The June 2025 Iran Case File (ICF), published by the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah), provides an in-depth assessment of Iran’s domestic developments and regional position during a period marked by escalating conflict. The ICF is structured into three sections: internal developments, Iran-Arab interactions and Iran’s international relations and strategic outlook.
On the domestic front, the Israeli-US attacks on the country unleashed cascading events both within the corridors of power and society. The backlash also included an ideological dimension, with some senior Iranian clerics issuing fatwas for the assassination of President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu.
On the Iran-Arab level, the brief but intense war between Iran and Israel, compounded by US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, had a significant impact across the region. The conflict extended beyond Iran and Israel, involving several Arab countries and drawing in the broader Arabian Gulf. The ICF highlights three core areas: Iran’s strained but ongoing reconciliation process with the Gulf states, the Houthis’ calculated involvement in support of Iran and the war’s destabilizing effect on Syria.
In the sphere of Iran’s global relations, the war marked a turning point —especially with the United States — as tensions reached unprecedented levels. The confrontation may influence Europe’s stance, particularly that of the E3 (France, Germany and the UK), which holds diplomatic leverage to press Iran toward compromise, especially regarding its nuclear program.
Meanwhile, Türkiye adopted a cautious position, shaped by complex factors, including its regional aspirations, security concerns and diplomatic balancing. The ICF explores these developments through key questions: What are the consequences of the US targeting of Iranian nuclear facilities? How will Europe react in the aftermath of the 12 day war? What lies behind Türkiye’s careful response? Does this latest round of confrontation between Iran and Israel signal a prolonged phase of military tension?
Click here to access the PDF version of the ICF.
