In a major political and military shift in post-Assad Syria, the head of the transitional government Ahmed al-Sharaa has reached an agreement with Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Commander Mazloum Abdi. The deal includes integrating Kurdish autonomous institutions into the Syrian state, enforcing a nationwide ceasefire, and backing government efforts against Assad loyalists and other security threats. This agreement marks a historic step in resolving Syria’s longstanding Kurdish question, which has fueled separatist tensions for decades. It also helps avert a looming crisis between the new government and one of Syria’s largest societal groups. Key questions now arise: What factors pushed the SDF to negotiate? How have regional and global dynamics shaped this accord? And what obstacles could threaten its success?
First: The Motives and Context Accompanying the Agreement
The agreement between the Syrian government and Kurdish leadership did not emerge in isolation but was shaped by multiple interconnected factors. These pressures ultimately compelled the SDF to accept integration into the Syrian state. Key among these were:
1- Giving Precedence to Dialogue and Negotiations Between the Damascus Government and SDF
Since Assad’s overthrow in December 2024, negotiations have been the preferred path for all parties. Early talks were marked by mutual goodwill, with the Kurds recognizing the new Syrian government and Damascus affirming equal political participation for all Syrians, including Kurds. However, disagreements arose over the fate of the SDF. The Syrian government insisted on fully dissolving the Kurdish forces, while Abdi demanded they remain a distinct entity under the Ministry of Defense within a decentralized system. This was initially rejected by Damascus. After two months of negotiations, the Syrian presidency announced a final agreement: the SDF would be integrated into state institutions, including border crossings, airports and energy resources, alongside a nationwide ceasefire.
2- Turkish-Kurdish Understanding Prior to the Agreement
The agreement was signed roughly two weeks after Kurdish leader Abdullah Öcalan issued a message from his Turkish prison, prompting many Kurds to reassess their strategies and fostering a political climate conducive to dialogue with Damascus. Although Abdi swiftly clarified that Öcalan’s statement was meant solely for his party members in Türkiye and was unrelated to the SDF, this historic shift had a significant moral and material impact on the group, considerably undermining its separatist ambitions.
3-The SDF Coming to Terms With Regional Developments:
The agreement comes amid significant regional shifts since October 2023, including strikes targeting Iran, its allies and the “Axis of Resistance,” as well as the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. These developments coincided with broad Arab, regional and international recognition of Sharaa as the leader of Syria’s transitional phase, alongside a shared determination among all major stakeholders to reject armed conflict and restore stability after 14 years of war. Additionally, uncertainty looms over the future of the US military presence in Syria under President Donald Trump, heightening Kurdish concerns about a potential US withdrawal. These factors have severely weakened the SDF’s negotiating position, compelling it to adopt a more flexible stance on previous demands. This shift is reflected in the agreement’s eight announced clauses, which, despite their general wording, signal the SDF’s acceptance of full subordination to Damascus’ new political and military authority.
Second: The Agreement’s Implications for Regional and Internal Actors
The agreement is expected to have far-reaching implications, not only for the Syrian government and its strategic interests in securing a deal with the Kurdish leadership but also for the Kurdish leadership itself and its motivations for reaching an understanding with Damascus. Beyond the domestic level, the agreement carries broader regional consequences, including the following:
1-Potential Implications for the Syrian Government:
The agreement with the SDF at this critical juncture in Syria’s transition provides the Damascus government with an opportunity to strengthen the foundations of the new state and restore its status. The SDF possesses a unique strength and distinctiveness that other armed factions in Syria do not have, controlling approximately 30% of Syrian territory — spread across the Al-Hasakah Governorate in the northeast, Raqqa, as well as parts of Deir ez-Zor and northeastern Aleppo. These areas also hold significant economic weight due to their hosting of key oil and gas fields, in addition to contributions to the agricultural sector. Thus, the agreement could pave the way for bolstering current authorities’ efforts to rebuild the Syrian economy.
The agreement also serves as a means for the new Syrian government to counter international criticism over alleged mass crimes committed by its forces while managing security developments along the Syrian coast. This comes amid reports of calls for the UN Security Council to convene a public session on the situation in the region. Against this backdrop, the Damascus government’s agreement with the SDF presents a strategic opportunity to reshape its image, portraying the new administration as committed to civil peace and capable of governing Syria’s diverse society through political consensus rather than military force.
