As the world navigates a period of profound geopolitical transformation — marked by shifting alliances, growing polarization and intensifying regional and global conflicts — the international spotlight turned to Kuala Lumpur on May 27, 2025. There, a historic and unprecedented trilateral summit was held, bringing together the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)[1] and China — three major players in the global political and economic order.
The summit took place amid heightened international tensions and in the wake of two key events: the 46th ASEAN Summit on May 26 and the second-ever ASEAN – GCC summit. Together, these gatherings signal a growing momentum for new international alignments and efforts to shape a more balanced and multipolar global system.
This report explores the wider significance of the summit by addressing key questions: Why is this trilateral meeting seen as a catalyst for a new phase in the Global South’s role in global affairs? What are the implications for Asia’s emerging powers in shifting governance to a multipolar order? Why have these influential actors turned to trilateral cooperation as a new model for international engagement? What significance and strategic weight do the three parties carry in international affairs? And, crucially, what are the concrete gains and challenges facing this trio-alliance as it charts an ambitious new course for regional and global cooperation?
The Tripartite Summit — Background and Driving Factors
It is important to clarify from the outset that the trilateral summit in Kuala Lumpur is not simply a continuation of the bilateral framework established during the Gulf–ASEAN summit held in Riyadh in October 2024. Instead, it marks the launch of a new model in international diplomacy—one that sets a precedent for building multilateral partnerships among influential regional and global players. This approach underscores a shared commitment by the GCC states, ASEAN, and China to reframe the dynamics of global cooperation.
Unlike previous formats, this summit introduces a broader strategic vision rooted in collective action and mutual benefit. Its timing and structure reflect evolving priorities in international relations, especially amid growing calls for more inclusive and balanced global governance. Several key factors have driven the convening of this trilateral summit, explored below.
International Polarization:
The international system is currently navigating a turbulent period marked by sharp global polarization. Major powers are engaging in fierce competition to either maintain or challenge the existing world order — employing economic, diplomatic and ideological tools of influence while largely avoiding direct military confrontation. This rivalry often takes the form of strategic pressure, selective engagement, or even temporary alignment on contentious issues.
This dynamic is particularly evident in the standoff between Washington and Beijing. The United States is attempting to reclaim its global dominance through sweeping economic policies, including measures that have disrupted both allies and rivals, contributing to international instability. Meanwhile, China is promoting a vision of a multipolar world order as a counterweight to US hegemony.
In response, regional alliances such as the Gulf states and ASEAN are increasingly wary of aligning too closely with any single global axis. Instead, they are exploring alternative paths rooted in diplomacy, multilateralism, and diversified partnerships to safeguard their long-term interests.
One major concern raised at the recent summit was Washington’s unilateral imposition of steep tariffs. Leaders from the export-driven ASEAN bloc voiced serious alarm over US tariffs ranging from 32% to 49%, underscoring fears that such economic policies could undermine regional stability and global trade norms.
Ambiguous Regional and Global Landscape:
The regional and global landscape is increasingly clouded by uncertainty, driven by mounting instability. Institutions once expected to manage global conflicts are proving ineffective in resolving crises — from the Middle East to Eastern Europe —leading to severe disruptions in global supply chains, international shipping, trade flows and the development of cross-border infrastructure projects.
In light of these challenges, key nations are seeking new frameworks for cooperation that expand their strategic maneuverability and reduce reliance on traditional power structures. This environment presents a timely opportunity for greater coordination between regional blocs such as the Gulf and ASEAN — coalitions within the Global South that are well-positioned to safeguard their interests, amplify their global influence and mitigate the impact of current uncertainties.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the urgent need for the Global South to adopt fresh, independent approaches to cooperation. He advocates for partnerships that respond directly to the region’s vast challenges, grounded in a shared vision for a common future — one that operates outside the shadow of dominant global powers.
