadh and Ankara. Syria may serve as a critical test for this potential axis (Riyadh-Damascus-Ankara), particularly as the country’s new leadership appears inclined toward fostering relations with both Türkiye and Saudi Arabia. Syria could also become a vital conduit for strengthening trade between the two countries, potentially facilitating new strategic projects that link the Gulf to Europe through Jordan, Syria and Türkiye, especially in energy and food security sectors.
Türkiye’s Emergence as a Security Partner to the Gulf States:
The Saudi-Turkish defense partnership creates opportunities for Türkiye to strengthen its ties with other Gulf states and establish them as strategic partners. The past decade has been marked by tensions and disagreements between Türkiye and Gulf countries, but this collaboration signals a shift toward mutual interests. Türkiye has consistently sought partnerships with Gulf states, recognizing the significant status and resources these countries possess. This interest stems from the substantial support these partnerships could provide to the Turkish economy, which has been grappling with challenges for years.
Independence and Leadership in the Military Industry:
Ankara has progressively minimized its reliance on foreign arms imports by advancing domestic production in sectors such as armed drones, missile systems, armored vehicles, and air defense systems. Saudi-Turkish cooperation covers these aspects, enabling the kingdom to benefit from Türkiye’s expertise especially in how it achieved self-sufficiency for a substantial portion of its military needs. This reduces dependence on international partners and mitigates the constraints, conditions and restrictions often associated with arms sales, which Saudi Arabia has faced in recent years. Such collaboration not only bolsters national security but also aligns with the kingdom’s substantial resources and its strategic interest in military and technological advancements. With Saudi Arabia’s significant investments and ambitions in this field, this partnership could have a transformative impact on global defense industries.
Potential Challenges
Despite the mutually beneficial aspects of Saudi-Turkish defense cooperation, several challenges persist, including:
Conflicting Interests With Major Powers:
Some international and regional powers may perceive the growth of Saudi-Turkish defense cooperation as a potential threat to their interests. Türkiye’s emergence as an arms supplier to the Gulf states could be viewed by Western powers as a challenge to their longstanding military partnerships in the region. This dynamic may prompt Western countries to exert pressure to curtail or influence the extent of Saudi-Turkish collaboration, particularly in the defense sector. Moreover, Türkiye’s dual approach to foreign policy — balancing ties with both Western powers and non-Western actors — raises concerns for the West, especially if this cooperation evolves into strategic coordination that could reshape the regional security framework.
The International Sanctions on Turkey:
Many Turkish aviation projects still depend on imported engines, a challenge that Turkish defense companies are striving to overcome by minimizing dependence on foreign suppliers. This dependence poses risks to domestic production projects, especially in the face of potential sanctions or restrictions that the United States might impose on equipment critical to Türkiye’s advanced defense industry. Such vulnerabilities could also affect Türkiye’s defense cooperation with Saudi Arabia. For instance, similar challenges were seen in Ankara’s defense collaboration with Pakistan, in which objections raised by the United States disrupted planned defense sales.
Israel Sabotaging Cooperation Trajectories:
Israel may perceive Saudi-Turkish defense and strategic cooperation as a challenge to its efforts to position itself as a key security provider and arms supplier in the region. This partnership could limit Israel’s opportunities to sell advanced weapons and reduce its influence on regional security dynamics. Consequently, Israel may attempt to obstruct this cooperation and counter any outcomes that it perceives as detrimental to its interests. Furthermore, Israel’s vision for the future of the Middle East might lead it to view this rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Türkiye —two of the region’s most influential powers — with both concern and caution. The prospect of strengthened ties and multifaceted alliances between Riyadh and Ankara could threaten Israel’s ambitions to expand the Abraham Accords and secure a dominant role in a regional system that integrates Israel at its core.
Iran’s Concerns:
Historically, Iran perceives both Saudi Arabia and Türkiye as regional competitors and views their cooperation as a direct challenge to its regional influence. Currently, this partnership threatens to create a new regional balance that undermines Iran’s strategic gains and influence. As Türkiye and the Gulf states accelerate their rapprochement and align their perspectives on achieving stability in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, Iran’s regional project — which is already encountering significant setbacks — may face further difficulties. While Türkiye and Saudi Arabia prioritize regional stability, Iran often relies on fomenting chaos to sustain its alliances with armed groups in various regional states. Additionally, cooperation at the defense level between Riyadh and Ankara could heighten regional competition, potentially fueling an arms race in the Middle East.
Concerns Regarding Saudi Arabia’s Strides in Localizing Its Defense Industry:
The kingdom’s significant progress in defense production reduces its reliance on arms imports while bolstering the development of its domestic defense industry. There is no doubt that the kingdom’s advancement in acquiring military manufacturing capabilities — fostering a strategy of defense diversification and independence — along with its ability to produce strategic and critical weapons, especially through cooperation with external partners like Türkiye, represents a major achievement for the national project led by the crown prince. This achievement, however, may be met with resistance from international and regional powers which have their own strategic calculations.
Conclusion
Saudi-Turkish military cooperation is accelerating, fueled by the kingdom’s determination to realize the crown prince’s goal of reducing external dependence on military capabilities while diversifying its defense partnerships. This collaboration seeks to minimize unproductive competition, often leading to ideological tensions. At the same time, Türkiye is motivated by the opportunity to secure a prominent regional partner, enhance comprehensive cooperation, inject resources into its struggling economy, and solidify its role as a military technology supplier. This cooperation not only strengthens defense ties but also positions the two countries for greater regional influence, advancing relations toward strategic dimensions. This partnership may significantly impact the Middle East’s evolving landscape, which is currently navigating complex, competing projects involving regional and global powers. Despite the challenges, both countries remain essential to establishing a more secure and stable future for the region. Syria, in particular, could serve as a crucial test for the broader implications of this partnership, both in defense and diplomacy, as it paves the way for advancing the relationship to a level that enhances regional security and mitigates dangerous fluctuations.
