Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye recently signed a joint defense pact in Makkah called the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement. This agreement is the fruit of years of close cooperation and intensive consultations dedicated to enhancing regional stability and security by strengthening collective defense capabilities and advancing strategic autonomy.
Signing the agreement in Makkah carries symbolic importance, reflecting the prominence of the agreement. At the same time, the pact is fundamentally driven by shared security, economic and strategic interests. As per the official statement, the agreement is “intended to strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression, and stipulates that any armed attack against any one of the three states shall be regarded as an attack against them all. It further provides for the enhancement of all aspects of defense cooperation among the three states.” With some caveats, this provision resembles the collective-defense logic of NATO’s Article 5, establishing that an armed attack against any one of the three states would be regarded as an attack against all. The agreement was the culmination of over a year of negotiations and several top-level meetings, rather than a spontaneous reactionary measure. The agreement did not emerge suddenly or due to certain triggers; intensive consultations have been taking place for years with the aim of bolstering defense and enhancing regional stability.
There are several factors that make this agreement significant. First and foremost, its timing is critical, as it reflects the three countries’ shared concerns over the rapidly changing security environment in the region. Saudi Arabia has for a long time warned about the dangers posed by instability in strategic sea lines of communication and the consequences of regional conflicts for global trade. The growing insecurity around the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz has exposed the vulnerability of critical infrastructure, energy supplies and maritime trade.
In the current context, the three countries have shared security concerns and distinct geopolitical considerations. From a Saudi perspective, the logic can partly be understood through the concept of balance of threat, as Riyadh seeks to respond to an increasingly complex combination of regional threats. Although the agreement is not directed against any particular country, it seeks to address the broader structural vulnerabilities in the regional security environment and strengthen collective deterrence. The three states are therefore combining complementary capabilities to enhance their individual security while contributing to a more diversified and resilient regional security architecture. For Riyadh, this also complements the broader efforts of enhancing strategic autonomy. Riyadh has spent recent years strengthening relations with global and regional powers while simultaneously investing in its own military capabilities.
The strength of the agreement actually lies in the complementarity of the capabilities that each country has. Pakistan has an advanced and experienced military force, and it is the only country in the Islamic world possessing a nuclear arsenal, which remains an extremely critical component of the collective deterrence. Pakistan’s military power rests not only on its conventional forces and air power but increasingly on its growing defense-industrial base. These capabilities have already provided important avenues for military cooperation with Saudi Arabia, while the new trilateral agreement, alongside ongoing bilateral developments, is likely to deepen and accentuate such cooperation. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan had already signed the Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) last year, and as per reports, Pakistan has deployed 8,000 troops, a squadron of fighter jets and an air defense system to Saudi Arabia.
Türkiye brings a particularly important dimension to the agreement through both its NATO membership and defense-industrial capabilities. As NATO’s second-largest military, Türkiye contributes expertise and access to NATO-standard technology, while its participation forms a layered security. In recent years, Türkiye has taken a big leap in defense exports. Ankara’s defense exports crossed the $10 billion mark in 2025, reaching approximately $10.05 billion, with its drone industry playing a particularly significant role. The Baykar drone alone recorded $2.2 billion in exports last year, highlighting Türkiye’s growing position as a major global supplier of unmanned aerial vehicles. Moreover, Türkiye recently unveiled its first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) named Yıldırımhan. Although production has not yet begun, such developments reflect Ankara’s ambition to expand its strategic missile capabilities. Ankara’s growing expertise in drones, missiles and indigenous systems has also made defense exports an instrument of geopolitical influence. It is important to note that the drone dimension is particularly critical in the current security environment, as the growing use of unmanned systems is fundamentally transforming the modern battlefield and the nature of contemporary warfare. Their relatively lower cost, ability to operate over long distances and increasing sophistication have made drones central to surveillance, precision strikes and asymmetric warfare.
For Saudi Arabia, cooperation with Türkiye also caters to its longer-term objective of developing its domestic defense industry. Regional powers continue to face vulnerabilities arising from their dependence on foreign defense suppliers, and Saudi Arabia has consequently placed defense localization at the center of its broader economic transformation, realizing the importance of indigenization. Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Military Industries reported that the localization of military expenditure reached 24.89% in 2024, with the target of exceeding 50% by 2030. Türkiye’s extensive military experience is particularly valuable in this regard, while its growing partnership with Saudi Arabia has already laid the groundwork for a broader and more institutionalized defense cooperation. In 2024, Saudi Arabia signed MoUs with Turkish defense companies like Baykar, ASELSAN and Fergani Space to support the localization of drone manufacturing and emerging space technologies. Analyzing the scope of the Makkah agreement in conjunction with these developments further highlights the shared vision for indigenization of defense capabilities, consequently catering to the broader deterrence strategy and strategic autonomy.
By projecting the pact as defensive and open to wider cooperation, the framework intends to retain greater diplomatic flexibility. This is particularly important for Saudi Arabia, which has pursued diplomacy and de-escalation despite being targeted on several occasions amid the Iran war. The agreement is rooted in a shared recognition that regional stability is essential to the broader interests of all three countries and that diplomacy remains the most important means of addressing regional disputes and preventing escalations. Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 requires sustained stability and investment, Türkiye’s geopolitical interests are rooted in trade and regional connectivity, while Pakistan faces high economic costs from prolonged instability in the Middle East. Therefore, energy and maritime security and the protection of trade routes provide important common ground for all three countries.
A broader geopolitical convergence is also evident in the three countries’ positions on various issues, including the Palestinian issue. Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan have consistently used their diplomatic weight to support Palestinian statehood and oppose Israeli aggression. Saudi Arabia has played a particularly important role, hosting extraordinary Arab-Islamic summits in Riyadh in 2023 and 2024 to coordinate collective diplomatic responses to the Gaza war. All three countries firmly believe that long-term regional stability cannot be expected without addressing the Palestinian issue, which enables them to align their political considerations closely. Ultimately, the Makkah agreement reflects the changing nature of how regional powers understand security and global geopolitical shifts, especially in the face of structural problems as well as evolving regional security risks. The agenda is primarily to diversify partnerships, develop indigenous capabilities and expand deterrence options. Rather than being viewed as an offensive arrangement that risks the intensification of regional instability or exacerbates the security dilemma, this agreement should be viewed as an effort to enhance the collective capacity to shape the regional security environment and assume greater responsibility for addressing security challenges in ways aligned with the priorities of the wider international community. This is also evident from the statements and responses from Riyadh, Ankara and Islamabad. All three countries seek to avoid overreliance on any single security guarantor and enhance the scope of deepening ties with a wider range of security partners, which has been an evident broader trend in recent years. The agreement in its current form and shape primarily intends to establish a flexible framework for cooperation that can adapt to evolving regional and global security dynamics.
