Operation Spiderweb and the Russian Summer Offensive: Escalation, Attrition and the Limits of Diplomacy

https://rasanah-iiis.org/english/?p=13613

ByAhmed al-Sulami

More than three years into the Russia-Ukraine War, the conflict has hardened into a struggle marked by strategic stalemates, attritional warfare and diminishing hopes for a negotiated settlement. What began as a rapid invasion has evolved into a grinding confrontation involving vast resources, shifting frontlines and intensifying reliance on asymmetric tools. Ukraine, facing growing resource constraints and faltering Western support, has increasingly turned to innovation as a means of regaining the initiative. Russia, meanwhile, continues to expand its territorial aims and test the boundaries of escalation. Against this backdrop, Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb and the signs of a renewed Russian summer offensive have added urgency and volatility to an already fragile situation. This report examines the implications of these developments, arguing that they represent a dangerous escalation in a war now defined less by maneuver than by resilience and long-term cost.

On June 1, 2025, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) launched Operation Spiderweb, a covert drone campaign that marked a major escalation in the conflict. The operation targeted five airbases deep within Russian territory that include Murmansk, Ryazan, Irkutsk, Ivanovo and Amur, using low-cost, first-person-view drones. These drones, reportedly smuggled into Russia via civilian trucks and guided by AI for high-precision targeting, struck strategic military assets including Tu-95, Tu-160 and Tu-22M3 bombers, as well as the A-50 airborne early warning system. Ukraine claimed 41 aircraft were hit and 13 destroyed. Western intelligence estimates suggest a more conservative outcome of 20 damaged and 10 destroyed.

The operation demonstrated Ukraine’s capacity to project power deep into Russian territory using inexpensive and scalable technologies. It disrupted Russian strategic bombing capabilities, revealed gaps in airbase defenses and forced a logistical and security rethink within Russia’s military planning. Ukrainian officials framed the operation as a demonstration of resilience and ingenuity in the face of growing battlefield pressure and diminishing international support.

However, the strategic implications extend far beyond the immediate damage inflicted. In response, Russia launched a retaliatory strike involving 472 drones targeting Ukrainian infrastructure across multiple regions. Since the attack, Russian strikes have continued on an almost daily basis, marking a sharp intensification in the tempo and scope of bombardment aimed at degrading Ukraine’s energy systems, logistics hubs and civilian morale. This rapid escalation highlights a potential shift in the conflict’s trajectory. Since the outset of the war, Russia’s aerial campaign has at times been restrained, focusing on infrastructure and military targets while avoiding the kind of large-scale, indiscriminate bombing that characterized earlier conflicts. Operation Spiderweb could alter this pattern. If the Russian leadership views these deep strikes as a new Ukrainian doctrine, it may respond by intensifying bombardment campaigns, widening its list of targets and adopting harsher retaliatory policies.

There is also a growing risk of broader geopolitical fallout. Moscow may interpret such a sophisticated and coordinated attack as being tacitly enabled by NATO or Western intelligence networks. If this perception takes hold, it could accelerate Russia’s withdrawal from existing arms control mechanisms. A key vulnerability lies in the New START Treaty, which obligates both the United States and Russia to visibly display their strategic bombers at designated bases, making them observable via satellite as part of mutual verification procedures. This clause, once seen as a stabilizing measure to prevent miscalculation, may now be viewed in Moscow as a liability, effectively exposing high-value assets to targeting, as demonstrated by the events of June 1. In the wake of Operation Spiderweb, Russia may re-evaluate the strategic wisdom of such transparency, particularly if it believes the information is being exploited to facilitate deep strikes. A decision to suspend or abandon these verification provisions would further erode the fragile framework of strategic trust and increase the risk of misinterpretation during future crises.

These developments occur amid growing evidence that Russia is preparing a large-scale summer offensive. Ukrainian forces have been pushed back from positions near Kursk, and Russian troops are now amassing in Sumy Oblast. President Vladmir Putin has declared the creation of a new buffer zone along the Belgorod and Kursk borders, formalizing an occupation corridor that could reshape the regional military balance. The recent Russian advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a region previously outside declared objectives, further signals an expansion of ambitions. The incursion may be a test of Ukrainian readiness, or a probe designed to stretch already thin defensive lines. It could also mark the beginning of a deeper push toward central Ukraine.

These battlefield developments coincide with growing vulnerabilities within Ukrainian ranks. Field reports suggest Kyiv is struggling to replace combat losses and its capacity to mobilize fresh manpower appears to be under strain. The declining pace of US and European support compounds the problem, leaving Ukrainian forces exposed to both exhaustion and materiel shortages. If Russia can sustain the current tempo, it may achieve a breakthrough during the summer campaign, shifting the operational balance further in its favor.

Against this backdrop, the diplomatic process remains stalled. The timing of Operation Spiderweb, one day before the second round of Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Istanbul, raises questions about how military operations are shaping, or perhaps undermining, negotiations. Regardless of whether the strike was coordinated with diplomatic messaging, it appears to have had little effect on either side’s willingness to compromise. Russia continues to assert its territorial claims and strategic goals without concession, while Ukraine remains firm in its defense of national sovereignty. The conditions for meaningful progress are absent. Diplomatic gestures increasingly resemble symbolic exercises rather than genuine attempts to resolve the conflict.

The war has entered a stage defined by attrition rather than movement. Both sides appear to have accepted that there will be no rapid resolution. For Ukraine, continued resistance is a matter of existential necessity. For Russia, the pursuit of its objectives has become central to the legitimacy of its leadership. In such a scenario, negotiations are unlikely to produce a viable peace framework. Instead, the focus has shifted toward surviving and outlasting the adversary, economically, militarily and politically.

Operation Spiderweb illustrates Ukraine’s ability to innovate tactically under pressure. The use of low-cost drones to strike billion-dollar aircraft is a powerful example of how asymmetrical capabilities are reshaping modern warfare. Yet the operation also underlines the risks of such innovation when conducted in isolation from a coherent strategic framework. By expanding the geographical scope of the war and triggering intensified Russian responses, it may ultimately deepen Ukraine’s vulnerabilities unless matched by renewed international support and a sustainable long-term military posture.

As Russia moves forward with its summer offensive and diplomatic pathways remain blocked, the war appears to be hardening into a prolonged and devastating confrontation. The conflict will be decided not by sudden victories or symbolic operations, but by endurance. Ukraine must find ways to replenish its manpower and secure reliable military backing. Russia must translate tactical gains into durable control without overextending its supply lines or triggering wider instability. For outside actors, including NATO and key regional states, the challenge lies in managing escalation risks while maintaining a balance between pressure and diplomacy. The coming months are likely to be decisive — not only in resolving the conflict, but in determining which side is better positioned to endure its long-term costs. Operation Spiderweb, while tactically impressive, highlights a broader strategic dilemma: bold strikes can shift the narrative temporarily, but they do not change the structure of a war increasingly driven by attrition and geopolitical uncertainty.

Ahmed al-Sulami
Ahmed al-Sulami
Researcher