On May 27, the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and China pledged to “chart a unified and collective path towards a peaceful, prosperous, and just future.”
ASEAN, the GCC and China are home to about 2.15 billion people with a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of $24.87 trillion. With its 27% of global populace and 20% of the world’s gross GDP, diverse geography and vast wealth of natural and mineral resources, the bloc in its own right boasts the potential of an alternative center of power. The Kuala Lumpur summit occurred amidst the unsettling anxiety arising from unilateralism and de-globalization.
In their joint statement, the GCC, ASEAN and China vowed, “We reaffirm our collective resolve to work hand in hand to unleash the full potential of our partnership and ensure that our cooperation translates into tangible benefits for our peoples and societies.”
The ASEAN–GCC declaration sanctioned the Framework of Cooperation (2024–2028) outlining “joint actions and activities in areas of mutual interest across political, security, economic, social, and cultural dimensions.”
The GCC was ASEAN’s seventh largest trading partner worth $130.7 billion, and 16th largest source of foreign direct investment valued at $390.2 million in 2023. If the projected 30% trade growth is realized, it would hit the $180 billion mark by 2032. The first Gulf-Southeast Asia summit held in Riyadh in October 2023 led the blocs to jointly consult with their largest trading partner, China. The trilateral summit was set against the backdrop of US tariff uncertainties and protectionism.
In Kuala Lumpur, the three-way summit agreed to deepen Belt and Road cooperation, enhance connectivity, strengthen economy and trade, industrial and supply chains, agriculture, energy, finance and the digital economy.
“This is a meeting of minds, people who want to develop their countries, who believe in independence, in rights, in democracy and who want to enhance trade, increase investments,” said Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.
Li Qiang, China’s prime minister, noted that the summit raises the prospect to “jointly create a model of global cooperation and development for this era” within an “increasingly complex international environment and a sluggish global economy.” He seconded Confucian-Islamic civilizational dialogue proposed by the ASEAN chair. China will work with “ASEAN and the GCC to strengthen the alignment of development strategies, increase macro policy coordination and deepen collaboration on industrial specialization,” he vowed.
ASEAN, GCC and China also agreed on training and capacity-building in nuclear safety, reactor technology and regulatory frameworks. The Gulf bloc is the fifth-largest external trading partner of the ASEAN with trade between the two soaring to $63 billion in 2024. Malaysia’s trade with the Gulf Arab states registered a 60% percent increase from 2019 to 2024.
Though Beijing is the Gulf states’ largest trading partner, it lost its distinction last year when Washington overtook her as ASEAN’s top export market. With the Trump presidency came exponential rise in tariffs and uncertainty. For the context, President Trump imposed Cambodia with a 49% import duty, Laos 48% and Vietnam 46% in April, which necessitates preferential access to other markets, particularly the affluent Gulf states.
“The US is also the largest source of cumulative foreign direct investment in ASEAN, with total stock reaching nearly $480 billion in 2023 – almost double the combined US investments in China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan,” says Carmelo Ferlito, CEO of the Center for Market Education (CME), a think tank based in Malaysia and Indonesia. Beijing’s trade status with the Gulf states remains unchallenged by a long shot and is likely to consolidate further.
The most tangible and long-term multilateral outcome for the GCC is the prospect of its inclusion in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the 15-member trade pact between China and ASEAN. The southeast Asian bloc would not only conduct a feasibility study but also ink a separate trade agreement with the Arab gulf states.
Unlike the Middle East and South Asia, the ASEAN region is devoid of conflict and upheavals, hence making it a near-perfect partner for the Gulf Arab states. With China entering the multilateral foray, there seems no limit to areas of cooperation in sectors ranging from energy to banking, manpower tourism to transfer of technology.
ASEAN, the GCC and China share the drive to get things done, especially when it comes to economic cooperation. The Arabian bloc’s inclusion in the RCEP is expected to be swift and incredibly beneficial to the three parties involved. For the Gulf states, the prospects of capacity building in nuclear technology will upgrade their bond substantially. When the ASEAN summit reconvenes in November, Malaysia would keenly press for progress on the proactive Gulf and China initiative of Prime Minister Ibrahim.