Deepening Presence on the Global Stage:
Leaders from both the GCC and ASEAN, along with China, have expressed a shared interest in deepening their presence on the global stage by accelerating efforts to diversify trade networks. This push aims to advance foreign policy goals more efficiently while countering the effects of unilateral trade measures that have disrupted the foundations of global commerce.
In this context, GCC Secretary-General Jassim Mohammed al-Budaiwi highlighted the rapid growth in trade between the Gulf and ASEAN. In 2023 alone, bilateral trade in goods reached approximately $122 billion, with Gulf exports to ASEAN totaling $76 billion and ASEAN exports to the Gulf amounting to $46 billion. Meanwhile, ASEAN’s economic ties with China continue to strengthen, as the bloc maintains its strategic neutrality amid US-China tensions. China has become ASEAN’s fourth-largest source of foreign direct investment, trailing only the United States, Japan and the European Union (EU).
The recent summit marked a significant step toward enhancing collective influence and recalibrating global economic power dynamics. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang described it as a groundbreaking moment in regional economic cooperation. Notably, China, in coordination with host nation Malaysia, played a central role in organizing the summit, viewing it as a key opportunity to engage nations that have positioned themselves between Washington and Beijing.
The summit followed Chinese President Xi Jinping’s April 2025 tour of several ASEAN states aligned with the United States, during which he called for a renewed sense of unity within the “Asian family” and emphasized the need to amplify Asia’s global voice. These efforts reflect Beijing’s broader strategy to push back against Washington’s attempts to contain China and reshape the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.
Significance and Influence of Summit Participants
The summit drew significant global attention as it brought together three major Asian blocs — the GCC, ASEAN and China — that collectively wield substantial influence over both regional and global political and economic dynamics. Their convergence revived longstanding assertions among Western analysts that the 21st century is shaping up to be an “Asian century,” particularly as Asia’s economic rise accelerates. Projections indicate that by 2040, the continent could contribute more than half of the world’s GDP.
The Gulf and ASEAN blocs, alongside China, stand out as some of the most dynamic and stable economic regions globally, boasting robust growth indicators and increasingly influential roles on the world stage. These groupings have managed to forge peaceful, prosperous paths that demonstrate their capacity to shape global developments independently.
In his opening address, Kuwaiti Crown Prince Sheikh Sabah al-Khaled al-Sabah emphasized the vast potential of the Gulf and ASEAN regions, noting their combined geographic reach, demographic strength, and strategic significance. He stressed that such qualities equip them to play a vital role amid the complex global security challenges that demand new models of cooperation and strategic partnerships.
The combined GDP of the 16 countries making up the Gulf and ASEAN blocs stands at nearly $6 trillion, with a total population of approximately 740 million. When factoring in China’s economy and population, the scale of their collective influence becomes even more striking. Together, the three Asian players represent an economic power base of over $24 trillion — more than 22% of global GDP — and a population exceeding 2.14 billion, accounting for roughly 27% of the world’s population.
Weight and Standing of the Gulf States:
The Gulf states have emerged as a balancing actor in the context of shaping the future of the international order, increasingly viewed by global powers as crucial to maintaining regional and global balance. Their growing geopolitical relevance stems from their central role in security arrangements, post-conflict reconstruction, and initiatives that promote stability and peace — making them an indispensable force in the evolving contest for global leadership.
Economically, the Gulf countries hold a prominent position on the world stage. According to Global SWF, they control sovereign wealth assets valued at $4.9 trillion — approximately 37% of global sovereign wealth — cementing their status as some of the world’s most influential investors. Their strategic importance is further underscored by their vast energy resources: the region is home to 30% of the world’s proven oil reserves and 20% of natural gas reserves, according to the International Energy Agency.
With a combined GDP of $2.2 trillion (IMF figures), the Gulf states have also deepened their investments in vital Western sectors and play a central role in maintaining the integrity of global trade and logistics networks. Their strategic location, robust infrastructure and ongoing efforts to diversify beyond oil revenue have made them a key node in global supply chains and a vital contributor to the resilience of the international economy as illustrated in Figure 1 below.
