US Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley was placed on leave without pay in June and his government-issued clearance was suspended on security breach allegations. His case is under review, but his temporary removal signals brewing tensions over the Iranian nuclear file that he overlooked at the US State Department. It is reported that the FBI is now investigating Malley’s handling of classified material. It is unclear if the investigation encompasses other matters and there is no indication to suggest that Malley’s alleged handling of classified material is considered to be a criminal matter at this point.
Malley can no longer access classified US government information according to sources, despite previously leading the Biden administration’s indirect talks with Tehran after the Trump administration withdrew in 2018 from the 2015 nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
In US policy circles, Malley who also helped craft the JCPOA under the Obama administration, is viewed to be an Iranian sympathizer. He frequently met with Iran’s negotiators then, and in early 2023, he held talks with the Iranian ambassador to the UN to revive the JCPOA. Republican senators and Israeli officials targeted Malley because of his purported softness and leaning toward Iran. Republican senators and the powerful head of the House Foreign Affairs Committee Representative Michael McCaul alleged that Malley may have mishandled classified documents and misled the US Congress. Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett meanwhile refused to meet with Malley in 2021. According to Republican Senator Bill Hagerty, Malley had contact with extremist groups like Hamas and he favored normalizing relations with organizations like Hezbollah, which is designated by the United States as a terror outfit.
Malley insisted on talking to Iran despite the country nearing the nuclear threshold and offered wide-ranging concessions to Tehran to recommit to curbing its nuclear enrichment activities. Iran is reportedly less than two weeks away from producing enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb and could produce a nuclear weapon in “several more months.” Malley may have supported a handover of $17 billion as part of a sanctions relief package to Tehran in exchange for temporary restrictions on its nuclear program. Hagerty and over 30 US senators are now working on a new bill to provide Congress with the power to vote on any sanctions relief provided to Iran.
Tehran’s reaction to Malley’s suspension has been muted. Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said, “We do not comment on the internal issues of other countries.” He continued, “What is important are the policies of countries, [in this case] specifically the US and not the people who represent the US government.” He further stated, “It seems that every individual executes the policies of his own [political] system.” But Tehran has reason to be concerned. US National Security Council official Brett McGurk is now in charge of the nuclear talks. In June, he held indirect talks in Oman with Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri-Kani, and warned of the consequences if a deal was not reached.
Malley’s removal could also have wider implications. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and his push to engage with the Iranian nuclear file through the prism of US policy to contain both Tehran and China’s rise to power, clashes with Malley’s overt desire to accommodate Tehran. Sullivan is the Biden administration’s rising star and unlike Malley, he is tougher on Iran. He has called for a broader nuclear deal that would curtail Iranian influence in a host of arenas. On the other hand, Malley was keen to build a step-by-step agreement with Tehran. Malley was also criticized for being content with white paper exchanges, indirect engagements and unwritten deals with Iran, whereas Sullivan wants the Iranian side to show stronger commitments to its promises.
But Sullivan’s path forward will not be easy. He advocates for working with US allies to deter the possible advancement of hostile Iranian power. But those allies are divided on how best to deal with Iran if a strong nuclear deal between Washington and Tehran is not reached. Sullivan also seems to be on better terms with Israel compared to Malley. However, at the same time, he recently said that Israel could be leaking information about the indirect talks being held between the United States and Iran, a step that could compromise the talks.
According to Sullivan, these talks are necessary because it previously did not help that Washington withdrew from the JCPOA back in 2018, leaving the Iranian nuclear program unconstrained. This is why Washington now wants to keep Iran engaged to finalize a nuclear deal while also reminding Tehran that it would be a mistake not to commit to a peaceful nuclear program.
It remains to be seen if Iran will accept any new terms including possibly an informal or unwritten one that is being referred to as a “political ceasefire.” Iran preferred the terms of the JCPOA, which did not hinder its longer-term nuclear enrichment activities. At the same time, to establish peaceful relations with the West while the Democrats are still in power in Washington and to build trust in the context of its renewed diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia, Iran might accept new terms if it can protect its peaceful nuclear infrastructure and in return for US guarantees that those terms would not be easily violated.
Meanwhile, Sullivan could try to show that the Biden administration will adopt a tough stance on the nuclear talks with Iran. But, Washington has yet to publicly articulate a clear strategy about how it will build an effective deal with Iran with or without Malley on board. Additionally, it will have to state whether such a deal, if it were to stand the test of time, would also involve making concessions to Iran.
