The sudden and unexpected fall of the Assad regime in Syria sent shockwaves across the globe, representing a major geopolitical upset and an even greater blow to Russia’s strategic ambitions in the region. The swift offensive by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) forces, which began on November 27 and resulted in the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad on December 8, raises critical questions about the efficacy and long-term value of Russia’s extensive involvement in the Syrian conflict and the region as a whole. Since 2015, Russia has invested significant military and economic resources in Syria to help the Assad regime stay in power, and in return, Russia maintained its presence in the country; however, on December 8, all these investments and efforts came to a halt.
The strategic defeat of Russia in Syria, culminating in the loss of a key ally in the Middle East, is poised to have far-reaching implications for Moscow’s geopolitical ambitions in the region and beyond. One of the most significant potential losses for Russia would be its control over the Hmeimim Air Base and the Tartus Naval Base, both of which are critical to its regional and global military operations. According to Financial Times Russian troops appear to be withdrawing from Syria following the sudden fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, however, their long-term status remains uncertain, especially under the new Syrian government. Despite reports of a possible agreement to allow the Russian bases to remain, this is unconfirmed at this moment in time, especially given signs of Russian evacuation of the bases.
These bases are not only crucial for Russia’s ability to project power in the Middle East but also serve as logistical hubs for its growing operations in Africa. Russia’s activities in countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mali and Libya rely heavily on the operational continuity of these bases. Their potential loss would disrupt supply lines and undermine Moscow’s ability to sustain its influence across Africa, a region where it has been rapidly expanding its footprint through military, economic and political engagements. Furthermore, losing access to the Mediterranean would deal a major strategic blow to Russia. The Tartus Naval Base, in particular, provides a critical foothold for countering NATO’s dominance in the region and securing Russian interests near southern Europe. In an effort to retain control of its critical military bases in Syria, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasized that Russia is undertaking all necessary measures to establish contact with Syrian authorities to ensure their security. This statement underscores the strategic importance of the Hmeimim Air Base and Tartus Naval Base to Russia’s regional and global military operations, highlighting Moscow’s determination to safeguard its foothold in the Middle East amid the evolving political landscape. Russia could potentially mitigate the impact of this loss by relocating its naval fleets to friendly countries like Libya, ensuring its continued presence in the Mediterranean, and maintaining its operational capabilities and flow in Africa.
The fall of the Assad regime has far-reaching implications for Russia beyond the loss of its strategic presence in the Middle East. It risks undermining Russia’s image as a reliable ally and a credible global power, which could have spillover effects across other regions. For instance, Central Asian countries like Kazakhstan, which have sought to balance their relationships with Russia and the West, may perceive Moscow’s failure in Syria as a sign of diminishing influence. This could push them closer to the West, further diminishing Russia’s regional aspirations.
Domestically, the repercussions could also be significant. The Assad regime’s collapse may lead to public discontent within Russia, raising questions about the current leadership’s ability to deliver on its ambitions of restoring Russia as a global superpower. Alexander Dugin, the Russian philosopher and political scientist and staunch Russian regime hardliner renowned for his advocacy of multipolarity and the Eurasian vision, openly expressed his discontent over the loss of Syria. He described it as a significant tragedy, reflecting a deep strategic and ideological blow to Russia’s ambitions in the region.
(Alexander Dugin X account)
The fallout may extend to military morale, not only undermining confidence in Russia’s foreign policy but also affecting the ongoing “special military operation” in Ukraine. The defeat in Syria could be seen as a broader failure of Russian strategy, leading to disappointment among the public and the armed forces alike.
In essence, the fall of Assad represents not just a tactical setback, but a strategic blow with the potential to weaken Russia’s influence, destabilize its alliances, and diminish domestic and international confidence in its leadership.
In an attempt to mitigate the impact of this setback, hardline supporters of the Russian regime have sought to deflect blame onto the Syrian regime and its armed forces. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasized that Russia had achieved its objectives in Syria long ago, stating, “Afterward, it was the [Bashar] Assad government that took charge in its own country, striving to ensure development, but unfortunately, the situation reached the point it did.” This narrative aims to distance Moscow from responsibility for the collapse, portraying it as a failure of Syrian leadership rather than Russian strategy.
To conclude, the fall of the Assad regime marks a profound geopolitical and strategic setback for Russia, with consequences that extend far beyond the Middle East. This loss not only jeopardizes Russia’s military foothold and influence in the region but also raises critical questions about its global credibility and leadership. Domestically, it risks sparking public discontent and diminishing confidence in Moscow’s ability to fulfill its aspirations of global superpower status. Internationally, it could weaken Russia’s alliances and embolden adversaries, while further complicating its engagements in regions like Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia.