Figure 1: Economies of Gulf Countries in 2025
Data Source: IMF
ASEAN’s Importance:
ASEAN’s strategic location in Southeast Asia places it at the geographic heart of the ongoing power contest between the United States and China in the Indo-Pacific, reinforcing its geopolitical and economic significance. Countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore are recognized as advanced economic hubs, helping to anchor the region’s broader growth trajectory.
By 2024, ASEAN’s collective GDP is estimated at around $4 trillion, placing the bloc among the largest economies in the world. It ranks as a key engine of global economic growth, following the likes of the United States, China, Germany, Japan, India, and the United Kingdom. ASEAN also plays a central role in international trade, serving as a critical supplier of raw materials and a major trading partner for leading global economies, while continuing to attract substantial investment from both regional and international players.
Several member states — particularly Malaysia and Thailand — have evolved into global manufacturing centers, becoming leading producers of high-tech goods such as advanced electronics, automobiles, and semiconductors. Meanwhile, emerging economies within the bloc — including Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar and Vietnam —have adopted reform strategies to transition away from centrally planned economies. Their integration into ASEAN has enabled them to participate more fully in regional supply chains, contributing to the bloc’s overall economic dynamism and reinforcing its status as a pillar of the global economy.
Table 1: Comparison Between the GCC and ASEAN Based on Specifically Chosen Indicators
| Criteria | The GCC | ASEAN |
| Establishment and Objectives | Established in 1981, with the aim of coordinating and integrating member states across all sectors and moving collectively toward unity. The Gulf states are highly similar and inclined toward integration, making the bloc a valuable model for regional cooperation. | Established in 1967 to strengthen economic relations and accelerate growth by fostering developed, prosperous, strong and influential economies within the global system. ASEAN countries are closely tied to major global economies like China, the US, Germany, Japan and others. |
| Member states | 6 countries: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain. | 10 countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar, Brunei. |
| GDP in 2024 | Approx. $2.2 trillion. For comparison, the GDP of North Africa is around $900 billion. The GCC’s GDP represents about 2% of global GDP. | Approx. $3.4 trillion. Comparable to the GDP of the EU (nearly $20 trillion). ASEAN’s GDP represents about 3% of global GDP. |
| Largest Member State | The largest economy in the group is Saudi Arabia. It is also the biggest in terms of the area, population, economy and influence. | The largest member state in terms of area, population, economy and influence is Indonesia. |
Source: IMF data compiled by Rasanah.
China’s Importance:
Leading geopolitical theorists widely regard China as a fully capable global power, with a comprehensive set of tools that make it a central actor on the international stage. The United States sees Beijing as both a primary competitor and a serious challenger to its global leadership, particularly as China continues to expand its influence and assert itself in shaping the future international order. US President Donald Trump has openly acknowledged China’s capacity to compete and potentially reshape global dynamics.
Economically, China ranks as the world’s second-largest economy — though some Western metrics already consider it the largest — and it remains a core member of the G20 and a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. Its economic and political weight have made it a credible alternative pole in a rapidly shifting global landscape, especially as it has demonstrated resilience and strategic leverage, including in trade disputes such as its standoff with Washington over tariffs. That confrontation eventually led both sides to return to the negotiating table, underscoring China’s growing diplomatic and economic clout.
China also maintains strong and strategic relations with both the GCC and ASEAN, viewing them as key partners in its efforts to foster a multipolar global order. Its participation in the recent summit with the two blocs significantly enhanced its global diplomatic presence and added further momentum to the Gulf and ASEAN’s shared goal of promoting international equilibrium through diversified partnerships as Figure 2 below indicates.
Successes of the Summit Participants
Figure 2: The ASEAN Summit 2025
Data Source: ASEAN, GCC-STAT.
One of the summit’s most significant outcomes was the emergence of a new framework for multilateral cooperation — an evolving model of partnership that could serve as a foundation for maintaining regional and global equilibrium. This approach aims to protect and advance Asian interests while allowing key players to influence the direction of international affairs, especially at a time when major powers are intensifying efforts to dominate global decision-making structures.
