The Iranian-American former official in the U.S. Secretary Department, Ray Takeya has provided several advises for the President-elect Donald Trump to avoid what his predecessors’ Iran mistakes.
According to Politico Website, Takeya mentioned that the first lesson is that Iran should be treated as a unitary nation-state and not a collection of hard-liners and moderates that American policy can manipulate to its advantage. The entire notion of Iranian factionalism must be reconsidered in the aftermath of the 2009 revolt, when the theocratic state purged the reformers from its midst. It is too facile to suggest that Iran has arrived at the age of internal consensus, but the rivalries that once divided the clerical state are less urgent and less acute today. On core issues of regional hegemony and consolidation of clerical autocracy, Iran has arrived at an agreement as both Khamenei and Rouhani share the same objectives, even though their tactics may at times differ.
Takeya added that the second important lesson is that Iran is susceptible to a threat of force. During the hostage crisis when there was much talk in Tehran about putting the American diplomats on trial, Carter secretly warned Iran of possible retaliation if it proceeded with such steps. All talk of trials soon ceased. And it was the Carter officials themselves that were trying to induce Iran into ending the hostage crisis by intimating that should Ronald Reagan be elected he may approach the issue entirely differently—and more aggressively. The use of the “Reagan card” by the Carter White House was instrumental in ending the crisis. In dealing with clerical oligarchs, threats succeed, blandishments don’t.
America’s momentary military triumph in displacing the Taliban and Saddam Hussein unsettled the clerical regime, and Iran quickly suspended its nuclear program in 2003. By 2005, America set aside its forceful posture and sought to engage Iran in stabilizing Iraq and settling the nuclear issue. Iran at ease with its revived fortunes responded by accelerating its nuclear activities and lacerating American forces in Iraq with its lethal Shia militias.
Finally, the point that many White Houses have missed is that Iran is a revolutionary state whose entire identity is invested in its hostility toward the West. For the clerical rulers, resumed relations with America is itself an existential threat.
So what does all this mean for Donald Trump? The Trump administration would be wise to craft an actual Iran policy and not just a series of arms control proposals like those that obsessed its two predecessors. The United States should once more impose crippling sanctions on Iran and isolate it from the global economy. In the meantime, by working with Arab allies, Washington can push back on Iran in the Middle East.
