The Zapad-2025 military exercise, jointly organized by Russia and Belarus in September 2025, has heightened tensions along Europe’s eastern borders and renewed global debates about security, alliances and geopolitical alignments. Although formally described as a defensive drill against a fictional external invasion, Zapad-2025 conveyed unmistakable strategic messages for NATO, the European Union (EU) and the wider international community. The exercise mobilized around 100,000 troops, including contingents from Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, India, Iran, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Mali, as well as 1,000 Russian and 7,000 Belarusian soldiers. Its operations extended beyond conventional maneuvers, incorporating simulated nuclear strikes with the Oreshnik missile system and Iskander-M launches, signaling Moscow’s determination to showcase both readiness and escalation potential. The drills were closely observed by representatives from NATO, the United States, Türkiye and Hungary, underscoring the global significance attached to the event.
Among the international participants, India’s first active involvement was particularly significant. New Delhi sent a 65-member team drawn from the army’s Kumaon Regiment, the air force and the navy. For Russia, this was a symbolic success in engaging the Global South even as it remains diplomatically isolated due to its war in Ukraine. For India, the decision illustrates the delicate balance it seeks to maintain. On one hand, India relies on Russia for approximately 60% of its weapons arsenal and faces mounting border tensions with China. On the other hand, it must manage relationships with Western partners, especially amid US tariffs of 50% on goods linked to Russian oil. India presented its participation as neutral, focused on open-terrain and counter-terrorism training and framed it within its broader vision of multipolarity rather than alignment with Moscow’s confrontation against NATO. This balancing act exposes the limits of Western influence over India. Attempts to pressure Delhi risk straining cooperation in other areas and could inadvertently reinforce Russia’s narrative of building a coalition of non-Western partners. At the same time, India’s decision challenges Western consistency: while New Delhi faced criticism, the presence of US, Turkish and Hungarian observers at the exercise drew far less attention.
The timing and geography of Zapad-2025 amplified its impact. Conducted near NATO’s eastern flank, the exercise coincided with a Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace, raising fears of hybrid provocations. Poland responded with the large-scale Iron Defender-25 deployment of 40,000 troops and a temporary border closure, underscoring how quickly incidents can escalate into broader confrontation. The role of Belarus compounds these risks. Its control over critical energy transit routes into the EU gives it additional leverage, creating the possibility of simultaneous military and economic pressures. These developments suggest that the boundary between conventional exercises and hybrid warfare is increasingly blurred.
For NATO, Zapad-2025 presents both practical and political challenges. The exercise simulated strikes against “NATO incursions,” directly questioning the credibility of collective defense commitments, particularly amid political uncertainty in the United States under President Trump. Although NATO has launched counter-exercises such as Germany’s Quadriga 2025 with 8,000 troops and the Joint Expeditionary Force’s Tarassis drill, which surpass Zapad in scale, the alliance remains divided. Eastern members insist on urgent reinforcements and integrated missile defense systems, while some Western states hesitate to escalate further. The alliance also faces reputational dilemmas. By criticizing India’s participation while tolerating observers from NATO’s own ranks, it risks reinforcing India’s argument for strategic autonomy. Furthermore, Zapad’s strong emphasis on air defense and electronic warfare strengthens Russia’s hybrid warfare, complicating NATO’s planning for the Baltic and Nordic regions.
Zapad-2025 highlights how Russia seeks to exploit shifting global alignments by building ties with the Global South. India’s involvement illustrates the appeal of multipolarity: by engaging in selective cooperation, states outside the Western bloc can gain tactical and political benefits while avoiding scrutiny from the West. This weakens Western initiatives such as the EU’s Global Gateway, which relies on broader coalitions for credibility. For India, participating in Zapad provides military learning opportunities, reinforces its autonomy and signals that it will not be confined to Western frameworks. Yet this comes with risks. Western pressure could alienate India at a critical time.
Zapad-2025 does not portend conflict escalation but signals a strategic shift. It demonstrates Russia’s adaptability under sanctions and highlights vulnerabilities within the EU and NATO across multiple domains. The emphasis on cybersecurity, border coordination and integrated missile and electronic warfare systems reflects the areas where the alliance feels pressure most acutely, particularly along its eastern flank. At the same time, the exercise underscores the challenge posed by the Global South’s engagement, with India’s participation complicating Western strategies. For New Delhi, taking part in Zapad reflected its commitment to strategic autonomy, reinforcing ties with Russia while maintaining a careful distance from Ukraine. This balancing act confirms India’s growing weight as a global actor, while also illustrating how middle powers can shape the geopolitical consequences of major exercises in ways that are not always aligned with Western expectations. The exercise shows how traditional military drills are now closely intertwined with hybrid tactics and broader contests of power. Staged on NATO’s doorstep and featuring India’s first-ever participation, Zapad-2025 points to a shifting international landscape in which alliances are tested, non-Western partnerships gain prominence and the scope for miscalculation narrows. Rather than a rehearsal for imminent war, the event served as a demonstration of capability and intent, projecting Russia’s resilience while revealing the complex choices facing both its adversaries and partners. In this sense, Zapad-2025 stands as a marker of the fluid and uncertain dynamics shaping global security today.
