In recent weeks, the domestic security situation in Syria has been fraught by challenges, with reports of sectarian attacks in the Alawite-dominant coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartus. As per reports, violence erupted when armed remnants of the Assad regime targeted government strongholds which consequently prompted state forces to launch a military operation against this action. However, this precipitated communal and sectarian violence leading to hundreds of civilian deaths and casualties. The interim government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa acknowledged that some armed groups had intervened without the permission of the Defense Ministry and in response, he initiated a fact-finding committee to arrest and prosecute those responsible for the killings. President Sharaa met with the fact-finding committee to discuss the recent events on the Syrian coast and as per reports, some arrests have already been made. The ongoing violence highlights the volatile domestic security situation as well as the deep-seated interests of external players placing the interim government in a challenging position as it navigates regional ties, security concerns and efforts to de-escalate tensions.
Syria’s interim government had announced a general amnesty for former Assad regime soldiers, allowing them to reintegrate unless involved in crimes. However, fearing prosecution, the top figures of the Assad regime formed insurgent groups that have ties with Iran and Hezbollah. As per reports, these factions, including the Syrian Popular Resistance launched coordinated attacks against the Syrian security forces, leading to escalated violence in the country. The misinformation campaigns have further fueled violence in the country, complicating the security environment. The government had been cracking down on these factions for the past several weeks which eventually culminated in the recent crisis.
The escalation of violence comes amid the historic deal between the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the interim government in Syria. The SDF signed a deal to integrate its military and civilian institutions into the Syrian state, marking a significant step toward national unification. The agreement includes handing over border posts and oil fields while recognizing Kurdish rights. The deal is expected to de-escalate tensions with Türkiye and Turkish-backed factions. Last month, imprisoned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Öcalan called for the group’s disarmament, prompting the PKK to declare a ceasefire. However, Turkish military operations against PKK elements have continued. Ever since Trump’s return to office, there has been pressure on the Kurds in Syria as the US president has often highlighted the need to withdraw US troops from the region which would significantly weaken the security support for the SDF. Additionally, growing regional optimism and international support for the interim government may also have likely contributed to the SDF’s decision to enter an agreement with Damascus. While these developments could reshape the regional balance of power and enhance Türkiye’s influence, the broader implications remain uncertain, as Iran has historically leveraged Kurdish groups in its regional strategy.
Recently, Iran and Türkiye summoned each other’s envoys after Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan criticized Iran’s interference in Syria through armed militias. Referring to Iran’s reliance on proxy militias, Fidan said, “If you try to create unrest in another country by supporting a group there, another country might support a group in your country to create unrest for you.” Iran’s government Spokesperson Fatemah Mohajerani acknowledged the disagreements between Türkiye and Iran and called Fidan’s remarks “unconstructive.” Syria remains crucial for Iran’s sustenance of its regional proxies and for maintaining its foothold in Lebanon. Tehran’s responses suggest a concerted effort to stage a comeback by exacerbating tensions and exploiting the current instability. By fueling unrest, Iran aims to challenge the legitimacy of the interim government and ensure its long-term leverage in Syria’s evolving power structure. Iran is already on the defensive as its regional proxies face setbacks, and losing Syria would further weaken its strategic position. This comes at a critical time when Tehran is grappling with renewed US pressure and shifting regional alliances that endanger its influence. In the current geopolitical context, Iran is contending with diminished leverage and the risk of isolation if it does not recalibrate its regional approach.
Meanwhile, Israel is exploiting Syria’s instability to advance its security interests by expanding the buffer zone and consolidating control over strategic areas. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that the IDF would remain in Syria indefinitely to maintain a demilitarized buffer zone and protect Israeli borders. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized the need for the “complete demilitarization of southern Syria.” Israel claims to be acting in defense of the minority Druze community but in fact, is using this as a pretext to justify its regional agenda. This approach aligns with its broader strategy of maintaining military superiority and occupying strategic territories like the Golan Heights, further complicating the ongoing unification and recovery plans for Syria.
Amid the escalating violence, Sharaa has pledged to form a unity government through consensus-building and regional cooperation. Regional countries and several European nations have expressed support for his leadership and have urged the interim government to investigate the violence. Sharaa has been actively seeking international recognition for his government and has undertaken dialogue with the Gulf states and the EU. His outreach efforts reflect a pragmatic approach to consolidating power, balancing regional interests and positioning Syria for reintegration into the regional and global political and economic order.
