The International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah) has just released the seventh issue of its Annual Strategic Report (ASR). The first issue was published in December 2016. Rasanah’s annual reports provide in-depth information, statistics, figures, facts, and analyses. The ASR for 2022 distinctively covers wider areas, such as the shifts in Saudi foreign policy, including analyses and forecasts.
The ASR reviews strategic transformations in the international arena and indications of an emerging multipolar global order. The features of this prospective new global order are not very clear – its leadership positions have not been determined yet. In this context, the ASR highlights several strategic issues with consequences in the short and long run. These issues include: the repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine war on international security and the global order, the European impasse and Europe’s response patterns to addressing rising challenges, the Taiwan question and the intensification of Sino-US rivalry in the Indo-Pacific region, the United States and current challenges in the international arena, the crises griping the global economy in light of the disputes between major world powers, global military developments and non-traditional security threats and finally, the crisis facing violent groups and Islamist movements.
The ASR also analyzes strategic transformations and regional rearrangements in the Middle East. It discusses how global developments have impacted the approaches and alliances of key regional and global powers. These powers currently have greater room for maneuver in the Middle East and are able to further enhance their strength in the new global order. In this context, the following topics are discussed: US approaches toward the Middle East in the context of the changing regional and international landscape; exploiting shifts: the dynamism of Turkish foreign policy in several regions; and Israel’s current maelstrom of domestic dilemmas and external challenges.
In the last part, Iranian affairs, the ASR tackles Iran’s internal situation under the Raisi government. The first year of Raisi’s presidency left the country reeling as it faced overwhelming political, economic, social, security, and ideological developments.
The ASR explores how these developments were reflected in Iran’s interactions with its neighbors and its moves in the international arena. In this context, the following topics are discussed: fragile stability: Iran’s internal situation under the Raisi government; fluctuating influence: Iran’s presence in the Arab region in light of regional and international developments; and conducive environment: Iranian moves in the international arena amid rising competition between major powers.