Since the launch of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on October 7, 2023, the region has undergone a series of rapid and consequential developments in Lebanon, the Red Sea and Iran, with the sudden fall of the Assad regime in Syria exemplifying the latest momentous shift. These developments underscore the volatile state of the region, marked by crises that often mirror the competition among regional and global powers over the Middle East’s future. Amid this uncertainty and instability, Syria stands as both a challenge and an opportunity — offering a chance to recalibrate regional dynamics for security and stability or risking a descent into a vicious cycle of rivalry and conflict.
Türkiye and Saudi Arabia, as two of the region’s most influential and capable powers, are well-positioned to address the vacuum left by the Assad regime and its regional and international backers. Together, they could mitigate the negative fallout, which extends beyond Syria to impact regional security as a whole. The Syrian situation may serve as a critical starting point for establishing a significant regional axis stretching from Riyadh to Ankara through the Arab Levant. This would bolster both countries’ strategic roles in ensuring regional security and stability, aligning with their broader ambitions. Furthermore, the deepening partnership, shared perspectives and pragmatic approach adopted by both countries could unify their efforts to potentially reshape regional dynamics and upcoming strategic arrangements.
This report builds on Rasanah’s ongoing focus on Riyadh-Ankara relations across various dimensions. Following a recent report on the evolution of bilateral defense ties, this report focuses on regional dynamics, particularly the growing convergence between the two countries on post-Assad Syria. It explores how this rapprochement could lay the groundwork for broader cooperation, potentially influencing a range of regional issues and crises in ways that align with the strategic interests of both countries.
Common Interests
Riyadh and Ankara share significant mutual interests in their bilateral relationship, which is rooted in historical ties. Over the past four years, relations have notably advanced, reaching a strategic level encompassing various sectors. The exchange of visits has highlighted a growing alignment of perspectives and a shared vision for cooperation between the two countries.
Economic data highlights the mutual benefits of Saudi-Turkish ties, with bilateral trade reaching 25.4 billion riyals in 2023, marking a 15.5% growth. Saudi exports to Türkiye accounted for 15.6 billion riyals, while Turkish imports to the kingdom totaled 9.8 billion riyals. Both countries are aiming to expand bilateral relations, focusing on key sectors such as mining, healthcare, technology, communications, tourism, infrastructure, information technology and defense.
Regionally, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye wield significant influence, with their interests intersecting across multiple spheres. Both countries, guided by a pragmatic leadership approach, share a vital interest in promoting regional security and stability. Their economic ambitions and mega projects depend on a secure environment, free from chaos, militia proliferation and weakened state institutions. By fostering a robust security framework, they aim to manage crises effectively and bring an end to ongoing conflicts in the region.
Both countries likely perceive a shared threat in the collusion of international powers to redraw the region’s map in pursuit of their own interests, coupled with the expansionist ambitions of some regional powers. This situation had led to widespread chaos and posed a significant challenge to the ambitious economic projects led by Riyadh and Ankara, which depend on a stable security environment to succeed.
Saudi Arabia and Türkiye seek to promote regional stability, as it would create the necessary conditions for them to position themselves as key players in international corridors passing through the region. They also aim to develop specific regional projects that connect the region to both the West and the East. A stable Syria plays a crucial role in these ambitions, holding vital geographical and strategic significance for both countries.
Internationally, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye share a common goal to assert their status among global powers. Both are emerging powers, pursuing an independent foreign policy that emphasizes diversification and a balanced approach with both the East and the West. They are also united in their support for a multipolar world order.
Additionally, the two countries possess significant soft power, enabling them to influence numerous issues within the Arab and Islamic worlds, as well as global affairs. Their interests align on several fronts, including the Palestinian issue, the situation in Syria and the crises in Iraq, Yemen and the Red Sea.
Cooperation and Competition in Syria
After a period of disrupted coordination, Saudi and Turkish interests have once again converged in Syria following the ouster of the Assad regime. Several signs point to them being the most invested and potentially the most influential players in shaping the future of Syria. This was evidenced by numerous indicators, including the fact that Turkish and Saudi officials were among the first foreign diplomats who visited Damascus, where they met Ahmed al-Sharaa, who presides over the new Syrian administration.
The first international visit by the new Syrian administration took place on January 1, when Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaybani traveled to Saudi Arabia with a delegation that included Syria’s minister of defense and the head of intelligence. The delegation met with their Saudi counterparts in Riyadh. The same week, the delegation visited Ankara, which marked the new administration’s second diplomatic visit. These visits highlight the significant role both Ankara and Riyadh play in shaping current Syrian developments. They also hold important implications for the evolving regional landscape, signaling that both countries are poised to play a central role in navigating the complex and sensitive phase that the region is currently experiencing.
The ouster of the Assad regime would not have occurred without Türkiye’s exceptional relationship with the new Syrian administration on one hand, and Riyadh’s proactive efforts on the other. Saudi Arabia has worked to secure recognition of the new Syrian administration, building trust and even taking the lead in offering support to help enhance its legitimacy domestically and internationally. Additionally, Riyadh has called for the lifting of sanctions that could impede the new administration’s performance.
In fact, both Riyadh and Ankara share several key interests in Syria and aim to work together to achieve them. First and foremost is the preservation of Syria’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, which they see as crucial for maintaining regional balance in the Levant. This interest is particularly significant for Türkiye, given its concerns over Kurdish aspirations for self-rule, which could pose a threat to its own territorial integrity. Moreover, Syria’s unity stands in the face of any regional countries that may have geopolitical expansionist projects.
In this context, Türkiye can depend on Saudi Arabia to address the critical Kurdish issue, which is a top priority for Türkiye. Saudi Arabia understands Türkiye’s concerns and has the influence and tools necessary to engage with the Kurdish factions. As a result, the kingdom is well-positioned to facilitate understandings between the parties, preventing the issue from being exploited by regional or international powers seeking to derail Syria’s transition.
