While all politicians and political analysts in Iran and abroad engaged in laying perceptions of post-Khamenei, relying on his old age chronic illness, as well as the election of a new Assembly of Experts, everybody supported the claim that the council will choose the third leader.
In these conditions, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Leader of the Islamic Republic, who is expected to hear the news of his death, suddenly declares a propaganda against both the United States and President Hassan Rawhani in addition to nuclear agreement with Western countries in his annual speech in Eid Nowruz (Persian New year) and the annual speech at Imam Reza’s shrine in Mashhad.
The motive of attack’s appointment
There is no doubt that these two shocking speeches that Khamenei delivered in turn, were not fortuitous, but outcomes of accumulated political interactions over the past years. However, something gave him motivation to adopt this conduct. It is probably because of the propaganda that US President Obama manipulated to declare in contemporary with the beginning of the Iranian year. The aim behind it was to send congratulations to Iranian people boasting to celebrate the Iranian festival from inside the White House and to dine the (Haft Sin), which offers them seven food types their names begin with the letter (Seine) inside the White House.
In this year, he sent a message to the Iranian youth congratulating them of the nuclear deal, and promising them to obtain an economic boom in Iran. The deal covered to the lifting of sanctions, which aims to increase jobs and change lifestyle in Iran.
Strangely, Khamenei did not receive this message as a call for rapprochement with Iran, but it had been oriented directly from the US president to the Iranian citizen and especially youth. It is possible to label the message as a call for penetration and not reconciliation. He described it as a perfect form of the American deceive, while the White House celebrating Nowruz Iran American politicians led by US Treasury Secretary continues the implementation of sanctions policy on Iran through circuitous routes (a reference to a decision of fining Iran $ 10 billion for the benefit of Sep. 11 victims), and said that America is trying to deprive Iran from the nuclear deal’s positive results.
The attack on Hassan Rawhani
The speech of Eid Nowruz usually includes the evaluation of government performance, and often expressed his satisfaction about it. This year, Khamenei attacked the economic performance of Rawhani and stating that it is just writings on papers did not exceed the normal orders in conducting business. However, he did not show any activation of economic creative policy, he is only waiting for what will come out of lifting the economic sanctions on Iran.
Khamenei is already afraid of a change in the nature of the Iranian economy into a consumer economy that bases on spending oil revenues. There is another side of the truth where political partisanship made in Assembly of Experts after the failure of both Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi and Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi to get a seat on the Council of Experts and Rafsanjani obtaining the highest number of votes followed by Rawhani. This process reflects a reasonable doubt of Iranian voters desire to change the pattern of the supreme leader policy and even the supreme leader himself. It also implies the return of Reformers writers to attack conduct of the supreme leader himself as a dictator dominating all of political life in Iran (writings of Akbar Kenji for example). Attacks prompted Khamenei to a public speech for the members of the Assembly of Experts announcing the need of remaining the revolutionary spirit controlling the Assembly of Experts. He explained that if this spirit extinguished between men of Hawza, there will not remain anything from revolution, and that the Assembly of Experts have to choose the next supreme leader on the basis of the revolutionary creed, with consideration of the conditions or changeable circumstances.
Integration between internal aspirations and American cupidities
By reading the consecutive speeches of Khamenei over last month, I learnt that it is clear that there is merging in Khamenei’s vision between each of aspirations of Rawhani followed by Moderates and Reformers in changing the nature of the Iranian regime. Change will take place partly by intervening in selecting the next Supreme Leader and partly because of the American cupidities to get the full advantages of the nuclear deal without paying the cost of these features.
Vision of Khamenei which bases on Obama’s speech paving the way for the same thesis of Rawhani, that Iran have two only pathways to solve its crisis, either it cooperates with America or be subjected to sanctions. In fact, US pressures and problems that ensue, Rawhani builds his speech on the same introduction with an emphasis on the positive side that the nuclear deal related to the presidency and diplomacy institution of Iran. The Supreme Leader has nothing to do with this, which forms an approach to solute the external isolation suffered by Iran. It also forms another approach to solute all internal problems economically, politically and socially. Adopting this approach Rawhani cloned the shortcut that he coined to express the nuclear deal words (Berjam), a compilation of first letters of the words (Bernameh Jame’ Aghdam Moshtarak), this sentence means, the comprehensive program of joint action. Rawhani stated that there was an internal Bergam must be implemented in Iran to reach the desired results, which called (Bergam 1).
Internal Bergam or Bergam 2 as presented by Rawhani is a program of implementing a national reconciliation that opens up a new prospect of political action, releases the political prisoners and lifts the house arrest from the reform movement leaders. The Bergam 2 also gives hope of the acceptance of diversity and political pluralism, economic growth besides the act of military removal from the political and economic activity.
