Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq recently visited Tehran and met Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to discuss a range of diplomatic and security issues. The meeting occurred against the backdrop of the Saudi-Iran rapprochement deal and stalled nuclear talks. The recent visit is particularly significant in the context of some reports revealing that US President Joe Biden’s senior Middle East advisor Brett McGurk visited Oman in May to discuss issues concerning Iran’s nuclear program. It is believed that the United States is seeking another round of dialogue to resolve the deadlock over the Iranian nuclear file.
Oman’s mediating role is well-known in the Middle East, with it having a record of mediating between the Arab states and Iran as well as between Iran and the West. In addition, some reports indicate that the potential rapprochement between Iran and Egypt is a result of Oman’s mediation. Recently, Oman mediated a prisoner swap deal between Iran and Belgium that secured the release of Olivier Vandecasteele, a Belgian aid worker who was sentenced to 40 years in prison upon his arrest in 2022 on espionage charges. In exchange, Belgium released Assadollah Assadi, an Iranian diplomat, who was sentenced to 20 years in prison by an Antwerp court in 2021 for plotting a bomb attack that targeted a rally organized by Iranian dissidents near Paris. Official statements from Oman confirmed that Muscat had also helped in the release of two Austrian citizens and a Danish citizen from Iran. In addition, Oman played an important role in securing the release of detained Americans from Iran. During the Omani sultan’s recent visit, delegations from both countries signed agreements to increase cooperation in the fields of energy, investment, the economy and trade. Iran and Oman also signed an agreement for joint exploration of the Hengam oil field located in the Strait of Hormuz. As per the agreement, a Master Development Plan will be prepared after studying the prospects. The Hengam oil field covers an area of 288 square kilometers and nearly 80% of the oil field lies in Iranian territory. Tehran and Muscat have been discussing the possibilities to export Iranian gas to Oman since 2008 and jointly explore the Hengam oil field. However, complexities related to the sanctions stalled the progress between the two countries over the last two decades.
Recent reports reveal that bilateral trade between Iran and Oman exceeds $1.88 billion. During the 2022-2023 financial year, Iranian exports to Oman touched $1.08 billion, recording an increase of more than 50% compared to the previous year. Iran and Oman have gradually improved their bilateral relations and discussed mechanisms to increase trade cooperation. The Iran-Oman Business Forum was held in Tehran last month to help in building a strategic partnership to increase investments and explore new avenues for economic cooperation between the two countries. Both countries have expressed their interest in increasing cooperation in agriculture, construction, medicine and food items, particularly through facilitating interactions between respective business enterprises.
The following factors are indicative of Oman’s importance to Iran in the context of its changing foreign policy approach and the quest to mitigate the impact of sanctions. First, Oman has traditionally acted as the mediator between Iran and the West and Sultan Haitham bin Tariq’s recent visit is indicative of new diplomatic attempts to reach a nuclear deal. Evidence of this is that Iran’s top nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani was present in the Iranian delegation during the meeting with the Omani sultan. Furthermore, some recent reports indicate that the Biden administration has discussed with European partners a proposal for an interim agreement with Iran that would extend some sanctions relief to Tehran if it agrees to halt parts of its nuclear program. Second, Iran intends to widen the scope of engagement with Oman to lessen the negative effects of the harsh sanctions regime. Both the Iranian and Omani economies are dependent on energy and Iran in recent years has explored mechanisms to circumvent the sanctions by engaging closely with regional and global partners. Abdolali Rahimi Mozaffar, a member of the presiding board of the Iranian Parliament’s Energy Committee, said that Iran’s engagement with neighboring countries like Oman would help to promote the country’s energy diplomacy. Third, Iran intends to de-escalate the tensions and move toward rapprochement with neighboring Arab countries. In this quest, Oman is a reliable mediator to help in Iran’s new foreign policy approach. Moreover, Oman has helped Iran to unfreeze its assets. Last year during a meeting between the governors of the central banks of Iran and Oman, former Central Bank of Iran Governor Ali Saleh Abadi said that Oman had helped Iran to recover $500 million from the UK. In addition, reportedly as a result of Oman’s mediation, Iran will access $24 billion in frozen assets from Iraq and South Korea soon. Fourth, both countries have converging interests and mutual concerns, especially on the maritime security front. In light of this, Iran and Oman have conducted joint naval drills and recently, Iran expressed an interest in forming a new naval alliance with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain.
To conclude, amid the United States’ quest to tackle Iran’s nuclear file and in the context of Iran’s changing foreign policy approach, it is likely that Oman is best suited for both countries to play a mediating role in the hope of breaking the nuclear deadlock.
