Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, Russia and North Korea have significantly strengthened their cooperation, driven by mutual strategic interests. For Russia, this partnership helps alleviate the economic impact of Western sanctions and sustain its war efforts. Meanwhile, North Korea aims to break free from international isolation, secure essential resources, and bolster its economy through this alliance.
The two nations recently announced plans to expand economic collaboration, although details remain vague. Russian state news agency TASS reported that the agreement encompasses cooperation in industries such as tourism, science, and agriculture. This follows earlier discussions in September 2023 during North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s visit to Russia, where Russian Minister of Natural Resources Alexander Kozlov announced an increase in grain shipments to Pyongyang and explored resuming bilateral and regular flights and improving logistical and trade routes by reviving the Khasan-Rajin rail and port project. The November 2024 agreement formalized these efforts, marking a deeper commitment to economic partnership between the two states.
As Russia continues to deploy more of its working population to the frontlines, other sectors of its economy, such as construction and agriculture, are experiencing growing labor shortages. In response, the number of North Korean workers moving to Russia is expected to increase, helping to address these labor gaps. This development could also benefit North Korea by providing a source of foreign currency (a long-standing tradition for North Korea), which is a critical resource for its economy. The potential movement of North Korean labor to Russia has drawn attention due to its implications for UN-imposed sanctions, which prohibit the use of North Korean labor abroad. The situation highlights ongoing challenges in enforcing international sanctions and raises broader questions about their effectiveness in addressing evolving geopolitical realities.
More significant than the economic collaboration is the growing military partnership between Russia and North Korea. The two countries signed a mutual defense treaty in June of this year, committing to aid each other in the event of an attack. This development aligns with the broader context of arms trade and strategic exchanges.
The South Korean National Intelligence Service (NIS) estimates that North Korea has sent Russia over 8 million artillery shells since the war began. Artillery plays a decisive role in the Ukraine conflict, accounting for an estimated 80% of casualties on both sides. North Korea’s continued supply of artillery shells enables Russia to maintain its firepower advantage over Ukraine, with the current shell ratio heavily favoring Russia at 10:1. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has acknowledged his country’s artillery shortages, underscoring the criticality of this imbalance. The influx of North Korean shells not only strengthens Russia’s battlefield position but also eases the burden on its overstretched military-industrial complex in terms of production capacity for an already stressed war economy
The NIS report indicates that North Korea has sent over 11,000 soldiers to aid Russia, primarily in the Kursk region. This development could prove critical to Russia’s war efforts, as it allows the Russian military to avoid diverting troops from other parts of the front to support defensive or offensive operations in Kursk. The presence of such a significant number of North Korean troops alongside existing Russian forces in the region could undermine Ukraine’s current advantageous position for any future negotiations.
Recently, the Russian army has intensified its offensive operations in Kursk, aiming to push Ukrainian forces back across the border. President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to bring both Zelenskyy and Putin to the negotiating table to end the conflict as soon as his administration starts in January. In this context, it is crucial for Ukraine to leverage its occupation of parts of Kursk as a bargaining tool. Russia is undoubtedly aware of this strategic dynamic, and if the presence of North Korean troops in the region is confirmed, it signals Russia’s determination to deny Ukraine such an advantage.
While the full extent of what North Korea is receiving in return remains unclear, reports suggest Russia has supplied over a million barrels of oil to Pyongyang since the beginning of 2024, which is in violation of UN sanctions on North Korea. This influx of energy resources could support North Korea’s expanding armament programs, including the recently announced mass production of attack drones. Speculation also surrounds potential knowledge transfer from Russia to North Korea in advancing drone and nuclear technologies. If confirmed, such developments could further destabilize the Korean Peninsula, heighten tensions with South Korea and potentially draw South Korea into the Ukraine conflict through increased support for Kyiv. China, too, may view these developments as a threat to regional stability in northwest Asia.
The partnership between Russia and North Korea spans economic, military and strategic dimensions, with significant implications for global geopolitics. From munitions supplies and troop deployments to oil shipments and possible technology transfers, their collaboration highlights both states’ efforts to counter international isolation and sanctions. While this partnership bolsters their short-term objectives, it risks escalating tensions in Eastern Europe and Northeast Asia, potentially drawing more actors into the conflict. As this relationship evolves, its ramifications will likely extend beyond the immediate battlefield.