Riyadh and Ankara are invested in Syria maintaining its sovereignty and opposing external influence, ensuring that the Syrian state controls all its territories and monopolizes the right to possess weapons and use force, rather than the country witnessing the further proliferation of weapons and militias.
Saudi Arabia and Türkiye are also committed to supporting Syria’s reconstruction, and together, they possess the resources and expertise to significantly shape the country’s future. As self-sufficient powers, neither is driven by geopolitical ambitions but instead pursue relationships based on mutual benefits and shared gains. Therefore, they can work together to advance Syria’s reconstruction. Türkiye, with its common border with Syria, is well-positioned to offer essential assistance for Syria’s reconstruction. It has valuable knowledge given its experience of governing Idlib and has the necessary competencies and industries to enhance the reconstruction effort. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia has the resources and influence to mobilize allied international powers to assist Syria or mitigate any negative impacts. The kingdom also has the leverage to push for the lifting of sanctions, facilitating the reconstruction process. Given the scale of reconstruction required after the war, no single power can revive Syria alone, making the partnership between Saudi Arabia and Türkiye crucial for the country’s recovery.
Syria — A Regional Gateway
Despite facing significant challenges at the regional level, the cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Türkiye is essential. This cooperation presents an effective path for Syria’s political transition, ensuring the country avoids descending into chaos. It also provides a means of liberating Syria from the negative influence of regional and international powers that desire to reconfigure the region according to their own interests. This is especially critical amid some nefarious regional projects and initiatives led by global powers like China, the United States and Russia.
There is no doubt that Saudi-Turkish cooperation in Syria thus far has been mutually beneficial, significantly enhancing both countries’ regional stature. This cooperation is likely to pave the way for deeper Turkish partnerships with the Gulf states, while positioning Saudi Arabia as a key architect of regional security and stability. The coordination also ensures that extremist factions will not reclaim control in the region. Their presence acts as a safeguard to curb the spread of such factions, replacing poverty — which fuels these factions — with development, while strengthening Syria’s sovereignty and control over its borders.
Moreover, this cooperation is viewed as a valuable experience for future efforts to achieve a stable and secure path for the broader region. It serves as both a testing ground for the two countries to explore their capabilities and potential for fostering regional stability and enhancing mutual interests across various sectors and arenas.
If their cooperation is successful, then, this could motivate both countries to replicate this experience in other regions and countries facing turmoil and instability, such as Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, Libya and the Horn of Africa. Both countries possess the influence and capability to play a significant role in these areas, especially given the growing understanding and rapprochement between them. The aforementioned countries currently seeking change after decades of conflict and upheaval may welcome this constructive involvement, which could play a crucial role in reshaping the regional landscape. This cooperation offers a regional vision that is distinct from the agendas of major powers seeking to impose their interests at the cost of the region’s security and stability.
This possibility is underscored by the fact that Saudi Arabia and Türkiye are both actively involved in addressing common issues. Saudi Arabia plays a significant role in mediation efforts in Sudan, while Türkiye has recently focused its efforts on acting as mediator in this crisis, following its pivotal role in resolving the diplomatic dispute between Ethiopia and Somalia. Given the strategic importance of the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa, both countries are well-positioned to coordinate their efforts to promote regional peace. This is especially relevant as the region is vital for Saudi Arabia, particularly in the context of the ambitious projects outlined in Vision 2030. Additionally, Türkiye has seen a growing interest in the region in recent years. The security of the region has become a priority for both countries due to the Houthi attacks on maritime traffic and the heightened military presence in the Red Sea.
However, the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Türkiye is not void of competition. This dynamic may affect their cooperation, as Saudi Arabia remains cautious about Türkiye’s longstanding project in its historical neighborhood, especially given the ruling party’s association with the Muslim Brotherhood’s (MB) orientations.
Additionally, some regional countries may be hesitant to join the Saudi Arabia and Türkiye partnership due to their firm stance against Islamist rulers. The responsibility of reconstruction and nation-building may also present a challenge, as it is uncertain whether the two countries can handle this burden alone without regional and international cooperation.
Moreover, Saudi-Turkish cooperation will likely face resistance from both regional and international powers, as it prioritizes regional interests over external ones. Some powers have alternative agendas aimed at weakening Syria or even pushing it back into chaos and internal conflict, which could undermine the efforts of Saudi Arabia and Türkiye.
Conclusion
At a critical regional juncture and despite the challenges, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye, through their pragmatic approach in Syria, have created an opportunity to redefine regional security. Syria serves as an important test that could propel both countries to strengthen their cooperation on other regional matters, potentially bringing about a new era of prosperity and political stability for the region after decades of instability and crises. Together, they could pave the way for a new regional cooperation framework that surpasses outdated models and structures, which have become largely symbolic or redundant, aligning with contemporary challenges and developments, including resistance to ideologically driven expansionist projects aimed at reshaping the region. This safe, pragmatic path could attract other regional powers that share the vision of Saudi Arabia and Türkiye, enabling them to propose initiatives that position them on the geopolitical map of international trade corridors — one of the most vital features in the emerging global system.
This path is particularly relevant as it holds the potential for regional growth and leadership at a time when Iran’s influence is waning, and US President Donald Trump’s potential shift toward a more isolationist foreign policy or focus on confronting China in the Indo-Pacific following the ceasefire agreement in Gaza prior to his inauguration. As the region faces significant questions about its future, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye must lead efforts with regional partners to safeguard their collective interests, defend the future of the region and ensure they play a prominent role in shaping any future arrangements. If they fail to assume this responsibility, external forces may step in with projects that are contrary to the interests of the region.