Therefore, it was normal that Khamenei combines two dangerous things that threaten him, and starts to move with direct attack on the United States, Rawhani, and the illegitimate child, which is the nuclear deal.
Khamenei’s attack on America
Khamenei believes that Iran’s economic prosperity is connected with reconciliation of the United States. That is, the absence of reconciliation, results in self-confidence collapse among Iranian citizens, and then to the collapse of confidence in the national self-value and gradually abandon the fundamentals of national security policy, and will stop supporting peoples that it has been supporting, such as the peoples of Palestine, Yemen and Bahrain.
Khamenei has hinted that the United States has begun to discuss Iranian policies in the Middle East with Iran, which were undiscussable before the signing of the nuclear deal.
Khamenei believes that the United States has suffered enough since the establishment of the Islamic Republic of losing control on Iran; a country with large quantities of oil, natural and human resources, strategic location and regional influence. Therefore, the United States tried to restore its influence in every way pursuing negotiation and reconciliation policies with Iran as a stage of its imperialist and expansion policy. Iran represented the main obstacle in implementing the Greater Middle East scheme where nationalities melt in the crucible of subordination for America, therefore all what America wants is unloading Iran from its content. Therefore Khamenei declared his opposition to these policies showing readiness to cancel the nuclear deal stating that if United States has rallied on lifting the sanctions, as well as Rawhani taking of responsibility to thwart the remaining American plan.
Khamenei’s attack on Rawhani
Khamenei began his attack on Rawhani quoting the words of Javad Zarif, Rawhani’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, ”we could not maintain some red lines”, saying ”when you could stand in front of the enemy, you withdrew and retreated which enabled the enemy to progress and will not stop, the only result of these talks is the absolute loss.
Khamenei mocked of Bergam 1 and Bergam 2 names; he said there would be Bergam 3 and 4 to no end until these Bergams extend to reformulation of the Iranian constitution (referring to the overthrowing of the Islamic Republic Regime).
There is a definite desire by Khamenei to disable Rawhani from implementing his election promises, particularly lifting the house arrest of reform symbols, led by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. He also wants to stop media harassment of Mohammad Khatami, and the inability of Rawhani to implement his vision in foreign policy, because its general lines subject to the directives of Supreme Leader who allows the president to practice Foreign Policy Powers.
Khamenei’s speech was concerned with the weaknesses of the economic performance policies of Rawhani’s government. It seems like wants to state that Rawhani is causing the economic decline, and he should bear the responsibility of deteriorations of standards of livings of Iranian citizens.
Khamenei’s confrontation mechanism (resistance economy)
Khamenei, who has the most if was not all authority switches in the Iranian regime does not want directly to use the authority, He often per forces the other party to perform his policies, the mechanism of Khamenei this time was the resistance economy. Resistance Economy is a term that launched by him versus the Bergam term of Rawhani and Obama he insisted on naming the year of 2016 by the resistance economy year.
Khamenei spent the rest of time of regime in wars against Iraq. As a President of the Republic, he inspires the reality of war economy to cross this juncture to frustrate his enemies schemes. He is now calling for an Iranian economy that is free of importing from abroad, and holding partnerships with foreigners only at an urgent need. Khamenei said that the state that manufactures missiles of two thousand kilometers range at a rate of error in hitting the target does not exceed a few meters, is able to make aircraft engines, power stations and all commodities that it need. Therefore we do not have to fear from sanctions and US pressure, He sees that the state of refraction, which began leaking from some hearts of the regime’s leaders made the enemy feel the ability to put pressure on Iran, he says that the dealings with foreign companies after agreement signing must be coupled with foreign technology settlement in Iran, otherwise we will not allow to implement these agreements, and it will not be any import process occurs if it will harm the domestic production process, as he criticized the hullabaloo about the financial and economic corruption in Iran.
Khamenei thesis has some merit, but there is another aspect, that each economic development has its users and its victims, and the injured is the one who was in control of the situation before the development and cannot integrate with the developments, Khamenei defends Bazaar power (traditional market) , as well as men of Revolutionary Guards who also control the joints of the economic state in Ahmadinejad’s era at the behest of the Supreme Leader, but with Ahmadinejad rebellion on the Supreme Leader in his last year they clung to allegiance for the Supreme Leader, so it was easy for the Supreme Leader to reduce Ahmadinejad’s power and not to take any other position after the end of his term, no doubt that the process of openness on the West will be channeled in interest of Moderates and Reformers forces who entrenched themselves with Hashemi Rafsanjani the engineer of Free Zones economy and pragmatic deal with the West.