There are other successes, including:
The Core Summit Outcomes:
The summit’s final communiqué outlined a series of outcomes that reflect a unified commitment by China, the Gulf states, and ASEAN to expand avenues of cooperation in line with their rising economic influence on the global stage. The document established a framework for collaboration grounded in mutual respect, shared responsibility, and a joint vision for a peaceful and sustainable future.
Leaders from the three parties pledged to intensify efforts across several strategic domains. These included backing the World Trade Organization, fast-tracking the implementation of the third phase of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area and advancing negotiations for a free trade agreement between the GCC and China. They also emphasized the importance of strengthening joint supply chains, launching a regional business council, and supporting China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
The communiqué highlighted plans to develop global logistics corridors and expand cooperation in key emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, smart city development and halal food production. Ensuring maritime security was also identified as a shared priority, underscoring the parties’ commitment to preserving regional stability and safeguarding essential trade routes.
The final statement of the summit also underscored a shared stance among China, the Gulf states, and ASEAN on the Palestinian issue — marking a rare convergence that adds weight to Arab, Gulf and international efforts to pressure Israel to halt its military operations. The declaration called unequivocally for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, condemned attacks targeting Palestinian civilians, and urged the swift delivery of humanitarian aid. It also emphasized the need to uphold the Geneva Conventions and the principles of international humanitarian law.
The statement made specific reference to the advisory opinion issued by the International Court of Justice in July 2024, which called for an end to the illegal presence of Israeli occupation in Palestinian territories. It also cited the recent United Nations resolution backing full Palestinian membership, reaffirmed support for a two-state solution based on the 1967 borders, and endorsed the Saudi-Norwegian-European initiative aimed at bolstering the Palestinian state’s status on the international stage.
The summit concluded with an agreement to translate the joint declaration into practical outcomes through trilateral cooperation mechanisms, and the participants welcomed the decision to hold the next Asia Cooperation Dialogue summit in Doha.
Investment in Commonalities:
The Gulf and ASEAN regions are bound by longstanding historical and cultural ties, most notably through Islam, which serves as a unifying element across many of their societies. China, too, is home to a significant Muslim population, particularly among the Uyghur community, estimated to number in the millions. The discovery of oil in the Arabian Gulf during the 20th century further deepened connections between the Gulf and ASEAN countries, spurring migration flows and leading to the settlement of many ASEAN nationals in Gulf states.
In this context, the summit offers a vital opportunity for Asia’s emerging and promising economies to reinforce and expand these interlinked relations. For many Asian countries, investing in the Gulf’s oil sector has become a strategic priority to ensure energy security and unlock new economic opportunities. On the other hand, Gulf states see this cooperative model as a cornerstone of their broader economic diversification strategies, aiming to go beyond traditional energy exports. They are particularly keen on enhancing partnerships with ASEAN and China in sectors such as renewable energy, reflecting a shared vision for sustainable development and long-term economic transformation.
The two key associations, whose bilateral trade reached nearly $137 billion in 2022, have successfully deepened their ties with China — currently the Gulf states’ leading trading partner in critical sectors such as energy, technology, and infrastructure. In 2023 alone, trade in goods between China and the Gulf states exceeded $298 billion. Additionally, China’s trade with ASEAN reached approximately $234 billion in just the first quarter of 2025, highlighting its pivotal role in strengthening trilateral relations.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which runs through many Gulf and ASEAN countries, is seen as a vital channel for enhancing connectivity and economic integration among the three parties. The summit’s final statement also underscored cooperation in the halal food industry — a growing sector with shared standards and increasing demand. Furthermore, income diversification strategies, tourism and cultural exchange have emerged as promising areas of collaboration. With the rise of tourism and efforts to create appealing tourist destinations, inter-regional travel is set to expand, serving not only economic interests but also acting as a bridge among cultures and peoples across Asia.
