As President-elect Donald Trump awaits his inauguration in January 2025, there is much interest and curiosity over his predictive foreign policy toward the Middle East, especially as he had claimed during his presidential campaign that he would immediately put an end to the Palestinian conflict and settle other regional files. With observers knowing of Trump’s deal-making skills and transactional approach, as well as his MAGA goals to prioritize US interests and pursue a more insular foreign policy, there was hope amongst some that Trump would pour cold water over the fires alight in the region. In addition, despite Trump’s affinity with Israel and close ties to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, past experience shows that he is not afraid of confronting Netanyahu or speaking candidly, unlike Biden. But how do all of these expectations and purported aims of Trump stack up in the context of his appointees to his new administration? What direction is his administration likely to take when it comes to the Palestinian conflict and Iran? Does Trump actually have a vision for ending the Palestinian conflict? Will there be a fallout with the Gulf states, consequentially straining US-Gulf relations? These questions are critical to understanding the future trajectory of the Middle East under Trump 2.0.
What is clear from Trump’s initial appointments is that the purported aim of pursuing an insular foreign policy and diminishing US primacy on the global stage has been blown out of the water, with Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, and Mike Waltz, the national security advisor, both believing in US primacy and military projection to enforce US influence and leadership around the world. In addition, these individuals have strong positions on Palestine and Iran, which provides insights into Trump’s attitude and orientation toward the region. These appointments and others like Mike Huckabee, US ambassador to Israel, have surprised many observers and even those within the MAGA movement as Rubio, Huckabee and Waltz are pro-Zionism and hawkish on Iran, in contradiction to Trump’s aim to defuse tensions and bring peace to the conflict-ridden region. So, what can be expected in terms of Palestine, Iran and US-Gulf relations in the next phase?
On the Palestinian front, Netanyahu’s prayers have been answered, with Trump appointing pro-Zionist figures to senior posts who have clearly expressed their support for Netanyahu to crush Hamas with no acknowledgment of the human suffering or the need for humanitarian corridors to be established to help the suffering people in Gaza. Rubio and Waltz have no end point in mind or exit strategy when it comes to Gaza and will likely take their lead from Netanyahu, especially when he believes he has “mowed the grass” to the fullest extent in Gaza. In addition, Trump’s closest advisor on Israel policy, David Friedman, is against a two-state solution and advocates for a one-state solution, with Israeli sovereignty and control over all Palestinian territories, including the annexation of the West Bank, which Huckabee, a Christian evangelical, also supports. Talk of a ceasefire, and the day after, will be postponed for further down the line, with Netanyahu ramping up operations to kill off what remains of Hamas’ fragmented cells and elements in Gaza. A similar picture will unfold in Lebanon, as Netanyahu will likely be given the green light to pursue Hezbollah further in Lebanon and ceasefire negotiations will be a distant dream in the short-term, though Trump’s purported Lebanon envoy Massad Boulos, who has extensive connections across Lebanon’s political landscape and a vested interest in the country, will aim to push forward prospects for a ceasefire, possibly hitting a brick wall and clashing with Rubio and Waltz on the matter. Overall, a nightmarish scenario is expected to unfold on these two fronts with far-reaching implications for regional stability and security, with Trump’s team accelerating crises rather than quelling tensions as one would have inferred from Trump’s remarks during his campaign.
Regarding Iran, tensions must be high in Tehran, with Iranian officials rattled by the return of Trump and his new appointments. Rubio and Waltz support the maximum pressure campaign on Tehran and view Tehran as the key impediment to peace and stability in the region. These figures will totally go against Biden’s appeasement policy toward Tehran and ramp up pressure on Iran by reinforcing past sanctions and imposing more in the hope of crippling the economy further and forcing the ruling establishment to wind down its operations and support for proxies across the region. More emphasis will be on pressure than diplomacy; although Trump has explicitly mentioned that he is open to talking to the Iranian government, but it is expected as a businessman, Trump will want to acquire more pressure cards before commencing negotiations; hence, more pressure on Iran, which will add weight to his deal-making when the time is right. Trump and his inner circle were dismissive of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and viewed it as non-permanent and not broad enough as it did not include issues like Iran’s ballistic missile program and support for proxies across the region. If a new deal is made at some point, it is expected that it will be much more lasting and broader, and Trump has indicated that he would prefer a segmented deal in which there are partial deals for specific outstanding issues with Iran. Before we get to this stage, expect a turbulent ride when it comes to US-Iran relations despite Iran showing a willingness to open dialogue with Trump 2.0. If Iran lashes out in the region to strengthen its hand against Trump, this would be highly risky when it faces a businessman who is not easily blackmailed or pressured to submit to outcomes not to his liking. In addition, this Iranian posture is only likely to irritate the Iran hawks further, presaging ominous developments in US-Iran relations going forward.
Within this context, the Gulf states face a predicament as they want to ensure that relations with the US remain stable under Trump 2.0 while Netanyahu is forced to halt the offensive in Gaza and Gulf-Iran rapprochement continues on its present trajectory. The Gulf states are in the midst of adopting multi-vectored foreign policies, implementing national economic visions, and de-escalating tensions with Iran, hence, they are unlikely to welcome an escalation in US pressure against Iran with the fear of Iran lashing out and accusing them of siding with Trump and ultimately thwarting the Gulf-Iran détente. Trump will have to appreciate that the current situation is different from that during his previous administration; the Gulf states have other priorities and ambitions and have steered in the direction of diversification, with Gulf-Sino relations strengthening in the process. The Gulf states have a heavy hand now when it comes to Trump and it remains to be seen whether Trump and his officials appreciate Gulf considerations or run roughshod over them which will be extremely dangerous for the course of US-Gulf relations and may also force the Gulf states to look further East toward China which will further strain US-Gulf relations as Trump is expected to accelerate the US economic, technological and geopolitical competition against China. In sum, further turbulence is expected in the region under Trump 2.0, with Netanyahu set free of any restraints. Moreover, the meeting between Israel’s Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer and Trump and Jared Kushner was perceived as Netanyahu providing the blueprint for his escalation strategy in Gaza and Lebanon before Trump’s inauguration and setting in motion plans after January, especially when it comes to Iranian proxies in Syria and Iraq and determining Trump’s plan regarding Iran, with no sanctioning of strikes on Iranian nuclear and oil sites at the moment, but this could change if Iran retaliates once Trump is in power, altering US-Iran-Israel dynamics as well as those of the region altogether.