The guards’ economic institutions will be damaged in all the productive sectors because of the expansion of import process, contracting and construction sectors. That is to say the sectors of automotive industry and even retail trade sector all of which are controlled by the Guards at the rates of not less than 60% of total activity in Iran. Khamenei would not sacrifice his men and even himself in order to provide an opportunity to join unconditional work with foreign companies, a conduct that will result also an increase of opponents’ strength as well as change the concepts of community. Stern opposition might take place among youth; as if a complete collapse of the Islamic Republic Project. Therefore, he will not hesitate to use fully of his weapons in the parliament and council of determining regime interest. Moreover, he apply the same strategy in the Assembly of Experts, and the last remaining card in his hand is the Basij forces and Revolutionary Guards in the end.
The position of the reformists and the balance of power
In Iran, Remnants of the Reformists consider every step forward as an achievement compared to the situation that they experienced after 2009 events (the repression occurred after Ahmadinejad’s election for the second presidential term).
Reformers believe that there is an achievement in spite of the absolute dictatorship of Khamenei of authority. It is a re-division of the political field in Iran because they see that there are four factions in the political arena. These include Militants with their extreme right of actual control of power. Moderates and Democracy Advocates and finally in the extreme left Putschists who want to revenge from Militants. The two factions of extremism can be neutralized, Moderates and Democracy Advocates through labor unions crowd.
This vision undoubtedly reflects how far Reformists are from reality and there they start from theoretical theses. Thus any labor unions that try support them, Khamenei is the one who calls to maintain domestic production and expand its base and far from the expansion of import, far away from opening the door for foreign companies. And even worse, Rawhani does not listen to experts’ advice that they have made to establish a sort of understanding or liaisons with Khamenei. He just says that there are 22 million voters have chosen him, and he must implement his election program and interventions to prevent the implementation of the program. This conduct looks like a political suicide. If we assume that it is just a tactic intended to meet political media and motivate the masses against the Supreme Leader, it is also not in Rawhani’s interest. It suggests that they attempt to confirm the argument that ”a wise enemy is much better than a crazy friend”.
Why it is the last battle of Khamenei?
Khamenei has fought different battles and won them all, whether in lifetime of Khomeini or after it. The most notably benevolence battle he had against Reformists in Khamenei’s period, in which he used all weapons starting from the armed handle of Basij forces with the Student Forces in University City events. A series of assassinations against intellectuals were committed, freezing of parliamentary action to stop the discussion of press law, and finally overt threat of Revolutionary Guard commanders toward Khatami of liquidation if did not commit to the approach of revolution, also to eject Ahmadinejad from his cloak to dismantle the community-based Reformers.
The battle, which currently formed the battleground is not much different from its predecessor in reasons and motives, but differ in political partisanship and in the vision of other party to the nature of conflict.
Far away from Reformists illusion, the vision of Moderates who are led by Rawhani based on changing the Supreme Leader himself through waiting his death, a doctrine compatible with the Shiite belief, but moderates worked to lock themselves more fully in the Assembly of Experts entrusted with choosing the next Supreme Leader, while seeking to change the economic structure of the Iranian society, that means to deprive Militants from financial support, which attracts large numbers of citizens, hoping to get a share of the national wealth, with aggregation of youth support to strengthen these two trends, while Khamenei has realized the rules of the game early and start beating the twin pillars of this plan, either to change the economic situation, and the partisanship of Moderates in the Assembly of Experts.
If Khamenei defeated in this battle and disqualification Rawhani from the presidential seat in the upcoming elections. Therefore Iran will enter the stage of absolute jurist leadership in every sense of the word of Iranian political literature, and nobody will discuss the Supreme Leader authority whether in Khamenei life period, or in the era of whom Khamenei will choose after. In the case of defeating Khamenei and this is an excluded matter, the next Supreme Leader will permit more openness and will change the nature of regime completely. This is because of the inflexible Iranian regime structure, which prevent to change the behavior and convictions of the Supreme Leader. There is a third possibility of Supreme Leader victory postponement by appointing him as his deputy in his life and adopting the same approach. This is because the survival of Rawhani for a second term with restricted powers in dealing with the West and close the door partly in the face of foreign companies, it is the closest to reality.
Khabar Gazari Tasneem, Nagahi Be Piam Nourozi Rahbar Mo’zam Enkelab Islami, http://soo.gd/AQlK
Sait Aparat, Piam Nourozi Obama Be Monasabet Aghaz Sal_1395, http://soo.gd/fLnY
Radio Farada, Khamenei: Amreka Be Ta’ahodatsh A’amal Nakrdaast, http://soo.gd/WCWgS
BBC Farsi, Nataej Estani Entekhabat Majles va Khabargan, http://soo.gd/EFXI
Site Asr Iran, Sadegh Zebaklam: (Berjam 2) Ya;ni Cheh?, http://soo.gd/M3Uh
Khabar Gazari Tasneem, Nagahi Be Piam Nourozi Rahbar Mo’zam Enkelab Islami, http://soo.gd/AQlK