The United States brokered a historic peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan at the White House, aiming to end nearly four decades of conflict. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan pledged to respect territorial integrity and normalize relations. At the core of the agreement is the 43 kilometer US-controlled transport corridor branded as the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) that links Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan and Türkiye. The latest developments are poised to reshape South Caucasus geopolitics, enhancing US influence and strategic engagement in the region, particularly against the backdrop of Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s strained relations with Russia.
The peace deal is a breakthrough and a result of multiple bilateral meetings between the leaders in recent months. In July 2025, Pashinyan and Aliyev met in Abu Dhabi for peace talks. The discussions focused on border delimitation and normalization steps but produced no breakthrough. Armenia, which had initially opposed the establishment of the mentioned corridor, later agreed to the project following intensive US involvement. Beginning in March, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Aryeh Lightstone conducted multiple trips to negotiate the deal, framing the corridor as an opportunity for Armenia to strengthen ties with Washington and secure a buffer against potential Azerbaijani threats. The deal holds strategic significance for Azerbaijan, a key oil and gas producer, as it secures a more direct transport route to Türkiye and onward to Europe. Additionally, it could grant Azerbaijan greater flexibility by removing previous US defense restrictions, enabling deeper bilateral security cooperation. The deal potentially could end Armenia’s economic isolation by restoring ties with Azerbaijan and Türkiye, integrating it into Western trade networks. Armenia also obtains US security guarantees to replace Russia’s failed protection and counter pan-Turkic threats.
As per the agreement, the United States will control the corridor for 99 years. For the United States, the corridor enables it to establish a long-term strategic foothold in the region. The United States will now have control over key infrastructure projects, including rail, road, energy pipelines and fiber optics, which would also open avenues for US companies and enterprises in the region. Several US oil companies, including ExxonMobil, have recently signed agreements with Azerbaijan’s state oil company, reflecting Washington’s key interests in the region. The deal’s optimism stems from the protection of US economic interests, as Washington is likely to assume a security role, and regional countries would not likely challenge the Trump administration, given its unpredictable foreign policy and potential repercussions.
The deal diminishes Russian and Iranian influence in the region, reorienting transit and energy flows in the region. By brokering the peace agreement, the United States has also established itself as a key mediator in regional conflicts, enhancing its diplomatic leverage. Both the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders have expressed support for nominating Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, further cementing his image as a global peacemaker.
Iran views the corridor through Armenia as a threat that could alter borders, expand Turkish influence and introduce a direct US presence on its northern frontier. Beyond these security concerns, Tehran fears exclusion from emerging East–West trade routes, erosion of its role in regional transit networks and potential encirclement by US-backed infrastructure projects. Armenia and Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave relied heavily on Iran for trade and transport, with goods moving through Iranian territory via the Aras Free Trade Zone, giving Tehran control over key routes, customs and transit fees. Once operational, the TRIPP will bypass Iran, enabling both Armenia and Azerbaijan to reduce their dependence on Iranian logistics and, in turn, diminishing Tehran’s influence over regional transit and trade flows.
For Türkiye, the peace deal becomes important both in terms of its economic and strategic considerations in the region. Ankara welcomed the deal as a “historic opportunity” to advance regional peace while strengthening its ties with Azerbaijan through TRIPP. Beyond enhancing Türkiye’s role as a key transit hub between Europe and Asia, the peace deal revives prospects for long-stalled normalization with Armenia, including reopening the border closed since 1993. Ankara faces the challenge of managing Iranian concerns that the corridor sidelines its interests. However, ultimately, Türkiye sees the deal as an avenue to expand regional influence in the South Caucasus.
Despite recent progress, several critical issues remain unresolved in the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process. The most contentious is Baku’s demand that Armenia amend its Constitution to explicitly renounce any claims to Nagorno-Karabakh, reconquered by Azerbaijan in 2023. Pashinyan has confirmed work on a new Constitution but remains vague on the timing of a referendum, insisting it is a domestic process even as it directly affects the peace negotiations. Opposition forces, meanwhile, portray these constitutional changes as capitulation to Azerbaijani pressure and are mobilizing to resist them, underscoring the political volatility surrounding Armenia’s path toward a final settlement. Pashinyan has recently reaffirmed that Armenia must abandon the Karabakh movement, framing its closure as essential for achieving peace and national development.
Another concern is regarding the technical and regulatory details of the recent corridor, which are so far unclear. Pashinyan was absent during the recently held Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) Summit, and his absence is notable, as US influence on the corridor could challenge EAEU principles of free movement for goods and services. Since the corridor passes through Armenia, an EAEU member, any cargo moving within its territory would technically fall under EAEU customs rules. Russia, as the dominant power within the Union, advocates for EAEU oversight of both customs and security to ensure Armenia does not impose unilateral restrictions, reinforcing Moscow’s influence over regional trade.
Russia welcomed the peace deal but cautioned that external involvement could complicate South Caucasus stability. Moscow emphasized that lasting solutions should be developed regionally, with support from neighbors like Russia, Iran and Türkiye, rather than creating new divisions. Senior Russian officials, including Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk and Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, recently visited Armenia to clarify Moscow’s expectations, emphasizing trade and EAEU integration while signaling concern over the corridor’s potential to diminish Russian influence in regional transport and security. Russia remains wary of the US presence in Armenia and the corridor’s implications for South Caucasus geopolitics, viewing Washington’s involvement as a potential source of volatility and a challenge to Moscow’s traditional leverage.
Moscow could exert pressure on Yerevan, framing it as collective EAEU measures. Given that the “Trump Route” will not be operational immediately, Armenia is expected to continue following EAEU rules in the short term to avoid conflict, with no immediate risk of expulsion from the EAEU. Overall, Armenia’s strategy confronts the challenge to balance long-term integration and security priorities and immediate economic and political pressures, with Moscow closely monitoring the situation to protect its influence in the South Caucasus. Armenia’s foreign trade with Russia has sharply declined in early 2025, with the overall trade volume dropping 53% to $6.3 billion in the first four months compared to 2024. Tensions have deepened as Russia also recently blocked agricultural and construction shipments, signaling the use of trade measures as political leverage amid Armenia’s efforts to diversify foreign partnerships. The Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal marks a strategic pivot in the South Caucasus, enhancing US influence while constraining Russian and Iranian leverage. Provided that regional security and stability are maintained in the near term, US-controlled infrastructure and trade routes will reshape regional transit and energy flows, embedding Washington as a key arbiter. Moreover, recent developments complement European efforts to enhance energy security by diversifying imports amid the steep decline in Russian supplies amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