Enhancing Maritime Security:
The new cooperative framework significantly enhances security coordination among the Gulf states, ASEAN countries, and China, particularly in addressing maritime challenges in key strategic waterways such as the Straits of Malacca and Hormuz —and most crucially, the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea. These chokepoints are vital for the uninterrupted flow of strategic commodities, especially oil and gas, to industrialized economies like those of ASEAN and China. Notably, China maintains an active naval presence in the Red Sea, reflecting its deepening engagement in maritime security.
This arrangement also bolsters the protection of international trade routes for vessels traveling from Asia to the Middle East, Europe, and the Americas. Given the growing dependence of ASEAN and Chinese economies on Middle Eastern —particularly Arabian Gulf — energy supplies, such collaboration is increasingly critical. Moreover, the framework strengthens the three parties’ collective efforts to promote stability in broader regions including the Middle East, East Asia, and the Indian Ocean — all of which are intrinsically linked to the security of the Arabian Gulf.
There is also an existing foundation for this cooperation: forces from certain ASEAN and Gulf countries already participate in the Combined Maritime Forces, a 34-nation naval partnership tasked with ensuring the security of shipping lanes in the Gulf, Arabian Sea and Red Sea.
Completing a Full Cycle of an Integrated Economic Chain:
The tripartite partnership among the Gulf states, ASEAN countries and China represents the completion of an integrated industrial, market and capital chain across Asia. China contributes as a leading industrial powerhouse with a vast consumer base; ASEAN brings abundant natural and human resources, a growing market, and a prime geographic location; and the Gulf states offer significant capital, vast energy reserves, and a strategic position that facilitates industrial investment, infrastructure development and logistics operations.
This alignment elevates the cooperative model from a framework of interconnected blocs to a more cohesive unified Asian platform capable of establishing shared rules and executing large-scale, continent-wide initiatives. Notably, there are concrete and ongoing efforts to scale up this cooperation. In the field of artificial intelligence, partnerships have emerged that reflect serious tripartite engagement. Chinese tech giant Alibaba, for instance, has launched its SeaLLMs model in ASEAN, while DeepSeek has begun working with a Saudi digital data center linked to Aramco in Dammam. Similarly, Lenovo is setting up a production center for AI devices in Saudi Arabia, and other Chinese firms have started building factories in Riyadh as part of the “Made in Saudi Arabia” initiative.
Clean energy presents another promising domain of collaboration. The Gulf countries’ ambition to expand into renewable energy aligns with ASEAN’s growing demand in this sector. This mutual interest lays the groundwork for a broad, strategic partnership in sustainable development, further reinforcing the vision of a greener and more interconnected Asia under the new cooperative framework.
Averting the Trap of Sharp Polarization:
The new cooperative formula enables the Gulf and ASEAN countries to steer clear of the intense polarization imposed by the global rivalry between major powers, particularly China and the United States. Rather than being forced to take sides, the framework allows these countries to maintain a balanced approach in their relations with both powers.
This shared predicament — navigating between two competing global actors — has encouraged both associations to fortify their regional economies by resisting pressure to align exclusively with one side. Instead, they are increasingly opting to prioritize their national security agendas and pursue partnerships based on a pragmatic matrix of national interests.
The Challenges Facing Tripartite Cooperation
Despite the summit’s significance — reflected in its ambitious agenda, the stature of its participants, the outcomes it produced, and the potential successes that could pave the way for a new model of inter-cooperation — a number of challenges still stand in the way of deepening joint collaboration among the three parties. Chief among these challenges are:
Outstanding Issues Among the Participants:
There are serious disputes between China and ASEAN countries regarding sovereignty over the South China Sea. These disagreements cannot be overlooked in the future of their bilateral relations, and the current level of cooperation is insufficient to resolve them — especially as Beijing continues to increase its military presence in the area. This is part of the broader struggle with Washington for control over the Indo-Pacific region and the battle for global leadership.
