When US President Donald Trump reignited his trade offensive against Europe, many feared a repeat of the 2018 tariff wars. This time, however, the European Union (EU) has responded with greater strategic clarity. Caught between the imperatives of retaliation and adaptation, the EU is pursuing a carefully calibrated approach — firm, measured, and above all, united around a long-term vision. Despite internal divisions over short-term tactics — with some member states like France pushing for swift retaliation, and others such as Italy and Hungary favoring a negotiation-first strategy — the EU has ultimately chosen a coordinated and multifaceted response at this pivotal moment.
The EU’s three-pronged strategy — combining calibrated pushback, tactical de-escalation and robust domestic support — reveals not only a maturing geopolitical actor but a bloc increasingly willing to shape the global trade order rather than merely endure its turbulence. These tariffs, targeting key European exports such as automobiles, agricultural goods and industrial products, have reignited transatlantic trade tensions, challenging the EU’s economic resilience and its commitment to multilateralism. The European response reflects a blend of defensive countermeasures, strategic recalibration and an intensified push for self-reliance, all shaped by the lessons of past trade disputes and the realities of a shifting global order.
Trump’s latest wave of tariffs — ranging from 25% on steel and automobiles to a sweeping 10% across-the-board rate — initially seemed like a repeat of past trade policy. But global reactions, especially China’s swift countermeasures (now reaching 125% on some goods), and volatile financial markets may have forced a temporary US retreat. On the very day the EU announced its own countermeasures, Trump reduced his proposed tariff hike and granted the EU a 90-day reprieve before implementing the 20% tariff. In parallel, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a corresponding 90-day pause in the EU’s retaliatory tariffs, signaling openness to negotiation but also vigilance.
This calibrated pause, however, is no capitulation. French President Emmanuel Macron has described the suspension as a “fragile truce,” highlighting that “the 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and cars, and the 10% blanket tariffs, are still in place.” The French president called on the EU to “mobilize all available levers” to protect its economy and prevent third-country producers from flooding its markets. The tone was somber. Macron pointed out that “France is not the most exposed country: exports to the US represent 1.5% of our GDP, compared to 3% for Italy, 4% for Germany, and 10% for Ireland.” Nevertheless, he acknowledged the wider ramifications of Trump’s decision.
One of the few inadvertent favors Trump granted the EU was his decision to treat it as a single bloc in his tariffs, avoiding internal divisions by applying uniform rates. Yet internal tensions remain. France and Italy lobbied to shield their wine and spirits from retaliatory measures, fearing Trump might retaliate with a devastating 200% duty on European wine and French champagne. Meanwhile, Macron urged industrialists to withhold US investments, prompting unease in Germany, where officials fear that individual firms could bypass Brussels and seek concessions directly from the Trump administration.
Such divisions are dangerous, especially when countermeasures fall under different legal frameworks: while the European Commission controls tariffs unless blocked by a qualified majority, more aggressive responses — like restricting market access — require consensus. Policies like digital taxation remain national prerogatives, adding another layer of complexity.
The EU is still preparing to retaliate against the car tariffs and has not abandoned its earlier countermeasures. While these remain on hold during the 90-day pause, the machinery is ready. Von der Leyen emphasized that preparations continue should they become necessary. The EU’s new anti-coercion instrument (ACI) adds further weight, offering non-tariff responses such as market exclusions or strategic export bans. Though unlikely to be triggered unless tensions escalate, the ACI is a powerful deterrent.
Unlike Trump’s maximalist shocks, Europe is opting for incremental escalation. The initial retaliatory package targets a narrower range of US exports, amounting to 21 billion euros, in response to US tariffs imposed on 26 billion euros’ worth of EU metals exports. This asymmetry is deliberate: a message that Europe seeks negotiation, not war. Yet the EU is already preparing responses for future phases — starting with auto tariffs and potentially moving to broader retaliatory actions. This progressive buildup lends urgency to talks while leaving room for diplomacy.
European governments are also stepping in. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez unveiled a package worth 14.1 billion euros, including credit guarantees of 6 billion euros to cushion the blow on affected firms. Other EU countries are expected to follow suit. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is contemplating an aggressive interest rate cut to support demand. It is indeed increasingly likely that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates for a seventh time in the next few days. While many policymakers have avoided signaling a clear preference, confidence among investors and economists indicates that pressure from US tariffs will prompt another reduction from the current rate of 2.5%. These efforts are not merely reactive; they are part of a broader ambition to assert Europe’s economic sovereignty.
This trade clash could paradoxically offer Europe a chance to redefine its global role. While the United States under Trump retreats into protectionism, the EU’s predictable, rules-based system becomes a source of stability. Moreover, the bloc is still trading on the same terms with the rest of the world — a major advantage that limits the fallout from US tariffs.
Yet Europe has been hesitant to seize this mantle fully. Its reluctance to lower high agricultural tariffs or apply for the Indo-Pacific trade bloc Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) membership signals a cautious rather than visionary approach. Still, progress is underway: Austria has reversed its opposition to the EU-Mercosur deal, and even France is reconsidering its position.
Trade wars are rarely just about trade. Trump’s opaque remarks about linking the United States’ military presence in Europe to tariff negotiations highlight deeper strategic confusion. Europe, by contrast, is striving for coherence. Germany’s incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz saw Trump’s pullback as “a response to Europe’s resolve” and plans to visit Washington soon.
The EU may finally be learning how to play hardball on its own terms. For now, the EU is threading a needle: countering tariffs with targeted measures while avoiding a spiral of escalation and investing in autonomy without retreating into isolation. The outcome will shape not only transatlantic relations but also Europe’s place in a global economy increasingly defined by fragmentation. From a European perspective, this is not merely a reaction to Trump’s trade policy but also a matter of preparing for what lies ahead.