2-Potential Implications for the SDF in Syria
The agreement between the Syrian government and the SDF commander marks a significant shift in relations, as it is the first official document directly signed between Damascus and the Kurdish leadership. Unlike previous dealings, which were limited to security and military coordination without formal political recognition, this agreement grants the SDF political legitimacy and solidifies its role as an influential actor in Syria’s future. Moreover, the agreement acknowledges the Kurdish community’s cultural and linguistic rights within the framework of the new Syrian Constitution — an issue that has long been central to Kurdish demands. This development brings Kurdish rights into the broader negotiations over Syria’s post-war restructuring, signaling a potential transformation in the country’s political landscape.
Another crucial factor that motivated the SDF to sign the agreement is the prospect of easing the mounting pressures it has faced since the collapse of the Assad regime. This comes at a time when Turkish threats of airstrikes on SDF positions in northern Syria persist. By integrating into the Syrian state, the SDF hopes to weaken Türkiye’s justification for future military operations against its territories. The agreement not only offers the Kurdish leadership a political safeguard but also potentially reduces the risk of further Turkish attacks on areas previously under SDF control.
3-Regional Impacts
At the regional level, the agreement poses a challenge to efforts by certain regional powers — most notably Iran and Israel — to undermine Syria’s stability and hinder the formation of a new state. Both Tehran and Tel Aviv have historically leveraged minority issues to advance strategies aimed at dividing and weakening Syria and its neighbors. Even after the fall of the Assad regime, they have continued on this path. Iran has sought to stir sectarian and security tensions in minority-populated areas, while Israel has escalated its military strikes on Syrian territory in an apparent attempt to shape the country’s political and military dynamics.
For Türkiye, the agreement serves as a means to weaken the SDF and curb its aspirations for autonomy, effectively blocking any prospect of formal recognition for a separate Kurdish administration in northeastern Syria. It also diminishes the security threat posed to Ankara, given the SDF’s ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) — a longstanding concern for Turkish authorities. At the same time, the deal also impacts Iran’s influence over the Kurdish issue. Tehran had previously leveraged the Kurdish file as a bargaining tool in its dealings with Türkiye. However, with the dissolution of the SDF’s special status, Iran’s ability to use this issue as a point of leverage against Ankara is significantly reduced.
Third: Potential Challenges That Could Hinder the Success of This Agreement
Although the signing of the agreement between the Syrian government and the SDF represents a pivotal and significant event in reshaping alliances within and around Syria in both the short and long term, by bringing together the two major forces in Syria into one framework — if implemented — it will undoubtedly face numerous challenges. While the agreement’s general provisions are positive and meet the demands of both parties to prevent its future undermining, the precise technical details of the agreement remain unclear. It is scheduled to be implemented in phases throughout 2025, especially concerning contentious issues such as the mechanisms for integrating the SDF and its civilian institutions with the Syrian government, whether as a single entity, through restructuring or in a hybrid form. Additionally, responsibilities for protecting the prisons and camps of ISIS in northern Syria and the fate of foreign fighters wanted by Türkiye need to be clarified.
Among the potential challenges ahead for the agreement are the stances of some opponents from other components present in SDF-controlled areas, calling for the participation of foreign cadres from the PKK, including some influential leaders and entities within the SDF who are loyal to the PKK and its leadership in the Qandil Mountains or those linked to foreign states or entities. There is a risk that these forces may engage in direct or indirect destructive actions, especially since the general lines of certain clauses of the agreement clearly contradict the projects and goals of several influential powers and blocs across both sides.
Moreover, many existing variables continue to destabilize Syria. Israel continues to bombard parts of the Syrian state, and it is also accused of inciting unrest among minorities, including the Druze, Alawites and Kurds. Iranian influence remains a concerning and potential threat that will determine the durability or fragility of the agreement.
Conclusion
This recent agreement between the Syrian government and the SDF marks a significant step toward an internal settlement and an end to Syria’s prolonged conflict. It restores political legitimacy to the Syrian government and bolsters its standing with the international community, while also granting the SDF official recognition as a key political and military force. However, the success of this initiative hinges on overcoming substantial political and on-the-ground challenges, as well as navigating the conflicting regional and international agendas tied to the Syrian crisis. The ongoing Turkish-Iranian rivalry and Israeli intervention remain major factors that could undermine the agreement’s future and cast doubt on its long-term viability.