China understands that conceding sovereignty in the South China Sea would play into US strategies of encirclement, giving the United States significant leverage to pressure China’s economic security. The sea is critical for China, as the majority of its foreign trade passes through it, and it also supplies essential energy needed to sustain China’s massive industrial output. Losing control over this maritime region would endanger the lifeblood of China’s economy.
Both Washington and Beijing recognize that dominance over the South China Sea is key to achieving global economic hegemony. Control over this crucial trade route is seen as the primary factor determining which power will lead the global economy — and thus become the dominant superpower of the 21st century, according to leading strategic analysts. For China, its military presence in the South China Sea is therefore not only a matter of national security but also a vital geopolitical imperative.
Map 1: Maritime Dispute Between China and ASEAN in the South China Sea
Source: Asharq Al-Awsat
The Difficulty of Adhering to the Policy of Neutrality:
Many of the participating countries find it difficult to avoid the sharp polarization driven by major powers. Most maintain strong trade relations with China, while others have security ties with the United States or wish for the United States to maintain its influence in the region.
Among ASEAN countries, there is considerable concern about China’s growing military presence in the South China Sea, alongside Beijing’s use of economic leverage to pressure them into avoiding escalations in the area. There is also significant uncertainty regarding China’s so-called debt trap diplomacy, which it allegedly employs to influence ASEAN countries that maintain strong relations with the United States and its allies. China’s investments in the technology sector and its potential impact on ASEAN national security further exacerbate these worries.
Similarly, some Arab and Gulf countries prefer to keep the US military presence in the Middle East as a means to preserve the regional security balance and to participate in collective security arrangements — arrangements that certain regional powers with geopolitical ambitions often try to undermine.
The Future of Tripartite Cooperation
Considering the aforesaid, it can be said that this summit is opening a new chapter in international cooperation. While it is common for groups of countries to form blocs within specific regional frameworks — a challenging task given their differences — the summit’s innovation lies in establishing a tripartite cooperative formula that brings together regional groups and their connections with countries. This new model will likely:
Strengthen the influence and voice of the Global South and developing countries in international affairs: By expanding BRICS, expanding the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and deepening convergence between the Gulf states and ASEAN, thereby fostering a global cooperation model for the Global South.
Promote “opportunities for cooperation” over “opportunities for conflict” among the three parties: This aims to enhance investment prospects in peacebuilding across Asian subregions and beyond.
Establish “Asian solutions”: This is against the traditional Western model, emphasizing integration, mutual benefit, complementary advantages, and multilateralism — from Gulf sovereign wealth funds to Southeast Asian industrial zones and China’s manufacturing hubs.
Open promising prospects to craft an Asian consensus with global impact on region-specific issues: This includes conflicts in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, East Asia and the Indian Ocean. It would also link the future of this cooperation to internal factors — such as the quality of interstate relations amid conflicts—and external factors like international influences on foreign policies, encouraging the Gulf states and ASEAN to adopt a pragmatic balancing strategy toward each other, the United States and China.
China is expected to play a role in strengthening cooperation between the Gulf and ASEAN within the new cooperative formula — unless its interests are threatened if the two associations pursue cooperation at the expense of Chinese interests. This is especially relevant given China’s enormous economic influence in ASEAN, its strong relationship with the Gulf states, and the ineffectiveness of the US strategy to contain it in the Indo-Pacific, considering the United States’ preoccupation with the Russia-Ukraine war and the conflict in Gaza.
ASEAN’s confidence in the United States’ ability to provide protection to its allies has been shaken, particularly after the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan, its failure to deter Chinese military expansion in the South China Sea to the satisfaction of ASEAN countries and the strong Chinese responses to the separatist ambitions of the US-backed Taiwan.
[1] The organization includes Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar and Brunei. ASEAN is an intergovernmental organization that aims to promote economic, political, and social cooperation within the region. The organization was formed in 1967 and has since expanded to include all 10 of the listed countries.
