The International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah) has issued the Iran Case File (ICF) for November and December 2025, offering general readers and researchers in particular, an accurate description of the period under observation and analysis, aiming to diagnose the Iranian situation and assess its various conditions and interactions.
The ICF comprises three sections: first, developments in Iran’s domestic affairs; second, Iranian‑Arab interactions; and third, Iran’s relations with regional and international powers.
Regarding developments in Iran’s domestic affairs, the Iranian interior witnessed during November and December numerous developments on the political, economic, military, social and ideological levels. Politically, the most prominent was the return of protest momentum to the Iranian scene at a time when the country faces serious threats of renewed war with the United States and Israel; militarily, December saw a restructuring of the military leadership through several new appointments after the losses of the 12‑Day War within the leadership; and ideologically, the fatwa of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani favoring avoidance of praying behind imams receiving government salaries was understood as pressure on Iran‑funded actors inside Iraq and also on the Iranian establishment in favor of clerics supported by Najaf.
As for Iranian interactions in the Arab environment, they were marked by significant developments and important events during these two months. In Iraq, the features of the various electoral alliances — Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish — participating in the 2025 parliamentary elections were examined, along with interpretations of their results, shares and implications. In Syria, Iran’s shift — after a year since the fall of Bashar al‑Assad’s regime and its inability to rely on the state as a traditional ally — was highlighted, moving from direct control to managing a flexible, sustained influence. In the Yemen file, the pivotal phase of restructuring and reorganizing the legitimate government was analyzed following the military coup by the UAE‑backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) forces in Hadramawt and Al‑Mahrah, and the decisive Saudi position toward it.
Regarding Iran’s interactions with international powers, stagnation continues to dominate Iran’s relations with the United States, amid the Trump administration’s aspirations to reap strategic gains from Iran after the significant decline in its regional influence, in addition to the internal pressures facing the establishment and the heavy constraints imposed by US sanctions on the Iranian economy.
