The prolonged Syrian conflict has left the country fragmented, with competing factions vying for power and external actors influencing the nation’s trajectory. Recent developments, including intensified Israeli airstrikes — reportedly numbering 480 between December 8 and December 10, 2024 — and territorial seizures by Israel, suggest a significant shift in the region’s dynamics. In this volatile context, the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the withdrawal of Iran’s military forces and proxies mark a turning point that could reshape Syria and the broader Middle East.
Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz told troops to fortify their positions in newly seized Syrian territory, making plans to send in reinforcements and equipment despite UN demands that the country retreat immediately and that the military operations are a violation of the 1974 Disengagement of Forces Agreement. According to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, the parties to the agreement must “uphold their obligations under this instrument, including by ending all unauthorized presence in the area of separation [AoS] and refraining from any action that would undermine the ceasefire and stability in Golan.”
Since Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an alliance of opposition groups, toppled the Assad regime on December 8, 2024, Israeli ground forces have crossed from the occupied Golan Heights into and beyond a previously demilitarized buffer zone in Syria. An Israeli air campaign has also destroyed most of Syria’s air force and air defenses. According to unverified sources, Israeli forces could also have advanced as far as Beqaasem, about 25 kilometers (15.5 miles) from the Syrian capital and several kilometers beyond the Syrian side of the buffer zone.
What is certain is that Israeli forces secured the summit of Mount Hermon on the Syrian side of the border, along with several other strategically significant locations considered by Israeli military forces as vital for maintaining stability in the area. Culminating at over 2,800 meters, Mount Hermon looms over the entire region, offering clear views from Lebanon to Syria – including over Damascus, which is located just 40 kilometers away from the mountain.
Israeli ground forces entered Syrian territory after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on December 8, 2024 ordered the military to seize the demilitarized AoS between the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and the rest of Syria. This zone was established in 1974, after Israeli forces captured the Golan Heights in 1967. Satellite photographs show new trenches and earth berms dug over the past few months along the length of the AoS. Israel unilaterally annexed the territory in 1981, but it is still considered to be occupied Syrian territory under international law. Israel has also seized on the chaos to destroy much of what is left of the Syrian armed forces, carrying out hundreds of air strikes and destroying in about 10 days what took Syria decades to build.
Saudi Arabia has described Israel’s Golan plan as reflective of its intent to “sabotage” Syria. In a statement, the Saudi Foreign Ministry expressed the kingdom’s “condemnation and denunciation” of the plan, describing it as part of an ongoing effort to “sabotage opportunities to restore security and stability in Syria” following the overthrow of Assad by opposition forces.
The collapse of Assad’s regime marks the end of an era and poses significant challenges for Syria’s future. The absence of a centralized authority could lead to further fragmentation, with regions controlled by the HTS, US-backed Kurdish forces, Turkish and Turkey aligned-forces and Israeli forces. Rival domestic and international actors will likely compete for influence, leading to protracted instability. Rebuilding a post-Assad Syria will require substantial international aid and political reconciliation among diverse groups.
The absence of pro-Iran forces leaves a vacuum likely to be contested by other regional powers, including Turkey, Israel, and other states from the region. Without Iranian backing, Hezbollah’s operational capabilities in Lebanon are significantly weakened, potentially reducing its influence in Lebanon and the region.
Israel’s strategy in Syria has evolved alongside these developments. Netanyahu’s pledge to “change the face of the Middle East” reflects a broader ambition to reshape regional power dynamics. Israeli actions, including intensified airstrikes and territorial gains in Southern Syria, highlight several objectives. Firstly, Israel aims to eliminate the remnants of Iranian influence and prevent any future military buildup by hostile actors near its borders. Secondly, the seizure of Syrian territory may serve as a buffer zone, ensuring Israel’s security against cross-border threats. Thirdly, by asserting its military and political dominance, Israel seeks to redefine its role as a central power in the Middle East. This Israeli military operation is officially “temporary” but it remains to be seen what conditions the Israeli authorities will accept to end the occupation of Syrian territory.
With the departure of Iranian forces and the fall of Assad, new alliances may emerge, potentially involving Turkey, the Gulf states and Western powers seeking to fill the void. Nevertheless, the ongoing conflict and Israel’s territorial seizures raise concerns about the impact on Syrian civilians, including displacement and access to essential services. The United States, Russia and other global powers may need to broker agreements to stabilize the region and prevent further escalation. Moreover, establishing a representative government that accommodates Syria’s diverse ethnic and religious groups is essential for long-term stability. International investment and reconstruction efforts will be critical in rebuilding Syria’s shattered economy and infrastructure. Eventually, neighboring states and global powers must collaborate to ensure that Syria does not become a breeding ground for extremism or a proxy battlefield.
Overall, since the fall of the Assad regime, several positive developments have occurred. Regional states, alongside multiple global powers and organizations, have reached out to the new interim government in Syria. The statement from the Aqaba Summit in Jordan addressing the latest developments in Syria is also noteworthy. Regional states decided to support “a peaceful, inclusive Syrian-Syrian political transitional process, in which all Syrian political and social forces are represented, including women, youth and civil society, with justice, sponsored by the United Nations and the Arab League, and in accordance with the principles, objectives and mechanisms of Security Council Resolution No. 2254, including the formation of an inclusive transitional governing body with Syrian consensus, and beginning to implement the steps specified by the resolution to move from the transitional phase to a new political system that meets the aspirations of the Syrian people with all its components, through free and fair elections supervised by the United Nations, based on a new constitution approved by the Syrians, and within specific timeframes according to the mechanisms adopted by the resolution.”
The fall of Assad’s regime and the withdrawal of Iranian forces mark a transformative moment for Syria and the Middle East. Israel’s intensified military actions and territorial ambitions further complicate the path to stability. While these developments could weaken adversarial forces, they also risk prolonging instability and exacerbating the humanitarian crises. The international community’s role will be crucial in shaping a post-Assad Syria that can emerge from conflict and rebuild as a unified, sovereign state.
